autopista mathematics
TRANSCRIPT
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Ajeet PrasadBhawna AnandHarmeet SinghKulbhushan TalwarManoj Kumar Vohra
Autopista CentGroup C
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10141718
al Case
2
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CLF|USD 39.308632CLF|CLP 19398.81
USD|CLP 493.5
CLP Convertedin USD 250,000,000 123,375,000,000
in CLF 13,000,500 252,194,229,405
375,569,229,405
CLP Convertedin USD 87,000,000 42,934,500,000
CLP Convertedin USD 121,000,000 59,713,500,000
102,648,000,000
478,217,229,405
21.46%
78.54%
FX Rates
Equity StructureEquity Capital
Total Equity (in CLP)
Total Invested Capital (in CLP)
Bonds Issue
Debt Structure
Subordinate Debt
Total Debt (in CLP)
Equity/Invested Capital
Debt/Invested Capital
Debt Equity Proportions
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Erb-Harvey-Viskanta Cost of Capita
Worksheet calculates cost of equity capital in n
Convert local currency cash flows to USD by the assumptio
annual depreciation in the FX rate is exactly equal to the dif
NOTE: User Inputs are in Purple
Risk Premium Calculation
Inputs Output
4.91
4.58
94.10132.00
77.60
53.52
54.96
19.48
9.99
Industry Adjustment
0.85 -0.69
Project Risk Mitigation
(-10 to 10; where 10=risk completely eliminated, 0=aver
Weights Score
Impact
on
Country
Premiu
m
0.40 5.00 -2.00
0.10 10.00 -1.00
0.15 8.00 -1.20
0.05 5.00 -0.25
0.05 10.00 -0.50
0.05 5.00 -0.25
0.05 -5.00 0.25
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0.05 9.00 -0.45
0.03 9.00 -0.22
0.05 9.00 -0.45
0.03 9.00 -0.22
1.00
Project Cost of Capital 12.50
Cash Flow Check List:
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Worksheet
ominal U.S. dollar terms.
n of Purchasing Power Parity, i.e. the expected
ference between local and U.S. inflation rates.
Category
U.S. risk free in %
U.S. risk premium in %
Current U.S. Credit RatingCurrent Sovereign Spread in basis points
Institutional Investor country credit rating (0-100) [not used in calculation]
Implied Institutional Investor CCR based on Spread
Implied Institutional Investor CCR based on Spread - coefficients estimated through Sept. 01
Anchored Cost of Equity Capital for project of average risk in country (ICCRC)
Country Risk Premium
Beta (Industry)Sector adjustment
age for country)
Sovereign
Currency (direct, e.g. convertibility)
Currency (indirect, e.g. political risk caused by crisis)
Expropriation (direct, diversion, creeping)
Commercial International partners
Involvement of Multilateral Agencies
Sensitivity of Project to wars, strikes, terrorism
Sensitivity of Project to natural disasters
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Operating
Resource risk
Technology risk
Financial
Probability of Default
Political Risk Insurance
Sum of weights (make sure = 1.00)
Operating-Precompletion
Resources available (quantity/quality) -part not in discount rate
Technology (proven technology) -part not in discount rate
Timing risks (penalties for milestones)
Operating-Post-completion
Market risks (prices of outputs)
Supply/input risk (availability)
Throughput risk (material put through plus efficiency of systems operation)
Operating costs
Sovereign
Inflation assumptions/Exchange rates
Real Options
Input mix or process flexibility
Output mix or product flexibility
Abandonment or termination
Temporary stop or shutdown
Intensity or operating scale
ExpansionContraction
Initiation or deferment
Interproject/intraproject
Growth
Shadow costs
Financial flexibility
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Complex options which might diminish or augment value of other options
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Erb-Harvey-Viskanta Cost of Capita
Worksheet calculates cost of equity capital in n
Convert local currency cash flows to USD by the assumptio
annual depreciation in the FX rate is exactly equal to the dif
NOTE: User Inputs are in Purple
Risk Premium Calculation
Inputs Output
4.91
4.58
94.10132.00
77.60
53.52
54.96
19.48
9.99
Industry Adjustment
0.95 -0.23
Project Risk Mitigation
(-10 to 10; where 10=risk completely eliminated, 0=aver
Weights Score
Impact
on
Country
Premiu
m
0.40 5.00 -2.00
0.10 10.00 -1.00
0.15 8.00 -1.20
0.05 5.00 -0.25
0.05 10.00 -0.50
0.05 5.00 -0.25
0.05 -5.00 0.25
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0.05 9.00 -0.45
0.03 9.00 -0.22
0.05 9.00 -0.45
0.03 9.00 -0.22
1.00
Project Cost of Capital 12.96
Cash Flow Check List:
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Worksheet
ominal U.S. dollar terms.
n of Purchasing Power Parity, i.e. the expected
ference between local and U.S. inflation rates.
