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  • 7/31/2019 Cityam 2012-08-01

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    Deutsche Bank AG

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    BUSINESS WITH PERSONALITY

    DEUTSCHE Bank is slashing jobs andpay in an effort to control costs, thebank said yesterday as it revealed prof-its slumped by 50 per cent in the sec-ond quarter.Around 1,900 jobs are to go in the

    very near future, including 1,500 in itsinvestment banking arm much ofwhich is based in London.

    That represents around 15 per centof jobs in the division and is a markedturnaround from the banks stance inApril, when it insisted no job cutswere needed.

    Most of the cuts will fall outside ofGermany. More details will berevealed in September at the end of a100-day strategic review being led bynew co-chief executives Jrgen

    www.cityam.com FREE

    FTSE 100 M5,635.28 -58.35 DOW M13,008.68 -64.33 NASDAQM2,939.52 -64.33 /$ 1.57 unc / M1.27 -0.01 /$ 1.23 unc

    BY TIM WALLACE

    DEUTSCHE BANK PLOTSTO CUT LONDON STAFF

    ISSUE 1,686 WEDNESDAY 1 AUGUST 2012

    All the action from day four of the Olympics: See Pages 2, 9, 10, 15, 18, 19

    MORE ON BANKING: Page 3, Page 4

    Certified Distribution28/05/2012 till 01/07/2012 is 132,857

    SHORTLISTS REVEALEDSee Page 13

    Fitschen and Anshu Jain.Difficult economic conditions and

    financial markets, increased regulato-ry oversight and litigation are knownheadwinds for us and the industry.These headwinds dont excuse usfrom growth, Jain said. Put simply:our cost base is too high.Jain also expressed frustration

    that efforts so far have not substan-tially lowered costs as new pressuresfrom lawsuits and rule changes aredriving expenses upward.The job losses are expected to save

    around 350m (274.8m), forming amajor part of its 3bn savings target,although the bank has not yet set adate by which it expects to hit thegoal.

    Overall pay held steady at 3.4bn inthe quarter, with performance-related

    remuneration down nine per cent onpoor performance over the quarter.

    Cash pay fell 27 per cent, butdeferred pay awarded in previousquarters and accrued in the secondquarter rose 12 per cent, hamperingefforts to cut costs.A rise in severance payments also

    hit the bank, contributing to an over-all rise in non-interest expenses of345m on the year to total 6.6bn inthe quarter.

    Meanwhile revenues fell six per centfrom 8.5bn in the second quarter of2011 to 8bn in the last three-monthperiod, driven by falling activity levelsamong cautious European clients.

    Part of the hit came from the weakeuro pushing up the banks dollar andsterling cost base.

    However, it also suffered from low

    levels of activity as nervous customerswere reluctant to act thanks to theuncertainty caused by the resurgentEurozone crisis.

    Revenues in the corporate bankingand securities business fell 11 per centto3.5bn on reduced levels of activity.

    But some areas of the bank pros-pered cash management activityincreased in the quarter as the contin-ued flight to safety in Europe prompt-ed more clients to hold cash ratherthan riskier assets.That drove a 10 per cent rise in glob-

    al transaction banking revenues,which reached 972m in the quarter.

    The bank also revealed it has disci-plined staff over interbank lendingrate manipulation. One member ofstaff in Singapore and one in Londonleft the bank last year as a result.

    Although regulators are investigat-ing, there is no suggestion that themanipulation was as widespread as inBarclays, at the centre of the scandal,or that senior staff were in any wayinvolved.

    TEAM GBS ROYAL SILVERZARA PHILLIPS AWARDED MEDAL BY HER MOTHER AFTER EVENTING TRIUMPH

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    [email protected]

    Follow me on Twitter: @allisterheath

    IN BRIEFMoodys cuts UK growth forecastn Ratings agency Moodys has

    trimmed its growth forecasts for the UKdue to the rising challenges faced bythe coalition in reducing the countrysdebts while the Eurozone crisis rumbleson. Moodys, which has the UK on anegative outlook for its triple-A rating,expects the economy to grow 0.4 percent this year, and by 1.8 per cent in2013, it said in a credit opinion. Itexpects the UK to eventually return to atrend growth rate of 2.5 per cent.

    Nomura set for slap on the wristn Nomura could face relatively lightpenalties following a leakinvestigation by Japans securitiesregulators. The investigators closed athree month probe into leaks ofcompany share issuance plans in 2010yesterday, and urged that the bankreceive an order to improve its

    compliance practices, described byone expert as a slap on the wrist.The banks chief executive and hislieutenant resigned over the probelast week.

    Apple stock split rumours mountn Shares in Apple yesterday rose 2.6per cent their biggest jump in twomonths on rumours the companycould split its stock and list on theDow Jones. Research firm Bernsteinsaid Apple is considering the movefollowing its recent decision to pay adividend. The 30-member Dow Jonesindex has not been altered since2009, but Bernstein said it under-represents tech stocks and Applewould be a primary candidate.

    REX

    SFO continues Tchenguizcase despite latest blowTHE SERIOUS Fraud Office (SFO)said yesterday it will not back downin its pursuit of property tycoonRobert Tchenguiz despite facing fur-ther embarrassment over its mosthigh-profile case.

    Search warrants used to raid thehouses and offices of Tchenguiz andhis brother Vincent in 2011 weredeemed unlawful by the HighCourt, which ruled that the SFOhad misrepresented facts whenapplying for them.The SFO yesterday admitted to

    serious mistakes but said it wouldcontinue its investigation into2009s collapse of Icelandic bankKaupthing with renewed focusand vigour.The department has had to drop

    cases against Vincent Tchenguizand two Kaupthing executives,Armann Thorvaldsson and GudniAdalsteinsson, in recent weeks.

    Robert Tchenguiz, who remainsunder investigation, called theSFOs conduct outrageous andunlawful and said he would joinhis brother in filing claims againstthe department. The two are expect-ed to claim up to 100m each.The Tchenguiz brothers were

    arrested and their properties raidedin a well-publicised dawn operationin March 2011 involving 135 officers

    Insurers warn on too big to fail p lansRegulators plans to designate big globalinsurers as too big to fail could haveunintended consequences that riskdestabilising the financial system, anindustry body has claimed. The GenevaAssociation said they might promptinsurers to cut holdings of governmentbonds as well as bank debt and equity.

    Congressional leaders reach freshbudget dealUS congressional leaders have reached a

    short-term budget deal to fund thegovernment for six months fromSeptember, extinguishing a potentialpartisan fiscal fight ahead of the election.

    Payments likely if Heathrow growsBAA, Heathrows owner, expects that anoise compensation regime will beneeded if a third runway at the airport isgiven the ministerial go-ahead, a policybeing promoted by Tory MPs with closelinks to George Osborne, the chancellor.Osborne is thought to favour expansionof Heathrow as the quickest andcheapest way to solve the UKs capacitycrunch.

    Euro doom loop threat to BritainBritains heavily indebted economy wouldcontract 5.2 per cent in 2013 - more thanGermanys - in the immediate aftermathof a break-up of the euro, FathomFinancial Consulting has predicted.

    Bikers friend faces uphill struggleThe British division of Hein Gericke, oneof Europes biggest sellers of clothing andequipment to bikers, has fallen intoadministration. The firm fell victim to thespending squeeze on affluent riders.

    China prepares vast stimulusChina has ditched its reform strategy andprepared a vast stimulus package as thecountrys soft-landing turnsuncomfortably hard, with recessionwarnings flashing across East Asia.

    PokerStars to settle US allegationsPokerStars, an online poker companybased in the Isle of Man, has agreed to pay$731m (466.2m) to US authorities tosettle allegations of money launderingand bank fraud.

    Heat rises on central banksThe US Federal Reserve and EuropeanCentral Bank face critical tests this weekamid heightened expectations that theyare moving toward new actions to tacklefragility in the global economy.

    EU sends Visa objections on feesThe European Union's antitrust regulatorshave sent fresh objections to Visa Europeabout some fees it charges for use of itscredit cards, arguing that the fees hurtcompetition and increase prices.

    SEVERAL positive reports on thehealth of the US economy provideda rosy backdrop to the start of theFederal Reserves latest policymeeting yesterday.

    The Fed will announce tonightwhether its Federal Open MarketCommittee (FOMC) is to delivereven greater stimulus measures totry to kick start the US recovery.

    Worrying economic data hasrecently led some analysts tosuggest that more quantitativeeasing (QE3) could be in thepipeline, but yesterdays figurespainted a more optimistic picture.

    A measure of consumerconfidence in the US, recorded bythe Conference Board, bounced

    back to an index score of 65.9 forJuly, up from 62.7 in June. Theresult surprised many economists,

    who had anticipated a decline.A Chicago purchasing managers

    index, often used as a bellwether ofUS-wide manufacturing conditions,climbed to 53.7 for July, up from52.9 in June. Scores above 50indicate economic growth.

    And the latest S&P/Case-Shillersurvey showed single-family homeprices rising for the fourth monthin a row in May.

    Commerce Department datarevealed a 0.5 per cent lift inhousehold income in June, yetspending fell in real terms.

