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  • 7/28/2019 AutoPista Mathematics

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    Ajeet PrasadBhawna AnandHarmeet SinghKulbhushan TalwarManoj Kumar Vohra

    Autopista CentGroup C

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    10141718

    al Case

    2

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    CLF|USD 39.308632CLF|CLP 19398.81

    USD|CLP 493.5

    CLP Convertedin USD 250,000,000 123,375,000,000

    in CLF 13,000,500 252,194,229,405

    375,569,229,405

    CLP Convertedin USD 87,000,000 42,934,500,000

    CLP Convertedin USD 121,000,000 59,713,500,000

    102,648,000,000

    478,217,229,405

    21.46%

    78.54%

    FX Rates

    Equity StructureEquity Capital

    Total Equity (in CLP)

    Total Invested Capital (in CLP)

    Bonds Issue

    Debt Structure

    Subordinate Debt

    Total Debt (in CLP)

    Equity/Invested Capital

    Debt/Invested Capital

    Debt Equity Proportions

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    Erb-Harvey-Viskanta Cost of Capita

    Worksheet calculates cost of equity capital in n

    Convert local currency cash flows to USD by the assumptio

    annual depreciation in the FX rate is exactly equal to the dif

    NOTE: User Inputs are in Purple

    Risk Premium Calculation

    Inputs Output

    4.91

    4.58

    94.10132.00

    77.60

    53.52

    54.96

    19.48

    9.99

    Industry Adjustment

    0.85 -0.69

    Project Risk Mitigation

    (-10 to 10; where 10=risk completely eliminated, 0=aver

    Weights Score

    Impact

    on

    Country

    Premiu

    m

    0.40 5.00 -2.00

    0.10 10.00 -1.00

    0.15 8.00 -1.20

    0.05 5.00 -0.25

    0.05 10.00 -0.50

    0.05 5.00 -0.25

    0.05 -5.00 0.25

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    0.05 9.00 -0.45

    0.03 9.00 -0.22

    0.05 9.00 -0.45

    0.03 9.00 -0.22

    1.00

    Project Cost of Capital 12.50

    Cash Flow Check List:

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    Worksheet

    ominal U.S. dollar terms.

    n of Purchasing Power Parity, i.e. the expected

    ference between local and U.S. inflation rates.

    Category

    U.S. risk free in %

    U.S. risk premium in %

    Current U.S. Credit RatingCurrent Sovereign Spread in basis points

    Institutional Investor country credit rating (0-100) [not used in calculation]

    Implied Institutional Investor CCR based on Spread

    Implied Institutional Investor CCR based on Spread - coefficients estimated through Sept. 01

    Anchored Cost of Equity Capital for project of average risk in country (ICCRC)

    Country Risk Premium

    Beta (Industry)Sector adjustment

    age for country)

    Sovereign

    Currency (direct, e.g. convertibility)

    Currency (indirect, e.g. political risk caused by crisis)

    Expropriation (direct, diversion, creeping)

    Commercial International partners

    Involvement of Multilateral Agencies

    Sensitivity of Project to wars, strikes, terrorism

    Sensitivity of Project to natural disasters

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    Operating

    Resource risk

    Technology risk

    Financial

    Probability of Default

    Political Risk Insurance

    Sum of weights (make sure = 1.00)

    Operating-Precompletion

    Resources available (quantity/quality) -part not in discount rate

    Technology (proven technology) -part not in discount rate

    Timing risks (penalties for milestones)

    Operating-Post-completion

    Market risks (prices of outputs)

    Supply/input risk (availability)

    Throughput risk (material put through plus efficiency of systems operation)

    Operating costs

    Sovereign

    Inflation assumptions/Exchange rates

    Real Options

    Input mix or process flexibility

    Output mix or product flexibility

    Abandonment or termination

    Temporary stop or shutdown

    Intensity or operating scale

    ExpansionContraction

    Initiation or deferment

    Interproject/intraproject

    Growth

    Shadow costs

    Financial flexibility

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    Complex options which might diminish or augment value of other options

