a ‘pak yatra’ as ‘saarc yatra’_ - the hindu

3/3/2015 APakyatraasSAARCyatra?TheHindu

http://www.thehindu.com/todayspaper/tpopinion/apakyatraassaarcyatra/article6952989.ece 1/2

Today'sPaperOPINION

APakyatraasSAARCyatra?

SuhasiniHaidarThecoreissuesduringForeignSecretaryS.JaishankarsvisittoPakistanremainIndiasconcernsonterrorismandPakistansconcernsonKashmir

INTIMATEENEMY:AturningpointinthepastfewmonthsinPakistanisthePeshawarmassacre,giventheintenseangerithasgenerated,andthepushfromthePakistangovernmenttofighttheterrorwithin.PictureshowsagrievingmotherinPeshawarwholosthersoninthemassacrebyTalibangunmen.PHOTO:AP

SixmonthsaftertalkswithPakistanwerecalledoffForeignSecretarySubrahmanyamJaishankarlandsinIslamabadtodaytokickoffanewattempttoengagetheirgovernment.WhileIndianofficialshavetakencaretodownplaythevisitssignificance,callingitaSAARCyatranotaPakyatra,itseemsclearthatthetriphasbeenmadewithaspecialemphasisonPakistan.ThedecisiontoreengagewithPakistan,throughwhichevermeans,signifiestwothings:onethatthedecisiontocanceltalksinJuly2014wasonlyatemporaryoneforPrimeMinisterNarendraModi,withtheassumptionthattalkscouldberestartedatalaterpoint,andtwo,thatengagingPakistanisthenorm,ratherthananaberration.

However,thelastsixmonthshavealsoseenseveralsignificantshiftsinsidePakistanobservedduringarecentvisitbythiswritertheforeignsecretarymay,therefore,findpickingupthethreadsofthetalksmorecomplexthanitwasperhapslastJuly.

Shiftinpowerbalance

ThereisanobviousshiftinthepowerbalanceatthecoreofPakistan:thecivilmilitaryequation.Inrecentweeks,itisclearthatarmychiefGeneralRaheelSharifhasanewstatureinsidePakistan,withprimacyonallissues,notjusttheZarbeAzboperationandeffortsagainstterrorgroupsaspartoftheNationalActionPlanannouncedafterthePeshawarschoolmassacre.TheshifthasbeenacknowledgedinWashington,wherehewasreceivedbytheU.S.SecretaryofStateJohnKerryandinLondon,wherehemetPrimeMinisterDavidCameron.OnJanuary6,thegovernmentalsoannouncedthatmilitarycourtswouldtakeovermanyoftheterrorismtrials,ascivilcourtsaretooslow,andjudgesaretooeasilythreatenedorinfluencedintolettingmilitantsoff.However,itwouldseemthegovernmentofMr.NawazSharifhascometotermswiththeshift,andasaresult,hisgovernmentisenjoyingararespellofstabilitycomparedtothetensionswithboththeoppositionandthemilitaryofthepast.AtatrackIIconferenceorganisedbytheJinnahInstituteandCentreforDialogueandReconciliationinIslamabadlastweek,diplomatswereheardsayingtheArmysInterServicesPublicRelations(ISPR)wasnowtakingovermanyoftheForeignOfficesfunctions,andtheshiftinpowerequationsisimportantforIndia.AlthoughtheArmyGHQinRawalpindihasalwayshadavetoonIndiaPakistanrelations,thereisamarkedincreaseinstatementsfromtheISPRwinginrecentweeksthatshowagreaterinvolvementintheprocessaswell.GeneralSharifsvisittotheLoCandtheInternationalBorderjustbeforeMr.JaishankarsvisittoaccuseIndiaofopeningindiscriminatefiringandwarnofabefittingresponsecannotbeignored.

RelatedtothisshiftisthedramaticchangeinAfghanistanPakistanrelationsinthepastfewmonths.Sincehisswearingin,PresidentAshrafGhanihasdeviatedfromhispredecessorPresidentHamidKarzaisstancethatPakistansupportingtheTalibanwasthesourceofallofAfghanistansproblems.Instead,Mr.GhanivisitedIslamabaddirectlyafterhisfirsttripabroadtoBeijing,andalsovisitedtheArmyGeneralHeadquartersinRawalpindi.ThebonhomiehasbeenreciprocatedinfullmeasurebyPakistansmilitary,withvisitsbyGeneralSharif,hisISIchiefLieutenantGeneralRizwanAkhtar,andCorpscommandersofPeshawarandtheSoutherncommandtoAfghanistaninthepastmonthalone.PakistansmilitaryisalsoassumingaprimacyinthesoontobelaunchedtalksbetweentheAfghangovernmentandtheTaliban,whichalsoexplainsthewelcomeGeneralSharifhasreceivedintheU.S.,theU.K.andChina.ThisdependencecouldshiftthebalanceontalkswithIndia,asAfghanistanhassofarbeenanimportantallyforIndiaoncurbingtheLashkareTaiba.