    Positive US datagives Fed morefood for thought

    Robert Tchenguiz said he intends to claim up to 100m in damages from the SFO

    2 NEWS

    BY JULIAN HARRIS

    BY JAMES TITCOMB

    To contact the newsdesk email [email protected]

    SOMETIMES, we dont needstatistics to tell us what ishappening to the economy.London during the past few days

    has been a case in point: the Olympicsare a great success, of course, andthose retailers and companiespositioned to cash in (such as the

    Westfield Stratford shopping centre)are doing a roaring trade. But the restof the capitals economy is suffering,in some cases severely.

    Shopping areas away from theOlympic venues are hurting, manyhotels have been forced to slash theirprices, British visitors from outsidecentral London are staying away, asare other non-Olympic tourists, somepeople are working from home andthe roads are much emptier than any-body could possibly have imagined (itis often faster to get around by car atthe moment, despite the Zil lanes,

    EDITORSLETTER

    ALLISTER HEATH

    London is suffering as Olympic boost outweighed by losses

    WEDNESDAY 1 AUGUST 2012

    than during normal times). Many ofthe warnings against over-crowdinghave worked far too well.There are no sound statistics as yet

    most numbers being cited are ultra-local or rough approximations butits looking grim. The West End inparticular is reeling, but it isnt alone.It feels as if London and its manyattractions including museums andtheatres have lost more visitors thanthey have gained, and many businesstrips have also failed to happen.

    One genuine piece of data yesterdaydid confirm that we are in a deep eco-nomic hole, albeit one unrelated tothe Olympics. Real household actualincome per head fell by 0.6 per cent inthe first quarter of this year, com-pared with the last three months of2011, taking it back to its lowest level

    since the second quarter of 2005. In away, this is about right: all of theextra income supposedly created bythe bubble has vanished. The pastseven years have been entirely wasted.

    FRIEDMAN REMEMBEREDIF only Milton Friedman were stillwith us today. The world desperatelyneeds more voices of sanity andFriedman, who would have celebratedhis hundredth birthday yesterday,would have provided a brilliant coun-terpoint to an economic debate thatis more dominated by left-wing pub-

    He would have demolished the deficitdeniers and pseudo-Keynesians whowant to borrow ever more.

    Left-wingers who hate Friedmanshould remember that he cam-paigned against the draft, helping tosecure the abolition of conscriptionin the US. He was pro-immigration.

    He backed drug legalisation becausehe thought that the costs of prohibi-tion including the creation of pow-erful criminal gangs outweighedany benefits. He hated bailouts andcorporatism, and argued that capital-ists who seek privileges from the state(rather than compete in a truly freemarket) are their own worst enemies.The world would be a better place ifhe and his powerful advocacy werestill around today.

    lic intellectuals that at any time forfour decades. All of the big names Paul Krugman, Nouriel Roubini,George Soros are of the left. Ive nodoubt Friedman would have madeintellectual mincemeat of them.The US Nobel prize winner would

    have spotted the bubble, which went

    hand in hand with an explosion inthe money supply. It was a classic caseof what Friedman warned against: anexcessive amount of money chasingnot just too few goods but also toofew commodities, and ending up cre-ating a massive housing bubble. Hewould undoubtedly have backed theearly incarnations of quantitative eas-ing his big lesson, learnt from the1930s, was that the money supplyshould never be allowed to collapseafter a banking crisis but wouldnever have supported the mad centralbank activism of the past two years.

    and SFO staff. Kaupthing loaned thepair 180m months before it col-lapsed.

    When the SFO appeared at myhome and offices at 6.30am in a blazeof self-engendered publicity toquote todays judgment I said theirconduct was both outrageous andunlawful, Robert Tchenguiz said in astatement.

    As a result of the SFOs unlawfulactions I and my family have sufferedenormous damage, not least to myreputation. I now intend to pursuemy claim in respect of the damages I

    have suffered as a result of the SFOsillegal actions, he added.The SFO replied: We note that the

    Court declined to consider the meritsof the future of the investigation. TheSFO will continue with the investiga-tion with renewed focus and vigour.The department, which has come

    under increased scrutiny in recentmonths, is working with Icelandicauthorities on its investigation intowhy large sums of money leftKaupthing before its collapse. Thegovernment had to compensate mil-lions who had deposits in the bank.

    The new jobs website for London professionalsCITYAMCAREERS.com

    WHAT THE OTHER PAPERS SAY THIS MORNING

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    EARNINGS at UBS dropped sharply inthe second quarter, the Swiss institu-tions results showed yesterday, withlarge losses from Facebooks publiclaunch hitting the investment bank-ing arm hard.

    Net profit came in at SFr425m(277.8m), down 58.1 per cent fromSFr1.015bn in the same period of 2011,with profits in the year to date down55.6 per cent at SFr1.252bn.The investment banking arm lost

    SFr130m compared with a SFr383mprofit in the same period of last year,in large part due to a SFr349m lossrelated to Facebooks initial publicoffering in May.

    UBS was a market maker on thedeal, and has accused Nasdaq ofgross mishandling of the block-buster float, claiming operationalerrors by the exchange caused thebank to re-send stock orders multipletimes. It plans to seek compensationfrom the exchange.

    Nasdaq would not comment on thespecific claims, but earlier this monthannounced plans to give $62m in

    UBS investment

    bank suffers inFacebook flopBY TIM WALLACE

    compensation to a range of customerswho had problems with the IPO.

    The investment banking divisionsrevenues fell 31.8 per cent toSFr1.74bn, while expenses fell 13.6 percent to SFr1.87bn. Overall, the bankwas also hit by weak trading levels inlarge part due to the Eurozone crisishitting confidence and reducing mar-ket activity.

    UBS shed more than 2,000 staff inthe year leaving a total of 63,520 whilepersonnel expenses fell 4.4 per cent toSFr3.6bn.

    Stocks fell 5.86 per cent in the day toSFr10.29.

    Barclays office raided as Liborinvestigation spreads to ItalyITALIAN prosecutors yesterday

    raided a Barclays office in Milanas part of a probe into possibleEuribor manipulation the euroequivalent of Libor.

    Police seized documents,computer material and emails,acting on a court order granted inthe southern city of Trani.

    The probe follows an extensiveinvestigation into the keyinterbank rates by UK regulatorsincluding the Financial Services

    BY TIM WALLACE Authority, which saw the bankfined 290m for entering falselylow and high lending rates to the

    group compiling Libor.The raid came after consumergroups Adusbef andFederconsumatori complainedthat customers may have beennegatively affected by Euribormanipulation as it would changetheir mortgage interest rates.

    However, the bank has not beenput under formal investigation bythe Italian authorities.

    Barclays declined to comment

    on the details surrounding theraid.

    UBS chief executive Sergio Ermotti is cutting staff to try to reduce costs at the bank

    UBS AG

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    SPANISH bank BBVA surprisedanalysts by reporting a 35 per centfall in net profits in the first halfof the year a lower drop thananalysts had expected.

    Although the bank is one of thethree believed to be strongenough to survive withoutSpanish government help, it stillhad to write off 1.43bn (1.1bn)in provisions against losses on badhousing loans, bringing profits inthe six-month period down to1.51bn.

    Those provisions make up

    roughly one-third of the total itwill be obliged to set aside.

    BBVA earnings dip as it startsto write off bad housing loansBY TIM WALLACE Unusually for the troubled

    sector, headcount at BBVAincreased, rising 2.7 per cent onthe year to 112,605, largely driven

    by an expansion in the Americas.Latin American profits rose

    sharply, up 34 per cent from774m in the first half of 2011 to1.024bn, partly offsetting losseselsewhere.

    Wage and salary expenditurerose nine per cent on the year to2.161bn, taking averagecompensation per worker to19,191 for the six-month period.

    The bank also reported it is ontrack for its Basel III core tier one

    capital ratio to be in excess ofnine per cent by December 2013.

    BOTTOM LINE: Page 4

    WEDNESDAY 1 AUGUST 20123NEWScityam.com

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    Some retailers have been left pondering the whereabouts of the citys Olympics tourists,as the normally bustling West End fell quiet yesterday. Londoners were told ahead ofthe Games to avoid the city centre.

    G E T T Y

    OIL giant BPs earnings werethumped yesterday as it set aside anextra $847m (540m) to pay costsand litigation fees over the 2010Gulf of Mexico oil spill.

    The multinational reportedunderlying adjusted profits haddropped from $5.71bn a year ago to$3.68bn for this quarter, as itcontinued to struggle with safetyconcerns on the back of thedisaster.

    It also reported a $5bn overallwritedown for the declining valueof its North American refineriesand bad performance from its shalegas assets.

    It blamed weaker oil and US gasprices and reductions in outputdue to maintenance work.

    BP group chief executive BobDudley said: We recognise this wasa weak earnings quarter, driven bya combination of factors affectingboth the sector and BP specifically.

    He added: Rebuilding trust withour shareholders and other

    BP woes mount

    as profit hit andspill costs riseBY MICHAEL BOW stakeholders is vitally important.

    The firm also fared badly over thehalf year, with underlyingreplacement cost profit down to$8.48bn from $11.21bn six monthspreviously.