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    Erb-Harvey-Viskanta Cost of Capita

    Worksheet calculates cost of equity capital in n

    Convert local currency cash flows to USD by the assumptio

    annual depreciation in the FX rate is exactly equal to the dif

    NOTE: User Inputs are in Purple

    Risk Premium Calculation

    Inputs Output

    4.91

    4.58

    94.10132.00

    77.60

    53.52

    54.96

    19.48

    9.99

    Industry Adjustment

    0.95 -0.23

    Project Risk Mitigation

    (-10 to 10; where 10=risk completely eliminated, 0=aver

    Weights Score

    Impact

    on

    Country

    Premiu

    m

    0.40 5.00 -2.00

    0.10 10.00 -1.00

    0.15 8.00 -1.20

    0.05 5.00 -0.25

    0.05 10.00 -0.50

    0.05 5.00 -0.25

    0.05 -5.00 0.25

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    0.05 9.00 -0.45

    0.03 9.00 -0.22

    0.05 9.00 -0.45

    0.03 9.00 -0.22

    1.00

    Project Cost of Capital 12.96

    Cash Flow Check List:

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    Worksheet

    ominal U.S. dollar terms.

    n of Purchasing Power Parity, i.e. the expected

    ference between local and U.S. inflation rates.

    Category

    U.S. risk free in %

    U.S. risk premium in %

    Current U.S. Credit RatingCurrent Sovereign Spread in basis points

    Institutional Investor country credit rating (0-100) [not used in calculation]

    Implied Institutional Investor CCR based on Spread

    Implied Institutional Investor CCR based on Spread - coefficients estimated through Sept. 01

    Anchored Cost of Equity Capital for project of average risk in country (ICCRC)

    Country Risk Premium

    Beta (Industry)Sector adjustment

    age for country)

    Sovereign

    Currency (direct, e.g. convertibility)

    Currency (indirect, e.g. political risk caused by crisis)

    Expropriation (direct, diversion, creeping)

    Commercial International partners

    Involvement of Multilateral Agencies

    Sensitivity of Project to wars, strikes, terrorism

    Sensitivity of Project to natural disasters

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    Operating

    Resource risk

    Technology risk

    Financial

    Probability of Default

    Political Risk Insurance

    Sum of weights (make sure = 1.00)

    Operating-Precompletion

    Resources available (quantity/quality) -part not in discount rate

    Technology (proven technology) -part not in discount rate

    Timing risks (penalties for milestones)

    Operating-Post-completion

    Market risks (prices of outputs)

    Supply/input risk (availability)

    Throughput risk (material put through plus efficiency of systems operation)

    Operating costs

    Sovereign

    Inflation assumptions/Exchange rates

    Real Options

    Input mix or process flexibility

    Output mix or product flexibility

    Abandonment or termination

    Temporary stop or shutdown

    Intensity or operating scale

    ExpansionContraction

    Initiation or deferment

    Interproject/intraproject

    Growth

    Shadow costs

    Financial flexibility

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    Complex options which might diminish or augment value of other options

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    Erb-Harvey-Viskanta Cost of Capita

    Worksheet calculates cost of equity capital in n

    Convert local currency cash flows to USD by the assumptio

    annual depreciation in the FX rate is exactly equal to the dif

    NOTE: User Inputs are in Purple

    Risk Premium Calculation

    Inputs Output

    4.91

    4.58

    94.10132.00

    77.60

    53.52

    54.96

    19.48

    9.99

    Industry Adjustment

    1.05 0.23

    Project Risk Mitigation

    (-10 to 10; where 10=risk completely eliminated, 0=aver

    Weights Score

    Impact

    on

    Country

    Premiu

    m

    0.40 5.00 -2.00

    0.10 10.00 -1.00

    0.15 8.00 -1.20

    0.05 5.00 -0.25

    0.05 10.00 -0.50

    0.05 5.00 -0.25

    0.05 -5.00 0.25

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    0.05 9.00 -0.45

    0.03 9.00 -0.22

    0.05 9.00 -0.45

    0.03 9.00 -0.22

    1.00

    Project Cost of Capital 13.41

    Cash Flow Check List:

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    Worksheet

    ominal U.S. dollar terms.

    n of Purchasing Power Parity, i.e. the expected

    ference between local and U.S. inflation rates.