Category
U.S. risk free in %
U.S. risk premium in %
Current U.S. Credit RatingCurrent Sovereign Spread in basis points
Institutional Investor country credit rating (0-100) [not used in calculation]
Implied Institutional Investor CCR based on Spread
Implied Institutional Investor CCR based on Spread - coefficients estimated through Sept. 01
Anchored Cost of Equity Capital for project of average risk in country (ICCRC)
Country Risk Premium
Beta (Industry)Sector adjustment
age for country)
Sovereign
Currency (direct, e.g. convertibility)
Currency (indirect, e.g. political risk caused by crisis)
Expropriation (direct, diversion, creeping)
Commercial International partners
Involvement of Multilateral Agencies
Sensitivity of Project to wars, strikes, terrorism
Sensitivity of Project to natural disasters
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Operating
Resource risk
Technology risk
Financial
Probability of Default
Political Risk Insurance
Sum of weights (make sure = 1.00)
Operating-Precompletion
Resources available (quantity/quality) -part not in discount rate
Technology (proven technology) -part not in discount rate
Timing risks (penalties for milestones)
Operating-Post-completion
Market risks (prices of outputs)
Supply/input risk (availability)
Throughput risk (material put through plus efficiency of systems operation)
Operating costs
Sovereign
Inflation assumptions/Exchange rates
Real Options
Input mix or process flexibility
Output mix or product flexibility
Abandonment or termination
Temporary stop or shutdown
Intensity or operating scale
ExpansionContraction
Initiation or deferment
Interproject/intraproject
Growth
Shadow costs
Financial flexibility
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Complex options which might diminish or augment value of other options
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Erb-Harvey-Viskanta Cost of Capita
Worksheet calculates cost of equity capital in n
Convert local currency cash flows to USD by the assumptio
annual depreciation in the FX rate is exactly equal to the dif
NOTE: User Inputs are in Purple
Risk Premium Calculation
Inputs Output
4.91
4.58
94.10132.00
77.60
53.52
54.96
19.48
9.99
Industry Adjustment
1.05 0.23
Project Risk Mitigation
(-10 to 10; where 10=risk completely eliminated, 0=aver
Weights Score
Impact
on
Country
Premiu
m
0.40 5.00 -2.00
0.10 10.00 -1.00
0.15 8.00 -1.20
0.05 5.00 -0.25
0.05 10.00 -0.50
0.05 5.00 -0.25
0.05 -5.00 0.25
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0.05 9.00 -0.45
0.03 9.00 -0.22
0.05 9.00 -0.45
0.03 9.00 -0.22
1.00
Project Cost of Capital 13.41
Cash Flow Check List:
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Worksheet
ominal U.S. dollar terms.
n of Purchasing Power Parity, i.e. the expected
ference between local and U.S. inflation rates.
Category
U.S. risk free in %
U.S. risk premium in %
Current U.S. Credit RatingCurrent Sovereign Spread in basis points
Institutional Investor country credit rating (0-100) [not used in calculation]
Implied Institutional Investor CCR based on Spread
Implied Institutional Investor CCR based on Spread - coefficients estimated through Sept. 01
Anchored Cost of Equity Capital for project of average risk in country (ICCRC)
Country Risk Premium
Beta (Industry)Sector adjustment
age for country)
Sovereign
Currency (direct, e.g. convertibility)
Currency (indirect, e.g. political risk caused by crisis)
Expropriation (direct, diversion, creeping)
Commercial International partners
Involvement of Multilateral Agencies
Sensitivity of Project to wars, strikes, terrorism