    BPs woes have been compoundedby its dispute with the co-owners ofTNK-BP, who on Monday blocked thepayment of dividends.

    BP remains committed toRussia, Dudley said. Weve beenworking with our partners to get aresolution. Were in this period ofnegotiating in good faith with allparties. Stay tuned.

    YESTERDAYS job cuts atDeutsche Bank may have comeas a shock, but unfortunatelyfor the banks new co-chief

    executives they were inevitable.Compared to its peers Deutsches

    core Tier 1 ratio is weak, and thoughmanagement promised yesterday that

    improving ratios was a key focus, it isstill targeting just eight per cent bythe end of next year. Short of tappinginvestors for cash, which the bank hasvowed not to do, the only way itllboost the buffers is by making cuts.

    And when investment banking is byfar the biggest drag on profits, its nosurprise that the department is themost obvious target.

    It might have been allowed a littlemore breathing room had margins

    not been quite so terrible but rev-enues fell by 11 per cent, and pre-taxprofit plummeted by almost two-thirds. With a cost-to-income ratio of87 per cent and an evaporating dealflow, corporate banking stood littlechance of fighting its corner.

    Of course its not just Deutsche Bankfeeling the heat. Banks on both side ofthe Atlantic have already made surewere well prepared for a summer of

    cuts, with Morgan Stanley planning700 layoffs and Bank of America andCredit Suisse both committing to mas-sive cost saving. Pay is also beingslashed.

    Meredith Whitney, the well-knownUS analyst, even said yesterday thatWall Street could cut as many as

    50,000 more jobs this year.Just like when Whitney was one ofthe first to predict the subprime crisis,nobody really wants to believe her. Butwith capital ratios in focus and no signof a market recovery on the horizon,we dont think many bank chiefswould dare to disagree. The next fewmonths are going to be tough for theCity.Elizabeth Fournier is City A.M.s news edi-

    tor @ej_fournier

    BOTTOMLINE

    ELIZABETH FOURNIER

    BP PLC

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    The underlying results are worse than expected driven by lower oil andgas prices, extensive maintenance in the Gulf of Mexico, lower than expectedincome from TNK-BP and a higher level of depreciation. Overall, our viewis little changed. Shell looks more attractive in almost all respects.

    ANALYST VIEWS

    Todays results are poor, and the shares have been marked down as aresult, as the market continues to lack confidence in the groups medium-termstrategy. However, we believe the current valuation, both in PE termsand relative to net asset value, remains attractive

    BP has unfortunately surpassed the disappointing scene which hadalready been set by Shell and Exxon. The company is rather more upbeat aboutprospects for 2013 and 2014 as earnings momentum builds in light of thecontribution from new projects.

    WERE BPS QUARTERLYRESULTS IN LINE WITH

    EXPECTATIONS?By Michael BowROB MUNDY LIBERUM CAPITAL

    JONATHAN JACKSON KILLIK & CO

    RICHARD HUNTER HARGREAVES LANSDOWN

    DEBATE: Page 15

    WEDNESDAY 1 AUGUST 20124 NEWS cityam.com

    Job cuts a sign of things to comeREGENT STREET SUFFERS IN STRATFORD BOOM

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    BRITAINS contribution to Brusselsappears to have risen by nearly 1bnlast year, according to Office forNational Statistics (ONS) data

    released yesterday.The ONSs balance of paymentsrecords, known as the Pink Book,showed debits to EU bodies rose to19.18bn from 18.23bn. The datacan include private sector transfers,but the ONS said the majority wouldmost likely be taxpayer cash.

    UKIP pounced on the report,calling the number astonishing.

    Transfers to EUjump by 1bn

    BY JULIAN HARRIS

    PRICES in Britains shops rose just

    one per cent in July compared to theprevious year, dragged down by thebrakes being hit on food inflation.

    Food prices increased 3.1 per centannualised in July, the British RetailConsortium announced thismorning, a less severe rise than the3.5 per cent recorded in June.

    Overall price inflation edgeddown from 1.1 per cent in June,with the price of non-food itemsfalling 0.3 per cent compared to Julylast year.

    Inflation easesin British shops

    BY JULIAN HARRIS

    GETTY

    TULLETT Prebon reported a sevenper cent slump in profits yesterdayas it warned investors that tradingactivity would remain subdued forthe rest of the year.

    The inter-dealer broker, led byCity veteran Terry Smith, sawunderlying operating profit slip to73.7m from 79.4m in 2011.

    It led to a fall in basic earningsper share from 24.8p down to 16.8p.

    Smith, chief executive of thefirm, blamed the widespreadmalaise affecting investorsentiment and risk appetite.

    Market conditions are expectedto continue to be challenging, hesaid.

    The worlds financial marketsremain unsettled, but marketactivity has been subdued in recentmonths and it seems reasonable toexpect that it will remain so duringthe second half, particularly incomparison with some periods ofmore heightened activity duringthe second half last year.

    Revenues were flat at 455.1m

    Tullett Prebonprofits slide on

    investor fearsBY MICHAEL BOW compared to 454.8m last year.

    However, Tullett Prebons brokingbusiness has been strengthened byJanuarys acquisition of New Yorkbased Chapdelaine & Co in Americaand last years purchase of inter-dealer broker Conveno in SaoPaulo, Brazil.

    This helped prop up earnings byadding 17.3m to revenues.

    Numis analyst James Hamiltonsaid: While the near term tradingenvironment remains difficult withit unlikely to dramatically improveuntil there is the prospect of USinterest rates increasing, investorsare being paid to wait.

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    ANALYSTS at market makerWinterflood Securities yesterdaywarned fund veteran Anthony Bolton

    that his faltering China fund was toohighly geared for retail investors.

    Researchers at the firms invest-ment trust arm said the funds 20 percent gearing and its level of stockanalysis raised questions about itssuitability for its retail investorbase.

    Analyst Simon Elliott said: Peopleare not fully aware of the risks in thefund. The level of gearing is punchy its very high compared to othertrusts and the fact that hes using

    Winterflood analysts scepticalof Boltons Chinese adventure

    BY MICHAEL BOW derivatives detracts from the invest-ment message.

    Boltons Fidelity China SpecialSituations fund launched in Asia in2010.

    Following the funds annualmeeting a week ago, Bolton said:The fact that the fund has beengeared in a down market has nothelped.

    What I hope is that the factorsthat have acted against me, will, in abetter market environment, do thereverse and accentuate anyrecovery.

    Hargreaves Lansdowns MarkDampier said: This is not a coreholding its a specialised fund.

    WEDNESDAY 1 AUGUST 20126 NEWS cityam.com

    Winterflood president Brian Winterflood Anthony Bolton is a star fund manager

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    BY BEN SOUTHWOOD

    HOUSEHOLDS came in for a ham-mering in the first quarter of theyear, as income, expenditure andsaving all crashed, the Office forNational Statistics said yesterday.

    Household income collapsed to itslowest level since mid-2005, whileexpenditure fell to its second lowestlevel since mid-2003, the newest sta-tistics showed, as the second dip ofthe recession hit home.

    It took a quarterly fall of only 0.6per cent in real household incomeper head to achieve this result,while spending crept down 0.2 percent to bring it to this recent low.

    This highlights the pressure that[households] are under and rein-forces belief that they are likely tobe careful in their spending forsome time to come, said HowardArcher at IHS Global Insight.

    The main factor behind shrinkingreal incomes was rapid priceincreases, which saw the consumerprice index increase 5.2 per cent

    BY BEN SOUTHWOOD when inflation peaked in the year toSeptember 2011, while staying abovefour per cent throughout 2011.Inflation has dipped closer to theBanks target through this year butthis has only slowed the rate atwhich purchasing power is eroded it cannot undo the damage that hasalready been done.The retail prices index showed a

    9.2 per cent price hike betweenJanuary 2010 and the same monthtwo years later, with monthly fig-ures averaging over 4.9 per cent.

    The squeeze on households pur-chasing power was clearly a key fac-tor, claimed Archer, pointing to theshrink in consumption, althoughnoting that there was an increase inthe proportion of income con-sumed, as expenditure sank by alower fraction than income.

    Since expenditure fell less thanincome in the quarter, the savingratio slumped 0.5 percentage pointsto 6.4 per cent, with gross savingdown at around 17bn, compared to18.3bn one quarter earlier.

    Eurozone sees retailand jobs batteringEUROZONE unemploymentballooned in June, as rates crept up

    across almost all nations, accordingto data released by Eurostat andothers yesterday.

    Only Germany and Cyprus sawany improvement, while grim retaildata hit Greece, France and Spain.

    Unemployment climbed 123,000in the Eurozone, to a total of 17.8m,meaning that since last year, twomillion more euro area workers arelooking but cannot find jobs.

    This put the overall rate for the

    BY BEN SOUTHWOOD Eurozone at 11.2 per cent, up from10 per cent in the same month lastyear, and above the 10.4 per centrate for the whole EU.

    Levels of unemployment variedwidely across Europe, with Spains24.8 per cent providing a starkcontrast to rates of 4.5 per cent inAustria, 5.1 per cent in Holland, and5.4 per cent in Germany.