    Category

    U.S. risk free in %

    U.S. risk premium in %

    Current U.S. Credit RatingCurrent Sovereign Spread in basis points

    Institutional Investor country credit rating (0-100) [not used in calculation]

    Implied Institutional Investor CCR based on Spread

    Implied Institutional Investor CCR based on Spread - coefficients estimated through Sept. 01

    Anchored Cost of Equity Capital for project of average risk in country (ICCRC)

    Country Risk Premium

    Beta (Industry)Sector adjustment

    age for country)

    Sovereign

    Currency (direct, e.g. convertibility)

    Currency (indirect, e.g. political risk caused by crisis)

    Expropriation (direct, diversion, creeping)

    Commercial International partners

    Involvement of Multilateral Agencies

    Sensitivity of Project to wars, strikes, terrorism

    Sensitivity of Project to natural disasters

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    Operating

    Resource risk

    Technology risk

    Financial

    Probability of Default

    Political Risk Insurance

    Sum of weights (make sure = 1.00)

    Operating-Precompletion

    Resources available (quantity/quality) -part not in discount rate

    Technology (proven technology) -part not in discount rate

    Timing risks (penalties for milestones)

    Operating-Post-completion

    Market risks (prices of outputs)

    Supply/input risk (availability)

    Throughput risk (material put through plus efficiency of systems operation)

    Operating costs

    Sovereign

    Inflation assumptions/Exchange rates

    Real Options

    Input mix or process flexibility

    Output mix or product flexibility

    Abandonment or termination

    Temporary stop or shutdown

    Intensity or operating scale

    ExpansionContraction

    Initiation or deferment

    Interproject/intraproject

    Growth

    Shadow costs

    Financial flexibility

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    Complex options which might diminish or augment value of other options

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    BETA 0.85 0.95 1.05Cost of Equity 12.50 12.96 13.41Cost of Debt 6.5 6.5 6.5

    Tax Rate 17% 17% 17%After Tax Cost Of Debt 5.395 5.395 5.395Debt/Invested Capital 78.54% 78.54% 78.54%Equity/Invested Capital 21.46% 21.46% 21.46%WACC 6.92 7.02 7.12

    EHV Modal

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    Risk free rate ( Rf ) 4.91Country Risk Premium 2.1

    Market Risk Premium 4.58

    1Total Risk Premium 6.68

    BETA 0.85 0.95 1.05

    Cost of Equity 10.588 11.256 11.924Cost of Debt 6.5 6.5 6.5Tax Rate 17% 17% 17%

    After Tax Cost Of Debt 5.395 5.395 5.395Debt/Invested Capital 78.54% 78.54% 78.54%Equity/Invested Capital 21.46% 21.46% 21.46%WACC 6.51 6.65 6.80

    = % of Reveneue Derived Locally/Avg of Revenue Derived Locally for Similair Project

    Damodran Modified ModalCost of Equity

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    Year 2008 2009 2010 2011

    EBIT $12,090,173.9 $16,023,897.1 $23,971,445.1 $31,238,057.7

    Depriciation &

    Amoritization $14,176,406.4 $16,268,971.1 $18,658,171.0 $20,602,243.3plusDepriciation &Amoritization $26,266,580.3 $32,292,868.1 $42,629,616.1 $51,840,301.0