Sensitivity of Project to natural disasters
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Operating
Resource risk
Technology risk
Financial
Probability of Default
Political Risk Insurance
Sum of weights (make sure = 1.00)
Operating-Precompletion
Resources available (quantity/quality) -part not in discount rate
Technology (proven technology) -part not in discount rate
Timing risks (penalties for milestones)
Operating-Post-completion
Market risks (prices of outputs)
Supply/input risk (availability)
Throughput risk (material put through plus efficiency of systems operation)
Operating costs
Sovereign
Inflation assumptions/Exchange rates
Real Options
Input mix or process flexibility
Output mix or product flexibility
Abandonment or termination
Temporary stop or shutdown
Intensity or operating scale
ExpansionContraction
Initiation or deferment
Interproject/intraproject
Growth
Shadow costs
Financial flexibility
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Complex options which might diminish or augment value of other options
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BETA 0.85 0.95 1.05Cost of Equity 12.50 12.96 13.41Cost of Debt 6.5 6.5 6.5
Tax Rate 17% 17% 17%After Tax Cost Of Debt 5.395 5.395 5.395Debt/Invested Capital 78.54% 78.54% 78.54%Equity/Invested Capital 21.46% 21.46% 21.46%WACC 6.92 7.02 7.12
EHV Modal
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Risk free rate ( Rf ) 4.91Country Risk Premium 2.1
Market Risk Premium 4.58
1Total Risk Premium 6.68
BETA 0.85 0.95 1.05
Cost of Equity 10.588 11.256 11.924Cost of Debt 6.5 6.5 6.5Tax Rate 17% 17% 17%
After Tax Cost Of Debt 5.395 5.395 5.395Debt/Invested Capital 78.54% 78.54% 78.54%Equity/Invested Capital 21.46% 21.46% 21.46%WACC 6.51 6.65 6.80
= % of Reveneue Derived Locally/Avg of Revenue Derived Locally for Similair Project
Damodran Modified ModalCost of Equity
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Year 2008 2009 2010 2011
EBIT $12,090,173.9 $16,023,897.1 $23,971,445.1 $31,238,057.7
Depriciation &
Amoritization $14,176,406.4 $16,268,971.1 $18,658,171.0 $20,602,243.3plusDepriciation &Amoritization $26,266,580.3 $32,292,868.1 $42,629,616.1 $51,840,301.0
Changes in working
capital ($2,495,040.9) ($2,331,551.0) ($7,579,903.0) ($6,753,610.2)
plusChanges in
working capital $23,771,539.5 $29,961,317.1 $35,049,713.1 $45,086,690.8
capital expenditure ($3,152,186.1) ($3,710,123.1) ($4,366,814.9) ($4,951,920.0)
minuscapital
ex enditure $20,619,353.4 $26,251,194.1 $30,682,898.3 $40,134,770.8
Changes in other
Assets & Liabilities $2,782,329.9 $2,893,623.1 $3,009,368.0 $3,129,742.8
plusChanges in
other Assets &
Liabilities $23,401,683.3 $29,144,817.2 $33,692,266.3 $43,264,513.5Unlevered Cashflows $23,401,683.3 $29,144,817.2 $33,692,266.3 $43,264,513.5
USD|CLP 493.5
WACC 6.51
Year 1 2 3 4
Discounted
Cashflows $21,971,418.0 $25,691,136.4 $27,884,521.3 $33,618,302.6
Discounted
Cashflows Sum
$1,152,575,464.4
minusLong Term
Debt ($375,569,230.0)
minusSubordinate
Debt ($59,713,500.0)
NPV $717,292,734.4
Discounted
Cashflows Sum in
USD
$1,453,480.7
Value of 48% stake(in mil l ion USD)
697.6707447
WACC 6.65Year 1 2 3 4
Discounted
Cashflows $21,941,879.6 $25,622,104.5 $27,772,208.5 $33,437,881.1
Discounted
Cashflows Sum
$1,132,470,722.4
minusLong Term
Debt ($375,569,230.0)
Modified CAP
Unlevered
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minusSubordinate
Debt ($59,713,500.0)
NPV $697,187,992.4
Discounted
Cashflows Sum
$1,412,741.6
Value of 48% stake(in mil l ion USD)
678.1159804
WACC 6.80
Year 1 2 3 4
Discounted