    Greece, France and Spain werealso hit with ugly retail andconsumption data as the Eurozonecrisis continued to bite intoconsumer confidence, said theirnational statistical bodies.

    THE TREASURY has come under firefor appearing to abandon what it

    had said was its f lagship programmefor boosting lending, as it rolls out anewer scheme today.

    The National Loan GuaranteeScheme, known as credit easing,was launched just six months ago toprovide credit to small businesses.But with Funding for Lending beingrolled out today it has beensuggested that few will continue toborrow under credit easing, since itsprovisions are less generous.

    Treasury set toscrap flagshipcredit scheme

    FRENCH President FrancoisHollande and Italian PrimeMinister Mario Monti yesterdayrepeated their pledge to try andrein in the Eurozones spiralingfinancial crisis quickly.

    We must be able to use themeasures and tools agreed upon asquickly as possible, Hollande andMonti said in a joint statementafter a meeting in Paris, as Montipresses his case for action by theECB and Eurozone bailout funds

    to bring down high borrowingcosts in Italy and Spain.

    Leaders lookto protect euro

    BY CITY A.M. REPORTER

    WEDNESDAY 1 AUGUST 20127NEWScityam.com

    Household income since 1997

    2012Q12009Q12006Q12003Q12000Q11997Q1

    3,500

    4,000

    2,500

    3,000

    4,500

    5,000

    Actual Incomeper quarter

    Disposable Incomeper quarter

    Housing wealth (current prices) and house prices

    2011200720031999199519911987

    3,500

    4,000

    2,000

    1,500

    1,000

    500

    0

    2,500

    4,500

    4,500

    120140

    806040200

    100

    160180200billion thousands

    House Price Index

    Residential Wealth

    Household savingsratio dropped from

    6.9%

    6.4%down to

    Household expenditureper head dropped from

    4,416

    4,409down to

    Household incomeper head dropped from

    4,471

    4,444down to

    *Q4 2011

    *Q1 2012

    *Q4 2011 *Q4 2011

    *Q1 2012 *Q1 2012

    Reduced household incomes means lower saving ratio and lower expenditure

    NEAR-BANKRUPT Greece is fastrunning out of cash while it waitsfor its next instalment of aid frominternational lenders, a deputyfinance minister said yesterday.

    Cash reserves are almost zero. Itis risky to say until when [they willlast] as it always depends on thebudget execution, revenues andexpenditure, Christos Staikourassaid. But we are certainly on thebrink, we did not receive the aidtranche we were supposed to and

    we have the pending issue of an ECBbond maturing on 20 August.

    Greek minister:

    were on brinkBY CITY A.M. REPORTER

    ONS reveals hitto householdincome in 2012

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    IN BRIEFEDF gets boost from renewablesn French utility Electricite de France(EDF) posted a 4.6 per cent rise in itsfirst-half core earnings yesterday asincreased hydroelectric output and otherrenewable energies offset longer-than-expected outputs. First-half coreearnings reached 9.1bn (7.1bn) onsales up 8.2 per cent at 36.2bn. EDF isexpanding its portfolio by developing incoal, hydropower and renewables.

    Profits drops at Drax Groupn Power company Drax Group reporteda lower first-half profit yesterday andsaid that it is proceeding with plans tobecome a predominantly biomass-fuelled generator. Drax is expected toreview its investment plans of around650m to 700m in light of smaller-than-expected subsidies for biomassenergy. Profit before tax fell to 141m forJanuary-June from 169m a year earlier.

    Wolfson Micro reports lossn Edinburgh chipmaker WolfsonMicroelectronics, whose technology isused in the Samsung Galaxy S3smartphone, expect to return to profit inthe second half after it reported anunderlying loss of $1.3m (800,000) in

    the second quarter, better than the$2.9m loss in the same period last year.Revenue rose five per cent year on yearto $40.3m.

    MEXICAN miner Fresnillo, the worldslargest primary silver producer, said yes-terday its first-half profit dipped nine percent on the back of weaker average silverprices and rising costs.

    Core profit, or earnings before interest,tax, depreciation and amortisation(Ebitda), dropped to $684.4m (436.4m), abetter result than some analysts hadexpected, while attributable profit fell 25per cent to $366.7m, also less steeply thanforecast as margins held up.

    Fresnillo, also Mexicos second-largestgold miner, has been hit by a 13 per centfall in the price of silver and said the costof sales rose 34.5 per cent compared with

    the first half of last year, fuelled by higherproduction and labour costs.

    It will pay an interim dividend of $0.15.Last week, the miner announced chief

    executive Jaime Lomelin was retiring at

    Fresnillo hit byfaltering silver

    prices and costsBY HARRY BANKS 77 and would be replaced by OctavioAlvidrez, well-known to Londonsfinancial community after a spell ashead of investor relations at Fresnillobetween its listing in 2008 and 2010.

    Fresnillo also confirmed it was ontrack to meet silver and gold outputtargets for this year, helped by theramping up of production at its newSaucito mine.

    Fresnillo PLC

    31 Jul25 Jul 26 Jul 27 Jul 30 Jul

    1,375

    1,400

    1,425

    1,450

    1,475 p 1,456.0031 Jul

    MINER Xstrata reported an 18per cent drop in copper volumesin the first six months of 2012

    yesterday, as it replaces ageingoperations and undertakesexpansion that will boostproduction in the second half.

    Xstrata is in the throes of a

    merger with commodities traderGlencore, which made a $26bn(16.57bn) takeover bid for theminer earlier this year. Xstrata,the worlds fourth-largest

    Copper volumes tumble butXstrata stays upbeat on year

    BY HARRY BANKScopper miner, said productionof the red metal dropped to354,612 tonnes from 434,046tonnes a year ago.

    It was hit by the transitionfrom mines like the ErnestHenry open pit in Australia tonew mines and expansionprojects. It was also dented bylower recoveries at the worlds

    third-largest copper mine,Collahuasi, jointly owned with

    Anglo American, hit by poorweather, safety stoppages and abroken ball mill.

    INDIA-FOCUSED miner Vedantaposted a 27 per cent rise in first-quarter core earnings yesterday,as strong growth in power salesoffset the impact of lower metalprices and zinc volumes.

    The London-listed firm saidearnings before interest, tax,depreciation and amortisation(Ebitda) rose 27 per cent year-on-

    year to $1.34bn (853.6m) in thethree months to the end of June.Sales rose by nine per cent to$3.7bn.

    First-quarter output of minedmetal in the groups Zinc Indiaunit was 187,000 tonnes, in line

    with the years mine plan,compared with 188,000 tonnes inthe year-earlier period.

    Vedanta liftedby power sales

    BY CITY A.M. REPORTER BY CITY A.M. REPORTER

    PRECIOUS metals minerPolymetal may raise its 2012production target to reflect thestronger-than-plannedperformance of its Russian mines,it said yesterday.

    Polymetal, which joinedLondons FTSE 100 index last

    year, said it was firmly on track todeliver on its 2012 production

    guidance of more than 1m troyounces of gold equivalent.

    Updated guidance for 2012 to2014 will be released together

    with third quarter operationalresults in mid-October. Polymetal,controlled by Russian

    businessmen Alexander Nesis andAlexander Mamut along withCzech investor PPF, posted $376m

    in second quarter revenues, up 19per cent year-on-year.

    Polymetal mayraise outlook

    BY CITY A.M. REPORTER

    BRITISH car and plane partsmaker GKN said first-halfprofit rose by a third, driven bystrong growth at itsautomotive business on theback of robust luxury car sales.

    The groups Driveline unit,which makes products such asdriveshafts, chassis and axles,reported a 29 per cent rise inprofit in the six months to theend of June.

    The company said yesterdaypre-tax profit rose 33 per centto 266m in the six months tothe end of June, as revenuesrose 16 per cent to 3.46bn.

    GKN increased its interimdividend by 20 per cent to 2.4pence.

    BOTSWANA said yesterday it haddeclined an option to lift its stakein diamond giant De Beers, leavingminer Anglo American with thefull $5.1bn (3.25bn) price tag for abuy-out of the remaining sharesowned by the Oppenheimer family.

    Anglo formally offered theBotswana government a pro-ratashare of the Oppenheimer familys40 per cent stake under a long-standing pre-emption agreement.

    But Botswanas ministry ofminerals said in a statement theprice was too high, equal to about10 per cent of the countrys grossdomestic product,

    First-half profit halved at DeBeers as trade buyers were heldback by a lack of funds.

    Luxury carsdrive GKN

    Anglo ups DeBeers stake

    BY CITY A.M. REPORTER

    Mick Davis will be chief executive if the Glencore takeover of Xstrata goes ahead

    The newjobs websitefor Londonprofessionals

    CITYAMCAREERS

    .com

    WEDNESDAY 1 AUGUST 20128 NEWS cityam.com

  • 7/31/2019 Cityam 2012-08-01

    9/19

    PROPERTY firms CBRE and JonesLang LaSalle reported solid risesin quarterly profits last night.

    CBRE beat Wall Streetspredictions with a 31 per centjump in earnings to $88m, onrevenues up 13 per cent to $1.6bn.

    Revenue from Europe, theMiddle East and Africa fell 4.9 percent to $248.2m, as gains werewiped out by the soft euro.