    Changes in working

    capital ($2,495,040.9) ($2,331,551.0) ($7,579,903.0) ($6,753,610.2)

    plusChanges in

    working capital $23,771,539.5 $29,961,317.1 $35,049,713.1 $45,086,690.8

    capital expenditure ($3,152,186.1) ($3,710,123.1) ($4,366,814.9) ($4,951,920.0)

    minuscapital

    ex enditure $20,619,353.4 $26,251,194.1 $30,682,898.3 $40,134,770.8

    Changes in other

    Assets & Liabilities $2,782,329.9 $2,893,623.1 $3,009,368.0 $3,129,742.8

    plusChanges in

    other Assets &

    Liabilities $23,401,683.3 $29,144,817.2 $33,692,266.3 $43,264,513.5Unlevered Cashflows $23,401,683.3 $29,144,817.2 $33,692,266.3 $43,264,513.5

    USD|CLP 493.5

    WACC 6.51

    Year 1 2 3 4

    Discounted

    Cashflows $21,971,418.0 $25,691,136.4 $27,884,521.3 $33,618,302.6

    Discounted

    Cashflows Sum

    $1,152,575,464.4

    minusLong Term

    Debt ($375,569,230.0)

    minusSubordinate

    Debt ($59,713,500.0)

    NPV $717,292,734.4

    Discounted

    Cashflows Sum in

    USD

    $1,453,480.7

    Value of 48% stake(in mil l ion USD)

    697.6707447

    WACC 6.65Year 1 2 3 4

    Discounted

    Cashflows $21,941,879.6 $25,622,104.5 $27,772,208.5 $33,437,881.1

    Discounted

    Cashflows Sum

    $1,132,470,722.4

    minusLong Term

    Debt ($375,569,230.0)

    Modified CAP

    Unlevered

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    minusSubordinate

    Debt ($59,713,500.0)

    NPV $697,187,992.4

    Discounted

    Cashflows Sum

    $1,412,741.6

    Value of 48% stake(in mil l ion USD)

    678.1159804

    WACC 6.80

    Year 1 2 3 4

    Discounted

    Cashflows $21,912,420.6 $25,553,350.4 $27,660,498.2 $33,258,668.3

    Discounted

    Cashflows Sum

    $1,112,817,477.4

    minusLong Term

    Debt ($375,569,230.0)

    minusSubordinate

    Debt ($59,713,500.0)

    NPV $677,534,747.4

    Discounted

    Cashflows Sum

    $1,372,917.4

    Value of 48% stake(in mil l ion USD)

    659.0003623

    WACC 6.92

    Year 1 2 3 4

    Discounted

    Cashflows $21,887,141.0 $25,494,424.5 $27,564,875.8 $33,105,456.3

    Discounted

    Cashflows Sum

    $1,096,262,705.6

    minusLong Term

    Debt ($375,569,230.0)minusSubordinate

    Debt ($59,713,500.0)

    NPV $660,979,975.6

    Discounted

    Cashflows Sum

    $1,339,371.8

    Value of 48% stake(in mil l ion USD)

    642.8984565

    WACC 7.02

    Year 1 2 3 4

    Discounted

    Cashflows $21,867,035.1 $25,447,606.9 $27,488,981.0 $32,983,979.1

    Discounted

    Cashflows Sum

    $1,083,296,965.8

    minusLong Term

    Debt ($375,569,230.0)

    minusSubordinate

    Debt ($59,713,500.0)

    NPV $648,014,235.8

    Discounted

    Cashflows Sum

    $1,313,098.8

    EHV Eval

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    Value of 48% stake(in mil l ion USD)

    630.2874026

    WACC 7.12

    Year 1 2 3 4

    Discounted

    Cashflows $21,846,966.2 $25,400,918.1 $27,413,364.6 $32,863,058.6

    DiscountedCashflows Sum

    $1,070,529,808.3

    minusLong Term

    Debt ($375,569,230.0)

    minusSubordinate

    Debt ($59,713,500.0)

    NPV $635,247,078.3

    Discounted

    Cashflows Sum

    $1,287,228.1

    Value of 48% stake(in mil l ion USD)

    617.8694987

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    2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