Cashflows $21,912,420.6 $25,553,350.4 $27,660,498.2 $33,258,668.3
Discounted
Cashflows Sum
$1,112,817,477.4
minusLong Term
Debt ($375,569,230.0)
minusSubordinate
Debt ($59,713,500.0)
NPV $677,534,747.4
Discounted
Cashflows Sum
$1,372,917.4
Value of 48% stake(in mil l ion USD)
659.0003623
WACC 6.92
Year 1 2 3 4
Discounted
Cashflows $21,887,141.0 $25,494,424.5 $27,564,875.8 $33,105,456.3
Discounted
Cashflows Sum
$1,096,262,705.6
minusLong Term
Debt ($375,569,230.0)minusSubordinate
Debt ($59,713,500.0)
NPV $660,979,975.6
Discounted
Cashflows Sum
$1,339,371.8
Value of 48% stake(in mil l ion USD)
642.8984565
WACC 7.02
Year 1 2 3 4
Discounted
Cashflows $21,867,035.1 $25,447,606.9 $27,488,981.0 $32,983,979.1
Discounted
Cashflows Sum
$1,083,296,965.8
minusLong Term
Debt ($375,569,230.0)
minusSubordinate
Debt ($59,713,500.0)
NPV $648,014,235.8
Discounted
Cashflows Sum
$1,313,098.8
EHV Eval
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Value of 48% stake(in mil l ion USD)
630.2874026
WACC 7.12
Year 1 2 3 4
Discounted
Cashflows $21,846,966.2 $25,400,918.1 $27,413,364.6 $32,863,058.6
DiscountedCashflows Sum
$1,070,529,808.3
minusLong Term
Debt ($375,569,230.0)
minusSubordinate
Debt ($59,713,500.0)
NPV $635,247,078.3
Discounted
Cashflows Sum
$1,287,228.1
Value of 48% stake(in mil l ion USD)
617.8694987
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2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
$39,552,916.8 $49,066,473.1 $59,950,676.0 $72,402,033.3 $78,293,109.9
$22,732,300.8 $25,063,279.9 $27,610,780.2 $30,390,974.4 $30,944,890.1
$62,285,217.6 $74,129,753.1 $87,561,456.3 $102,793,007.7 $109,238,000.0
($7,659,148.4) ($8,685,474.3) ($9,849,327.9) ($11,169,137.8) ($4,724,344.3)
$54,626,069.2 $65,444,278.7 $77,712,128.4 $91,623,869.9 $104,513,655.7
($2,807,738.6) ($3,183,975.6) ($3,610,628.4) ($4,094,452.6) ($4,299,101.5)
$51,818,330.5 $62,260,303.1 $74,101,500.0 $87,529,417.3 $100,214,554.3
$3,254,932.5 $3,385,129.8 $3,520,535.0 $3,661,356.4 $3,807,810.6
$55,073,263.0 $65,645,432.9 $77,622,035.0 $91,190,773.7 $104,022,364.9$55,073,263.0 $65,645,432.9 $77,622,035.0 $91,190,773.7 $104,022,364.9
5 6 7 8 9
$40,178,688.4 $44,964,570.8 $49,918,548.6 $55,060,330.6 $58,969,253.1
5 6 7 8 9
$39,909,332.5 $44,603,085.5 $49,450,665.6 $54,470,924.8 $58,259,573.7
Evaluations (in 1000 CLP)
ashflows(in 1000 CLP)
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5 6 7 8 9
$39,642,140.6 $44,244,986.1 $48,987,787.9 $53,888,607.6 $57,559,371.4
5 6 7 8 9
$39,413,998.9 $43,939,604.8 $48,593,546.1 $53,393,256.2 $56,964,484.1
5 6 7 8 9
$39,233,299.8 $43,697,978.8 $48,281,934.6 $53,002,132.7 $56,495,255.0
uations (in 1000 CLP)
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5 6 7 8 9
$39,053,593.8 $43,457,901.6 $47,972,604.7 $52,614,229.4 $56,030,316.6
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2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
$84,527,021.8 $91,123,325.2 $98,102,674.2 $105,486,882.6 $113,298,988.2
$31,478,220.0 $31,987,520.7 $32,469,055.9 $32,918,775.8 $33,332,295.1
$116,005,241.9 $123,110,845.9 $130,571,730.1 $138,405,658.5 $146,631,283.3
($4,960,476.4) ($5,208,411.0) ($5,468,737.8) ($5,742,076.2) ($6,029,076.7)
$111,044,765.5 $117,902,434.9 $125,102,992.3 $132,663,582.3 $140,602,206.6
($4,513,979.2) ($4,739,596.9) ($4,976,491.4) ($5,225,226.4) ($5,486,393.7)
$106,530,786.3 $113,162,838.0 $120,126,500.9 $127,438,355.9 $135,115,813.0
$3,960,123.0 $4,118,528.0 $4,283,269.1 $4,454,599.8 $4,632,783.8
$110,490,909.3 $117,281,366.0 $124,409,770.0 $131,892,955.7 $139,748,596.8$110,490,909.3 $117,281,366.0 $124,409,770.0 $131,892,955.7 $139,748,596.8