    JLLS reported a two per centrise in adjusted net income to$51m, on revenues up nine percent to $921m. EMEA fees andrevenues were up by almost aquarter, excluding currencymovements, after the purchase ofKing Sturge.

    Profits up at CBREand Jones Lang

    BY MARION DAKERS

    HAVE YOU HAD ANY TRANSPORTTROUBLES DURING THE OLYMPICS?

    Interviews by Keval Dhokia and Alex Woodall

    There were no problems for getting in to worktoday. It seems my colleagues have been pre-

    pared for the Olympics for a while now and are usingtheir common sense to get around the hotspots along theCentral Line by using other stations.

    These views are those of the individuals above and not necessarily those of their company

    AHMED PATHAKAVIVA

    CITYVIEWSWEDNESDAY 1 AUGUST 2012

    9NEWScityam.com

    86 per cent on the day of the opening

    ceremony.Discussion has been heavily positiveover that time with a slight touch ofnegativity creeping in over the weekendin regards to empty seats.

    But even that has been largely drownedout by good news neither empty norseats has been in the top 10 words associ-ated with the Olympics on any day so far.There may have been concerns in thelead up to London 2012 but they certain-ly seem to have captured the imagina-tion of the nation now that it is upon us.

    Stephan Shakespeare is the chief executive ofYouGov

    BRANDINDEX

    STEPHAN SHAKESPEARE

    BREATHE a big sigh of relief,Great Britain, as the sentimentsurrounding the 2012Summer Olympics is once

    again blazing.On SportsIndex, the 2012 Games

    were beginning to buildmomentum when news broke overthe G4S security scandal just twoweeks before the event began.

    After this, all of the measures forthe Olympic Games plummeted;most notably Buzz nearly dropping tozero and Index down to +3.8.

    However since bottoming outaround 18-19 July, both the Buzz andIndex scores for the Olympics hasbeen significantly increasing.

    This is due in part to much reassur-ance from Olympic officaials whostated that the Games will indeed besafe and secure and paved the way forthe truly exciting positive build-up tothe opening ceremony and Games.

    Both Index and Buzz have nowreached truly Olympic heights, withBuzz having gained well over 30points to stand at +33.8 and Indexgaining 20 points to rest at +23.9.

    Using SoMA, YouGovs social mediaanalysis tool, we can see that socialmedia is also abuzz, and the chatter isoverwhelmingly positive.

    Reach (the percentage of UK Twitterusers reading something about theOlympics) has been higher than 75per cent every day since lastWednesday, peaking at an incredible

    2012 Summer Olympic Games Index

    16 Apr 16 May 16 Jun 16 Jul

    30

    25

    20

    15

    10

    5

    0

    2012 Summer Olympic Games Index

    My commute to work was fine; the Tube hasbeen running much better than expected and

    it is no better or no worse than usual. However, it's still

    early days yet and the athletics beginning this weekendwill provide a real test for the Underground.

    JAMES MACKIEXCHANGING

    Getting to work was no problem and I thinkmany City workers seem to be heeding the

    advice and making prudent travel arrangements, even inavoiding Olympic driving routes. If anything my commutewas less busy than usual, which was a pleasant surprise!

    IGNACIO VAZQUEZAON

    Olympic sentiment flying high

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    IT was perhaps only a matter of timebefore an opportunistic companysought to cash in on the OlympicVillages reputation as a hotbed oflust.

    Dating website Illicit Encounters,which specialises in arranging flingsfor married men and women, hasoffered all athletes competing atLondon 2012 free membership dur-ing the Games and claims to havehad more than 20 athletes sign upalready.

    The Capitalist predicts there couldbe some red faces around the parkwhen competitors realise their team-mates have also joined the site.

    Olympic athleteseeking fellowmedal winner...

    GLITTERATI have wasted no time inasking to hire out Londons most eye-catching new landmark, the 23mArcelorMittal Orbit in the OlympicPark.And perhaps it should come as no

    surprise that chart-topping pop starRihanna, known for her love of thecapital, was right at the front ofthe queue. The Capitalist hears

    the Barbadian begged to usethe 115m high statues twoviewing platforms as a set forher new fashion-themed tele-vision show, Styled To Rock.

    However her request tofilm a catwalk show over-looking east London camebefore the Orbits opera-tors had the green light toopen its doors, leavingthem with no choicebut to turn her down.

    Rihanna deniedtrip into Orbitfor reality show

    Rihanna was by no means the onlyone disappointed by the decision,however. It is understood male staff atthe Anish Kapoor and Cecil Balmond-designed structure were distraught atmissing the chance to see the clothes-averse singer and a gaggle of modelsat close quarters.The Orbit has been an instant hit

    with the public, with all tickets to go

    up the tower during the Gamesalready sold out. So great hasdemand been that operators hopeto make new tickets available.

    Those who were lucky enoughto bag tickets for Saturdaynight will have a uniqueview of Usain Bolt and Co

    scorching the mens 100msprint.

    Oh na, na: Rihanna cannotfilm on top of the Orbit

    Got A Story? [email protected]

    cityam.com/the-capitalistTHECAPITALIST

    INTEREST in British athletes' Twitteractivity may be concentrated on the

    messages some of them, such a s diverTom Daley, have been receiving, but onebookmaker at least is more interested intheir output.William Hill is offering odds on a Team GBstar going the way of Greekand Swiss competitors and being kickedout of the Games for an offensive tweet,and currently have them at 10-1.

    ATLONDON2012

    10 cityam.comWEDNESDAY 1 AUGUST 2012

    LONDON 2012 IMAGE OF THE DAY

    Stephanie Houghton and Kim Little of GreatBritains football team, who also play forArsenal Ladies, celebrate a surprise1-0 victory against Brazil at WembleyStadium last night.Team GBs women footballers have won allthree of their opening matches without

    Throughout the Olympics, City A.M. will bepublishing its Olympic Image of the Day. If youhave a shot you think our readers will like,please email [email protected]

    conceding a goal, putting them at the top ofqualifying group E. They will play Canada ina quarter final match on Friday.

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    IN BRIEFGames Workshop fulfils fantasiesn Fantasy game specialist GamesWorkshop has dispelled some of theeconomic gloom after it announcedyesterday that profits had leapt bymore than a quarter in the year to 3June, on sales up 6.4 per cent to131m. Popular model series like ForgeWorld and its Black Library fantasybooks helped drive pre-tax profits upfrom 15.3m to 19.5m in the period,just 18 months after a profit warning.

    Metro sales beat European woesn German retailer Metro managed aslight rise in sales in the quarter despitetough conditions in Europe. The worldsfourth-largest retailer saw a two percent rise in turnover to 15.8bn(12.4bn), better than forecasts. Theresults relieved investors althoughMetro made a net loss of 20m for thequarter. This was far less painful thanthe firms losses in the first quarter ofthe year thanks to an aggressive cost-cutting operation.

    Sharp drop for Warner Estatesn Property fund manager WarnerEstate Holdings yesterday revealed apost tax loss of 38.7m for the year

    ending March 2012, compared to aloss of 7.2m for last year. Themanager said this was mainly due tofair value adjustments on investmentproperties and investments as well asrealised losses on the sale ofproperties. Revenue was down slightlyto 29.5m from 30.5m, accountsshowed.

    EARLS

    COURT2

    012

    THE OFFICE of Fair Trading hasaccused InterContinental HotelsGroup, the official hotel sponsor forthe Olympic Games, and two of thebiggest travel agents of anti-competi-tive practices that limited the dis-counts offered on hotel rooms.The watchdog, which announced

    the provisional findings of its investi-gation launched in September 2010,said Booking.com and Expedia madeseparate arrangements with IHG,which allegedly restricted the dis-counts they could offer on room-onlyhotel accommodation.

    It described the deals as uncompet-

    itive in that they could squeeze outother travel agents trying to gain ashare of the market by passing on dis-counts to consumers.The findings imply that hundreds of

    Olympic-goers and other holidaymak-ers could be spending more for theirhotel rooms than necessary, aspokesperson said.

    IHG, which owns the Holiday Inn

    Games sponsorprobed in hotel

    price-fix dealBY KASMIRA JEFFORD

    and Crowne Plaza brands, denied thecharge and said it was cooperatingfully with the OFT.The deal between InterContinental

    and Booking.com is still in place,while Expedias alleged infringementoccurred between October 2007 andSeptember 2010, the OFT said. Theparties have three months to respond.

    'We want people to benefit fullyfrom being able to shop around onlineand get a better deal from discountersthat are prepared to share their com-mission with customers, said CliveMaxwell, OFT chief executive.

    Lovefilm hasannounced a tie-upwith studio Miramax tobring a roster of titlesincluding Kill Bill(pictured), Pulp Fictionand Bridget JonessDiary to its on-demand

    film streaming service.The Amazon-ownedbusiness needs toexpand its onlinecatalogue in the wakeof Skys move intoonline moviestreaming with thelaunch of its Now TVservice. Lovefilmsaddition of Miramaxslibrary of 700 films isthe latest in a string ofdeals in the last year.