Fightingtheterrorwithin

TheotherobviousturningpointinthepastfewmonthsinPakistanisthePeshawarmassacre,giventheintenseangerit

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3/3/2015 APakyatraasSAARCyatra?TheHindu

http://www.thehindu.com/todayspaper/tpopinion/apakyatraassaarcyatra/article6952989.ece 2/2

hasgenerated,andthepushfromMr.SharifsgovernmenttofighttheterrorwithinPakistan.AccordingtothePakistangovernment19,272suspectshavebeenarrestedin19,789countrywideoperationssincethelaunchoftheNationalActionPlanagainstterrorisminDecember2014.Mr.SharifisdoingthisintheteethofoppositionfrommanywithinhisowngovernmentwhoareclosetoradicalisedextremistgroupsandfromclericsacrossthecountrywhoataconferencethisweekoftheIttehadulTanzeemateMadaris,condemnedthegovernmentforitsunconstitutionalsteps.

Butdespitealltheactiontakensofar,novisiblestepshavebeenmadeagainstthegroupsthatIndiahasdemanded:HafizSaeedremainsfreetoaddressrallies,andgivesspeechesatleadinguniversitiesinthecountry,whilehiscommandersontrialfortheMumbaiattacksliveluxuriouslyinsidetheAdialajailinRawalpindi,leadingtheU.S.NationalIntelligenceChiefJamesClappertoconcludeduringatestimonylastweek,thatPakistansprovisionofsafehavenstotheLashkareTaibawillremainamajorirritantfortieswithIndia.ItwillbeMr.JaishankarstasktocontinuetopushforashiftinthispartofPakistanspolicy.

Significantly,thereisanincreasingacknowledgementinPakistanscivilsocietythattheuseofterrorasatoolofforeignpolicyhashurtPakistanscausebothinternally,aswellasinharmingthecauseofKashmiriseparatiststheyback.

Pakistancommittedthehistoricblunderofsendingintrainedandfullyarmednonstateactors,writesformerEditorM.ZiauddininaneditorialinTheExpressTribuneinaviewthatseemswidelyheld,wehadseeminglysucceededinreducingasixdecadelongfreedomstruggleintoaterroristadventureintheeyesoftheworld.ThearticlealsoseemstoindicatethatevenaslocalsupportfortrainingterrorgroupstoattackIndiadriesup,thegovernmentwillchoosetostepupitsattemptstointernationalisethepoliticalprobleminJammuandKashmir,untilIndiaandPakistanareabletorestarttalksontheissue.

Finally,Mr.Jaishankarwillbeexpectedtoarticulatethewayforwardonthenatureofthedialogueitself.ThetwocoreissuesremainIndiasconcernsonterrorismandPakistansconcernsonKashmir,andtheneedofthehouristomoveaheadontheminasustainedmanner,withoutthebreaksindialoguethathavedelayedthemintheprocess.

SeveralConfidenceBuildingMeasuresneedtobebolsterednow.WhiletheLoCceasefireisindangerofcollapseanddemandsnewmechanismstokeepitinplace,otherslikeanewvisaregime,andmeasurestofacilitatetradeandtravelneedtoberatified.

AsmallstartonCBMscouldbemadeeveniftheforeignsecretariesofIndiaandPakistanjustagreetorevisetheextremelybellicoseclosingceremonyatWagaheveryevening.ThiswasrequestedbytheBSFsoldiersthemselvesin2010,citingheavybackandkneeinjuries,butdespitetalksontheissue,neitherIndianorPakistanhavebeenabletogivethemanyreliefsofar.PerhapsalessonintheirplightissomethingbothforeignsecretariescoulddrawonforotherpartsoftheIndiaPakistandialogueaswell:itisimportanttoputonesfootdownfirmly,butwithoutdamagingoneselfintheprocess.

(SuhasiniHaidarparticipatedintheIslamabadDialoguetrackIIconferenceorganisedbytheJinnahInstituteandCentreforDialogueandReconciliationonFebruary2627,2015.)

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ThereisanincreasingacknowledgementinPakistanscivilsocietythattheuseofterrorasatoolofforeignpolicyhashurtPakistanscausebothinternally,aswellasinharmingthecauseofKashmiriseparatiststheyback

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