    $39,552,916.8 $49,066,473.1 $59,950,676.0 $72,402,033.3 $78,293,109.9

    $22,732,300.8 $25,063,279.9 $27,610,780.2 $30,390,974.4 $30,944,890.1

    $62,285,217.6 $74,129,753.1 $87,561,456.3 $102,793,007.7 $109,238,000.0

    ($7,659,148.4) ($8,685,474.3) ($9,849,327.9) ($11,169,137.8) ($4,724,344.3)

    $54,626,069.2 $65,444,278.7 $77,712,128.4 $91,623,869.9 $104,513,655.7

    ($2,807,738.6) ($3,183,975.6) ($3,610,628.4) ($4,094,452.6) ($4,299,101.5)

    $51,818,330.5 $62,260,303.1 $74,101,500.0 $87,529,417.3 $100,214,554.3

    $3,254,932.5 $3,385,129.8 $3,520,535.0 $3,661,356.4 $3,807,810.6

    $55,073,263.0 $65,645,432.9 $77,622,035.0 $91,190,773.7 $104,022,364.9$55,073,263.0 $65,645,432.9 $77,622,035.0 $91,190,773.7 $104,022,364.9

    5 6 7 8 9

    $40,178,688.4 $44,964,570.8 $49,918,548.6 $55,060,330.6 $58,969,253.1

    5 6 7 8 9

    $39,909,332.5 $44,603,085.5 $49,450,665.6 $54,470,924.8 $58,259,573.7

    Evaluations (in 1000 CLP)

    ashflows(in 1000 CLP)

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    5 6 7 8 9

    $39,642,140.6 $44,244,986.1 $48,987,787.9 $53,888,607.6 $57,559,371.4

    5 6 7 8 9

    $39,413,998.9 $43,939,604.8 $48,593,546.1 $53,393,256.2 $56,964,484.1

    5 6 7 8 9

    $39,233,299.8 $43,697,978.8 $48,281,934.6 $53,002,132.7 $56,495,255.0

    uations (in 1000 CLP)

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    5 6 7 8 9

    $39,053,593.8 $43,457,901.6 $47,972,604.7 $52,614,229.4 $56,030,316.6

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    2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

    $84,527,021.8 $91,123,325.2 $98,102,674.2 $105,486,882.6 $113,298,988.2

    $31,478,220.0 $31,987,520.7 $32,469,055.9 $32,918,775.8 $33,332,295.1

    $116,005,241.9 $123,110,845.9 $130,571,730.1 $138,405,658.5 $146,631,283.3

    ($4,960,476.4) ($5,208,411.0) ($5,468,737.8) ($5,742,076.2) ($6,029,076.7)

    $111,044,765.5 $117,902,434.9 $125,102,992.3 $132,663,582.3 $140,602,206.6

    ($4,513,979.2) ($4,739,596.9) ($4,976,491.4) ($5,225,226.4) ($5,486,393.7)

    $106,530,786.3 $113,162,838.0 $120,126,500.9 $127,438,355.9 $135,115,813.0

    $3,960,123.0 $4,118,528.0 $4,283,269.1 $4,454,599.8 $4,632,783.8

    $110,490,909.3 $117,281,366.0 $124,409,770.0 $131,892,955.7 $139,748,596.8$110,490,909.3 $117,281,366.0 $124,409,770.0 $131,892,955.7 $139,748,596.8

    10 11 12 13 14

    $58,808,004.2 $58,607,054.9 $58,369,551.9 $58,098,438.8 $57,796,469.0

    10 11 12 13 14

    $58,022,155.5 $57,746,153.0 $57,434,819.4 $57,091,191.2 $56,718,102.2

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    10 11 12 13 14

    $57,247,842.6 $56,899,028.4 $56,516,281.5 $56,102,724.4 $55,661,264.0

    10 11 12 13 14

    $56,590,812.8 $56,181,112.9 $55,738,817.1 $55,267,115.6 $54,768,972.5

    10 11 12 13 14

    $56,073,104.7 $55,616,016.2 $55,127,481.7 $54,610,741.5 $54,068,800.4

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    10 11 12 13 14

    $55,560,601.7 $55,057,114.6 $54,523,403.5 $53,962,754.6 $53,378,209.9

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    2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