    LOVEFILM ADDS MIRAMAX FILMS TO CATALOGUE

    InterContinental Hotels Group PLC

    31 Jul25 Jul 26 Jul 27 Jul 30 Jul

    1,520

    1,540

    1,560

    1,580

    p 1,577.0031 Jul

    CAPITAL & Counties said its jointventure with Hong Kongs Kwokfamily on part of its Earls Courtscheme would be finalised in thecoming months as the developer

    awaits planning permission onthe vast 8bn project.

    The billionaire Kwok brothers,who are being investigated inHong Kong on charges of bribery,

    bought a 50 per cent stake in itsSeagrave Road scheme, which willnet Capital & Counties 67m oncompletion of the deal.

    Chief executive Ian

    Capital & Counties takes a steptowards its Earls Court scheme

    BY KASMIRA JEFFORDHawksworth said the groupexpected to get outline planningconsent for the Earls Courtmasterplan by the end of the yearand to start building in themiddle of next year.

    In its interim results for the six

    months to 30 June, Capcoreported a 4.8 per cent jump inthe value of its property portfolioto 1.6bn, with its net asset valuerising 6.8 per cent to 177p a share.

    Its Earls Court estate rose 4.6per cent in value to 620m whileits Covent Garden estate climbed4.5 per cent to 856m in theperiod.

    BRITISH LAND yesterday said it hasbought a 50 per cent share in theEden Walk shopping centre inKingston-upon-Thames for 41.5m.

    The firm bought the stake in the1960s mall from the UniversitiesSuperannuation Scheme, itspartner on Whiteley ShoppingCentre in South Hampshire, whichis due to open next year.

    The pair plan to expand EdenWalk, which spans 276,000 squarefeet and includes 22 shops, threeoffices and a multi-storey car park.It is anchored by Marks & Spencer,Sainsburys, Boots and BHS.

    British Landacquires mall

    BY KASMIRA JEFFORD

    WEDNESDAY 1 AUGUST 201211NEWScityam.com

    Capital & Counties 1m square feet Seagrave Road site is part of its masterplan for Earls Court

    $)*&%*(*

    &%&%

    -$%&+(*")!&')*

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    GOOGLE said last night it hadpurchased social marketing firm

    Wildfire, in a deal believed to beworth around $250m (159.5m).

    Wildfire, which providessoftware that helps businessesmanage their presence on socialnetworks, has a list of clientsincluding Amazon and Sony.

    Its expertise will allow Google tounderstand advertisers demandsas social advertising threatens itsmain revenue source, while helpingto integrate its own social networkGoogle Plus into other services.

    The web giant makes most of its

    Google buys social marketingfirm in bid to expand ad reach

    BY JAMES TITCOMB cash from advertising on its searchengine but has so far failed to seesignificant uptake of Google Plus.

    Google said the acquisition willcreate new opportunities for ourclients to engage with peopleacross all social services. It hadpreviously failed in a bid to buyrival social ad firm Buddy Media,

    which went to Salesforce.comearlier this year.

    Wildfire claims its 400 employeesserve 16,000 customers including30 of the worlds top 50 brands.

    Google plans to slot Wildfire intoa group of online ad servicesoffered through its DoubleClick

    business.

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    12/19

    ANHEUSER-Busch InBev, theworlds largest brewer, fell short of

    second-quarter earningsexpectations due to the expense ofmarketing new US brands andhigher transport costs there and inBrazil yesterday, but it forecastimprovements in the second half ofthe year.The company, which last monthagreed to buy out its partner inMexico, reported a 2.5 per cent like-for-like rise in core profit in Aprilto June to $3.59bn (2.28bn).It said its margin had slipped dueto an decrease of shipments to US

    wholesalers, and the cost ofmarketing its new brands.

    AB InBev hitby marketingand transport

    BY CITY A.M. REPORTER

    Aer Lingus bats awayRyanair as profits riseIRISH airline Aer Lingus, which istrying to resist a takeover bid bylarger rival Ryanair, yesterday post-

    ed an 18 per cent boost in operatingprofits in the three months to Juneand said it would at least matchlast years profit performance.The former Irish flag-carrier said

    yields per passenger were up 5.3per cent compared to the sameperiod last year and revenues wereup seven per cent.

    If current trends continue, AerLingus operating profit, before netexceptional items, for 2012 will beat least that achieved in 2011, chiefexecutive Christoph Mueller said ina statement. Last years figure camein at 49.1m (38.m).

    BY HARRY BANKS Ryanair, the largest shareholderin Aer Lingus with a 30 per centholding, is in talks with theEuropean Commission to clear a694m takeover bid announced last

    month.Aer Lingus, in which the Irish gov-ernment holds a 25 per cent stake,reiterated its call for shareholdersto reject Ryanairs offer, which itsays the Commission will likelyblock.

    The firm told shareholders yester-day that a takeover would notmake sense financially, due to thelarge overlap in routes withRyanair and the 1.30 per share bidprice.Aer Lingus shares closed up 1.85

    per cent at 1.10 yesterday belowRyanairs offer price.

    WEDNESDAY 1 AUGUST 201212 cityam.com

    LONDON REPORT

    US stocks takea breath aheadof Fed meeting

    US stocks fell yesterday withtraders sights set again ontodays Federal Reservestatement on the economy

    and a possible new round ofstimulus.The Nasdaq, which underper-

    formed on Monday, was the small-est decliner among the three majorUS stock indexes in yesterdays ses-sion, thanks in part toAppleshares gain of 2.6 per cent after asource said a new product willmakes its debut at an event inSeptember.Volume was below average as Wall

    Street wrapped up its second con-secutive positive month, with mostof the monthly gains accumulatedlast week on hopes for more actionfrom both the Fed and theEuropean Central Bank. The ECBwill meet tomorrow.

    Coach slid 18.6 per cent after theupscale handbag and leather goodsmaker reported lower-than-expect-ed fourth-quarter sales.

    For the month of July, the Dowrose one per cent, while the S&P500 climbed 1.3 per cent and theNasdaq added 0.2 per cent. Afterseven months, the S&P 500 hasgained nearly 10 per cent for theyear, despite a slowing world econo-my.

    In yesterdays session, the DowJones industrial average fell 64.33points, or 0.49 per cent, to 13,008.68at the close. The S&P 500 Indexdropped 5.98 points, or 0.43 percent, to 1,379.32. The NasdaqComposite lost 6.32 points, or 0.21per cent, to 2,939.52.About 6.5bn shares changed handson the New York Stock Exchange,the Nasdaq and Amex, below the

    2012 daily average of 6.74bnthrough Mondays close.

    B

    RITAINS FTSE 100 fell yesterday,extending earlier losses, weighed

    by worries the European CentralBank may not deliver enoughstimulus this week to tackle a globaleconomic slowdown, as comments byGerman policymakers further dentedexpectations.At the close, the FTSE 100 was down

    45.97 points, or 0.8 per cent, at 5,647.66,also weighed by weak results from BP.However, the index ended the month uptwo per cent.Volume was once again weak at 73 per

    cent of its 90-day daily average, with manyinvestors keeping to the sidelines ahead ofcentral bank policy announcements.

    Germanys finance ministry reiteratedits view yesterday that there is no need togrant a banking license to the EuropeanStability Mechanism, the Eurozones newbailout fund. A banking licence wouldallow the ESM to borrow cash from theECB and purchase bonds from indebtedcountries.

    The news halted the FTSEs three-daywinning rally triggered by ECB president

    Mario Draghis pledge last week to dowhatever it takes to protect the euro,which fuelled expectations the bank will

    resume buying bonds to ease soaringSpanish and Italian borrowing costs.Banks were the worst performing sec-

    tor, halting a four-day winning rally andtaking a combined 11 points off theFTSE, as poor results from Europeanpeers UBS and BBVA capped momentumin the sector.

    Oil companyBPwas down 4.2 per cent,after it took a $5bn charge in its secondquarter results, struggling under theweight of litigation over the 2010 oil spilland a row with its Russian partners.

    Disheartening words from Europesend FTSE 100 deeper into the red

    BESTof the BROKERS

    DASHBOARDCITY NEW YORKREPORT

    YOUR ONE-STOP SHOP FOR JOB MOVES,

    BROKER VIEWS AND MARKET REPORTS

    FTSE

    25 Jul 26Jul 27Jul 30 Jul 31 Jul

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    5,500

    5,550

    5,635.2831 Jul

    Arle Capital PartnersHilary Ellis has been appointedhuman resources director at theprivate equity firm. She will alsosit on the board of AlmaConsulting, one of Arles portfoliocompanies. Ellis was mostrecently at Alstom, where sheserved as director of integrationand change management.

    PensionsFirst CapitalHugo James has been appointed chief executive ofPensionsFirst Capital. He was most recently at Credit Suisse,

    where he worked as managing director of fixed income.James has also held senior roles at Legal & General.

    Ernst & YoungThe professional services firm has hired four partners to itsfinancial services advisory practice. Olivier Biteau joins fromInvestance Group, Pierre Pourquery joins from the BostonConsulting Group, Andreas Toggwyler joins from KPMG, andSteve Watson transfers from Ernst & Young Australia.