10 11 12 13 14
$58,808,004.2 $58,607,054.9 $58,369,551.9 $58,098,438.8 $57,796,469.0
10 11 12 13 14
$58,022,155.5 $57,746,153.0 $57,434,819.4 $57,091,191.2 $56,718,102.2
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10 11 12 13 14
$57,247,842.6 $56,899,028.4 $56,516,281.5 $56,102,724.4 $55,661,264.0
10 11 12 13 14
$56,590,812.8 $56,181,112.9 $55,738,817.1 $55,267,115.6 $54,768,972.5
10 11 12 13 14
$56,073,104.7 $55,616,016.2 $55,127,481.7 $54,610,741.5 $54,068,800.4
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10 11 12 13 14
$55,560,601.7 $55,057,114.6 $54,523,403.5 $53,962,754.6 $53,378,209.9
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2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
$121,563,320.0 $130,305,570.4 $139,552,870.5 $149,333,869.6 $159,678,819.3
$33,704,869.4 $34,031,370.3 $34,306,259.1 $34,523,558.5 $34,676,822.1
$155,268,189.4 $164,336,940.7 $173,859,129.7 $183,857,428.1 $194,355,641.4
($6,330,422.0) ($6,646,829.1) ($6,979,050.9) ($7,327,877.9) ($7,694,139.8)
$148,937,767.4 $157,690,111.6 $166,880,078.7 $176,529,550.2 $186,661,501.5
($5,760,614.6) ($6,048,541.6) ($6,350,859.8) ($6,668,288.5) ($7,001,582.9)
$143,177,152.8 $151,641,570.0 $160,529,218.9 $169,861,261.7 $179,659,918.6
$4,818,095.2 $5,010,819.0 $5,211,251.8 $5,419,701.8 $5,636,489.9
$147,995,248.0 $156,652,389.0 $165,740,470.7 $175,280,963.5 $185,296,408.5$147,995,248.0 $156,652,389.0 $165,740,470.7 $175,280,963.5 $185,296,408.5
15 16 17 18 19
$57,466,217.3 $57,110,090.9 $56,730,340.0 $56,329,067.2 $55,908,237.2
15 16 17 18 19
$56,318,196.2 $55,893,939.3 $55,447,631.0 $54,981,414.8 $54,497,288.1
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15 16 17 18 19
$55,194,605.9 $54,705,267.5 $54,195,590.1 $53,667,750.3 $53,123,771.3
15 16 17 18 19
$54,247,140.0 $53,704,173.4 $53,142,443.6 $52,564,149.6 $51,971,329.9
15 16 17 18 19
$53,504,443.9 $52,920,252.9 $52,318,617.9 $51,701,751.0 $51,071,699.2
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15 16 17 18 19
$52,772,583.9 $52,148,479.5 $51,508,302.2 $50,854,273.9 $50,188,445.8
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2027 2028 2029 2030
$170,619,662.2 $182,190,125.2 $194,425,818.3 $207,364,338.3
$34,759,103.1 $34,762,920.3 $34,680,221.3 $34,502,345.2
$205,378,765.3 $216,953,045.5 $229,106,039.7 $241,866,683.6
($8,078,708.3) ($8,482,498.3) ($8,906,470.6) ($9,351,633.8)
$197,300,057.0 $208,470,547.1 $220,199,569.1 $232,515,049.8
($7,351,536.0) ($7,718,980.5) ($8,104,790.6) ($8,509,884.2)
$189,948,520.9 $200,751,566.6 $212,094,778.5 $224,005,165.5
$5,861,949.5 $6,096,427.5 $6,340,284.6 $6,593,896.0
$195,810,470.4 $206,847,994.1 $218,435,063.1 $230,599,061.5$195,810,470.4 $206,847,994.1 $218,435,063.1 $230,599,061.5
20 21 22 23
$55,469,684.7 $55,015,123.2 $54,546,151.9 $54,064,263.4
20 21 22 23
$53,997,111.9 $53,482,619.0 $52,955,422.3 $52,417,022.7
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20 21 22 23
$52,565,532.1 $51,994,777.7 $51,413,127.4 $50,822,083.2
20 21 22 23
$51,365,873.5 $50,749,529.4 $50,123,916.3 $49,490,531.5
20 21 22 23
$50,430,354.6 $49,779,465.7 $49,120,646.6 $48,455,386.6
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20 21 22 23
$49,512,709.8 $48,828,809.7 $48,138,351.7 $47,442,813.7
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7/28/2019 AutoPista Mathematics
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1 2 3
Damodran Valuation 697.67 678.12 659.00 678.26
EHV Valuation 642.90 630.29 617.87 630.35
Value to Quote 654.31
Values in million USD