    $121,563,320.0 $130,305,570.4 $139,552,870.5 $149,333,869.6 $159,678,819.3

    $33,704,869.4 $34,031,370.3 $34,306,259.1 $34,523,558.5 $34,676,822.1

    $155,268,189.4 $164,336,940.7 $173,859,129.7 $183,857,428.1 $194,355,641.4

    ($6,330,422.0) ($6,646,829.1) ($6,979,050.9) ($7,327,877.9) ($7,694,139.8)

    $148,937,767.4 $157,690,111.6 $166,880,078.7 $176,529,550.2 $186,661,501.5

    ($5,760,614.6) ($6,048,541.6) ($6,350,859.8) ($6,668,288.5) ($7,001,582.9)

    $143,177,152.8 $151,641,570.0 $160,529,218.9 $169,861,261.7 $179,659,918.6

    $4,818,095.2 $5,010,819.0 $5,211,251.8 $5,419,701.8 $5,636,489.9

    $147,995,248.0 $156,652,389.0 $165,740,470.7 $175,280,963.5 $185,296,408.5$147,995,248.0 $156,652,389.0 $165,740,470.7 $175,280,963.5 $185,296,408.5

    15 16 17 18 19

    $57,466,217.3 $57,110,090.9 $56,730,340.0 $56,329,067.2 $55,908,237.2

    15 16 17 18 19

    $56,318,196.2 $55,893,939.3 $55,447,631.0 $54,981,414.8 $54,497,288.1

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    15 16 17 18 19

    $55,194,605.9 $54,705,267.5 $54,195,590.1 $53,667,750.3 $53,123,771.3

    15 16 17 18 19

    $54,247,140.0 $53,704,173.4 $53,142,443.6 $52,564,149.6 $51,971,329.9

    15 16 17 18 19

    $53,504,443.9 $52,920,252.9 $52,318,617.9 $51,701,751.0 $51,071,699.2

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    15 16 17 18 19

    $52,772,583.9 $52,148,479.5 $51,508,302.2 $50,854,273.9 $50,188,445.8

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    2027 2028 2029 2030

    $170,619,662.2 $182,190,125.2 $194,425,818.3 $207,364,338.3

    $34,759,103.1 $34,762,920.3 $34,680,221.3 $34,502,345.2

    $205,378,765.3 $216,953,045.5 $229,106,039.7 $241,866,683.6

    ($8,078,708.3) ($8,482,498.3) ($8,906,470.6) ($9,351,633.8)

    $197,300,057.0 $208,470,547.1 $220,199,569.1 $232,515,049.8

    ($7,351,536.0) ($7,718,980.5) ($8,104,790.6) ($8,509,884.2)

    $189,948,520.9 $200,751,566.6 $212,094,778.5 $224,005,165.5

    $5,861,949.5 $6,096,427.5 $6,340,284.6 $6,593,896.0

    $195,810,470.4 $206,847,994.1 $218,435,063.1 $230,599,061.5$195,810,470.4 $206,847,994.1 $218,435,063.1 $230,599,061.5

    20 21 22 23

    $55,469,684.7 $55,015,123.2 $54,546,151.9 $54,064,263.4

    20 21 22 23

    $53,997,111.9 $53,482,619.0 $52,955,422.3 $52,417,022.7

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    20 21 22 23

    $52,565,532.1 $51,994,777.7 $51,413,127.4 $50,822,083.2

    20 21 22 23

    $51,365,873.5 $50,749,529.4 $50,123,916.3 $49,490,531.5

    20 21 22 23

    $50,430,354.6 $49,779,465.7 $49,120,646.6 $48,455,386.6

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    39/44

    20 21 22 23

    $49,512,709.8 $48,828,809.7 $48,138,351.7 $47,442,813.7

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    44/44

    1 2 3

    Damodran Valuation 697.67 678.12 659.00 678.26

    EHV Valuation 642.90 630.29 617.87 630.35

    Value to Quote 654.31

    Values in million USD