    BlackRockMark Long has been a ppointed director of research in theinvestment management firms real estate team. He willoversee research, strategy and analytics for its UK property

    fund. Over his 20 year career, Long has also held roles atInvista and Aberdeen Asset Management.

    SeddonsThe law firm has appointed Richard Martin as a partner in itsproperty team. He was most recently a partner at DaviesArnold Cooper, and specialises in residential andcommercial property transactions.

    Blur GroupThe private technology firm has appointed RobertBrooksbank and Richard Bourne-Arton as non-executivedirectors. Brooksbank is chief financial officer of Carclo, andBourne-Arton is an entrepreneur and owner of UK Hydro.

    WHOS SWITCHING JOBS Edited by Tom Welsh

    +44 (0)20 7092 0053morganmckinley.comSPECIALISTS IN GLOBAL PROFESSIONAL RECRUITMENT

    CITY MOVES

    To appear in CITYMOVES please email your career updates and pictures to [email protected]

    in association with

    PFIZER reported higher-than-expected quarterly earningsyesterday, due largely to lowerspending on research andmarketing, and said it may fully

    divest its animal health unitfollowing an initial publicoffering of up to 20 per cent ofthe business.

    Pfizer said it earned $3.25bn, or43 cents per share, in thequarter, compared with $2.61bn,or 33 cents per share, a yearearlier. Excluding special items,profit was 62 cents per share.Pfizers global revenue fell nineper cent to $15.06bn, hurt bygeneric competition againstcholesterol fighter Lipitor, but ittopped Wall Street expectationsof $14.87bn.

    Pfizer profitsbeat forecasts

    BY CITY A.M. REPORTER

    THOMSON Reuters sales fell inthe three months to July astough conditions in Europe and

    banks cutting costs took theirtoll.

    The news and informationprovider said it expectedturnover to continue to declinein the rest of the year. Shares inThomson Reuters fell three percent on the news.

    Chief executive James Smithsaid the external environment is

    worse than we had expected atthe beginning of the year.

    Despite a four per cent drop inrevenue to $3.3bn (2.1bn), thecompany said its operating profitrose to 1.3bn. The company islikely to report worse revenues inthe future as subscriptions fall.

    Reuters ownersees sales fall

    BY JAMES TITCOMB

    ITV PLC

    25 Jul 26 Jul 27 Jul 30 Jul 31 Jul

    80

    78

    76

    74

    72

    70

    p 75.5031 Jul

    ITVDeutsche Bank hasdowngraded thebroadcaster from holdto sell on a weak adrevenue outlook. DB saysnetworks are in denialwhen assuming growthnext year, and has cut itstarget from 80p to 72p.

    Sage Group PLC

    25 Jul 26 Jul 27 Jul 30 Jul 31 Jul

    300.00

    297.50

    295.00

    292.50

    290.00

    287.50

    285.00

    282.50

    p287.50

    31 Jul

    SAGEPeel Hunt has moved thesoftware group to sellfrom a previous holdrating, saying the markethas over-reacted toSages acquisition ofBrazilian tech firmFolhamatic. The targetprice is 260p.

    Ophir Energy PLC

    25 Jul 26 Jul 27 Jul 30 Jul 31 Jul

    630

    620

    610

    600

    590

    p582.00

    31 Jul

    OPHIR ENERGYNomura has downgradedthe oil and gas explorerfrom buy to reducewith the financialservices firm scepticalthat Ophir can keep up itsrate of discovery.

    However Nomura haslifted its target to 683p.

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    SPONSORED BY

    ANALYST OF THE YEAR

    WEDNESDAY 1 AUGUST 201213CITY A.M. AWARDS 2012cityam.com

    TODAYS shortlists for the third annual City A.M.awards kick off with the five analysts we haveshortlisted who epitomise all that is positiveabout the City. Their independence and capacityto make accurate calls on stock or the wider

    economy ahead of rivals sets them apart.All have shown an ability to give detailed analysisrather than a knee jerk reaction to whatever

    snippet of information is released, whether it bean interim management statement or a notifica-tion of potential M&A activity. In a time of greatchange in the Square Mile these are the stalwartswho stand out. They understand how companies

    and economies operate while using mathemati-cal skills to give investors a clear picture with aforensic examination of facts and figures.

    HEADLINE SPONSOR

    Andrew SentancePwCThe former Bank of England monetarypolicy committee member is one of themost influential economists in the UK.

    His criticism of the extension ofquantitative easing to kickstart theeconomy has been central to the debateon how to stimulate the countrysgrowth.

    Sentance joined PwC in October afterfive hawkish years on the MPC.

    Clive BlackShore CapitalClive Black has been ahead of the packon arguably the biggest retail story of

    the year the struggle for Tesco to clingon to its market share. He downgradedfull year forecasts for the firm afterciting its international performance. Hehas warned that the giant will continueto struggle in the US.

    Mark StockdaleUBSMark Stockdale, head of Europeanresearch at UBS, has been a leading lightamong analysts for many years.

    Specialising in construction, he made hisname calling Travis Perkins a bargainstock some years ago just before its pricebounced. His team at UBS again led theThomson Reuters Extel survey in 2012 asthe top pan-European brokerages forequity linked research.

    Peter HitchensHSBCIn a notoriously speculative market,Peter Hitchens has made a number ofcorrect calls; notably his recent note on

    the Iraqi oil market and his views onGenel and Gulf Keystone. With 26 yearsas an oil and gas analyst, he is one of thelongest serving members of the sell-side.He worked at Panmure before beingpoached by HSBC.

    INSURER OF THE YEAROUR INSURER of the year award celebratesfirms from across the industry, ranging fromsmall specialists to global giants.Lloyds of London firms such as Lancashirequalify for their commitment to innovationand personal service in a global marketplace.Meanwhile the changing face of the Britishinsurance business is recognised with the nom-

    ination of firms such as Prudential. Once a verytraditional UK-centric company, it now occupiesa strong position across Asian markets.Last year was an unpleasant period for non-lifeinsurers who were hit by substantial claimsfrom earthquakes and floods around the world.But those testing times enabled the very bestfirms below to bounce back stronger than ever.

    PrudentialContinued speculation over its threats torelocate outside Europe cannot detractfrom the Prus global success. Chiefexecutive Tidjane Thiam has overcome

    the failure of his bid for part of AIG andsurvived a shareholder pay revolt tolead a firm that shows more growthpotential than most British insurers.Profits at its Asian business grew by 32per cent last year, contributing a third ofits 2bn earnings.

    CatlinThe catastrophe specialist has recoveredfrom a tricky 2011 to boost its shareprice by almost a third over the last 12months. Now the largest syndicate in

    Lloyds of London, it has led the way ininternational expansion with around halfits business written outside the UK,assisted by strong growth in the Asia-Pacific region. Gross premiums for thefirst quarter of 2012 were $1.6bn anincrease of 12 per cent.

    LancashireSpecialist Lloyds of London insurerLancashire boasts impressive performancefor a firm that was only founded in 2005.Its terrific profit record has allowed it to

    reward investors, who have seen theirshares rise by 50 per cent in the last twoyears. Chief executive Richard Brindle likesto boast that his FTSE 250 firm can outwitcompetitors by avoiding internalbureaucracy and preferring a collectivedecision making process.

    HiscoxChairman Robert Hiscox will step downat the end of this financial year, ending43 years in charge of the firm that bearshis name. He leaves the company in

    good shape, having grown it from anold-fashioned Lloyds business to be aFTSE 250 firm with a strong retaildivision. The firm recently launched aprominent cinema and TV advertisingcampaign using the firms tagline asgood as our word.

    Jardine LloydThompsonThe insurance broker has outperformedthe rest of the non-life insurance sectorfor almost five years by concentrating

    on specialist areas such as aerospace,life sciences and telecommunications. Atthe end of last year, shareholder JardineMatheson announced its intention toincrease its holding from 30 per cent to40 per cent, widely seen as a vote ofconfidence in the management.

    PROPERTY GROUP OF THE YEARIT HAS been another testing year for most indus-tries, not least for the property sector. The maintheme has been the continued lack of availabledebt, which has dried up development projects,

    while ongoing uncertainty in the global econo-my has shaken confidence and in turn stifleddemand for space.But it has not all been bad, particularly in

    London, which has continued to attract investorsfrom around the world due to its pre-eminenceas a global financial centre.Our shortlist of property companies and man-

    agement teams have showed resilience, focusand ambition, despite the recession. They havebeen at the forefront of exciting developmentsfrom retail to urban regeneration.

    WestfieldWestfield opened its 1.9m square feet

    Stratford City shopping centre inSeptember, transforming Londons EastEnd and setting the bar high for retail in

    the UK. The 1.45bn mall is Europeslargest shopping centre, with more than300 shops, 70 restaurants, a 14-screen

    cinema, three hotels, and the UKs largestcasino. It stands as a prestigious gatewayto the new Olympic Park and is forecast tolure over 25m visitors this year.

    Great PortlandEstatesGreat Portland Estates outperformed yetagain last year, delivering one of the

    largest net asset value gains among itsFTSE 250 peers. It was buoyed by goodletting activity, 404m of disposals and astrong development pipeline. Onehighlight has been its purchase of theRoyal Mails Rathbone Place site. It willseek planning permission next year.

    Capital & CountiesShares in Capital and Counties have rallied17 per cent in the year to date inanticipation that the masterplan for its8bn Earls Court redevelopment scheme

    will be approved this summer. WhileCapCo still faces major hurdles, including acourt case brought by local residents, the77-acre scheme will be one of Londonsbiggest regeneration projects once it takesoff. The firm has also made good progresstransforming its Covent Garden estate.

    Derwent LondonDerwent London has benefited from beinga pure central London player, where themarket has been more resilient thanelsewhere in the country. It achieved a

    record year for lettings in 2011 and hascontinued recently, with Burberry signingup for an extra 127,000 sq ft this year. Thegroup also has a large pipeline of projects,including its recent joint venture withGrosvenor Estates to redevelop 1-5Grosvenor Place at Hyde Park corner.

    HammersonThe Anglo-French property firm hasundergone a major shift in strategy thisyear after its decision to exit the Londonoffice market entirely to focus on retail real

    estate. As a result, shares have been thestrongest performer of the propertyleaders year-to-date, rising 11.1 per centand 25.2 per cent relative to the sector andmarket respectively. Hammersonsmanagement, led by chief executive DavidAtkins, deserve a round of applause.

    Charles DumasLombard Street ResearchThe chairman and chief executive of theindependent macroeconomicforecasting consultancy was a

    frontrunner in mapping the contours ofthe deepening problems of theEurozone. Charles Dumas clear-sighted analysis made him both anearly commentator on the likelihood ofa Greek exit, and a pathfinder throughthe evolution of the crisis.

    Book your ticket now for the City A.M. Awards, 17 October, at the Grange St Pauls: www.cityamawards.com

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    AN ENJOYABLE way ofspending a few relaxingholiday hours on the beach isto think about the best teamthat ever played a particular

    sport. It can be the team as a whole for example, is the 2012 BritishOlympic gymnastic team better thanits Russian equivalent in 1980? Oryou can construct a dream team ofthe top individuals in any sport. SirChris Hoy will be everyonesfavourite for the cycling team sprint.

    To enhance the pleasure of thisactivity, I am organising acompetition, with the prize of abottle of champagne to the winner.But there is a twist. Instead of thebest, I want entries for the worst

    team ever. And the team is not a

    ONE OF the most famoussecurity posters of the SecondWorld War read Loose LipsSink Ships. The idea was tocurtail careless talk and

    prevent giving away information tothe enemy. The Libor scandal hasfeatured a different problem: too littlecareful talk.The basics of the scandal are well-

    known. The British BankersAssociation (BBA) provides a referenceprice for interbank offer rates. Under

    unclear oversight by the FSA and theBank of England, at least one bank, butprobably several, colluded in riggingsubmissions that established the refer-ence price. The rigging has alreadybeen dated to at least 2007, but proba-bly extends a few years earlier.

    Numerous markets, including ship-ping and coal, use different methodsto provide reference prices. In most.price fixing is a crime. Yet these pricesare important and regulators some-times relax policy to help price forma-tion and aid overall competition.Although a number of methodologicaladjustments create Libor, like brute

    Forex is a leveragTrade today atwww.cityindex.co.uk/value-fx

    TRADE FX MAJORS FROM

    cityam.com/forum

    Scandals as crass

    as Libor should neverhappen in a globalfinancial centre

    THEFORUM

    Twitter: @cityamforum on the web: cityam.com/forum or by email: [email protected]? Disagree? Got a sharp comment?

    The Forum wants you to join the debate. Top responses will be reprinted in The Forum.

    14WEDNESDAY 1 AUGUST 2012

    MICHAEL MAINELLI

    Libor is fundamentally flawed andthreatens Londons global position

    elimination of outliers, the method isnot particularly sophisticated andfewer than 20 banks contribute.

    Obviously, a big part of the problem

    with Libor is that banks dont actuallyconduct transactions on these ratesquite a lot of the time. Therefore, theBBA calculates a theoretical pricerather than an actual willing buyerand seller price. But a bigger problemis that the BBA has failed to recognisethat its theoretical price combinesobjective, quantitative factors withsubjective, qualitative assessments.Radical overhaul is needed, incorporat-ing more sophisticated statistical andmathematical techniques. This wouldprovide better information andremove incentives to game the system.

    For London, the Libor scandal is a

    severe own goal. Regulators appear tobe both fools and knaves fools in thatthey failed to uncover the problemuntil 2008, and knaves in that theyfailed to do anything about fixingLibor with any sense of urgency.

    My firm publishes a semi-annualGlobal Financial Centres Index. Sincethe first compilation in 2005, Londonhas held the top spot, followed closelyby New York. Hong Kong andSingapore have since risen to join asglobal financial centres, principally

    due to the rise of Asia and the qualityof their regulation. Being a leadingglobal financial centre is a valuableprize that should be defended throughinstitutions and culture. Scandals ascrass as Libor should never happen.The two top areas of financial centre

    competitiveness are quality of peopleand business environment, particular-ly regulation. Before the financialcrises, people were paramount. Since2008, business environment hasbecome most important.

    However, one crucial aspect of finan-cial centre competitiveness is hard toexpress. For a financial centre to be

    attractive to foreign businesses, it hasto be perceived as being fair to foreign-ers. Fairness is signalled in many ways:ease of market entry, justice in courts,equal taxation. Fairness is also foundin market structure. Foreigners tend toenter markets where there is no domi-nant advantage to the local playersand there are numerous examples of

    competitors thriving. Ultimately, aglobal financial centres hold comesdown to feeling and trust, as much aspure financial logic.The Libor scandal makes London

    look as if foreign business isnt treatedfairly. There will be cries that overseasbanks were involved and that BobDiamond is an American. But this

    scandal gives the impression thatLondons core financial community isstill an old boys club, which is terriblefor trust.As such, London shouldnt be sur-

    prised to see strong attacks from Liborrivals. That said, given that Euroborand others use similarly flawedmethodologies, they also need tochange to be seen as fair.The need to relaunch, rather than

    fix, Libor is urgent. We need a strongsignal to show that London is open for

    business for anyone prepared to acceptfair regulation. Changing Libor will bea Herculean task, given how funda-mental it is to so many contracts. But afundamentally reassessment of itsmethodology is still urgent, even if itwill likely lead to higher rates andnumerous litigation issues.The problem here is not the mental

    capacities of regulators in the Bank ofEngland. We just need to start talkingopenly about radical changes that willprove London is a jurisdiction whereeveryone is treated fairly.Professor Michael Mainelli is executive

    chairman of Z/Yen Group.

    sporting one, but from politicaleconomy.

    In short, I want to know thecomposition of the worst Treasuryteam in British history.

    There are five slots to fill. Workingup from the bottom, they areeconomic secretary, exchequersecretary, financial secretary, chief

    secretary and, of course, chancellor.

    The Treasury website details theirresponsibilities.

    There are some strong candidatesin the current team. Chloe Smithwas completely clueless in hernotorious interview with JeremyPaxman. David Gauke worked for alaw firm connected with taxplanning before enteringParliament. All perfectly aboveboard, but it didnt stop himlecturing the rest of us on themorality of using legal tender to paya plumber.

    An even bigger hypocrite is thecurrent chief secretary, DannyAlexander. He made good use of theregulations to avoid paying capitalgains tax on the profit he made from

    his taxpayer-funded home. It was

    perfectly legal, yet he too nowpreaches from the pulpit on thetopic.

    But it is on its economic recordthat any Treasury team shouldultimately be judged. And this iswhere the competition gets difficult.There seems an endless litany ofpure incompetent acts. Laboursfailure to devalue in 1964, AnthonyBarbers inflationary boom of theearly 1970s, the economic chaos ofthe late 1970s, the massive bubble ofthe late 1980s, the ERM disaster inthe 1990s, and everything GordonBrown ever did.

    Devotees of economic history cango even further back in time. Onechoice could be Philip Snowden, the

    hapless Labour chancellor of 1929-31,

    who lamented, after the 1929 crash,that no one had told him Britaincould go off the gold standard.

    Here are the rules. Entries shouldgo to the email address below,headed City A.M.. The closing date is31 August. Name names, but a bit ofsupporting text will help. Themaximum length of each entry is300 words. But dont imagine, likethe Greeks and Spanish, that you areliving in a democracy. My decision,like that of the European CentralBank and International MonetaryFund, is completely final.

    Paul Ormerod is the author of PositiveLinking: How Networks Can Revolutionisethe World (Faber and Faber, 2012).Please email competition entries to:

    [email protected]

    AGAINSTTHE GRAIN

    PAUL ORMEROD

    A champagne prize for the worst Treasury team in modern British history

    In association with

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    15

    Banking guidance[Re: Our decisive central bank has beenneutered by regulatory confusion,yesterday]I agree with Lord Flight and, as a formerfinancial regulator, recognise the limitationsof all regulation. Too much is unrealisticallyexpected. Its an impossible task to protectfools from their own folly. In my view, theFSA has too wide a remit and it would bebetter to re-establish specialised regulatorsfor specific sectors. And we should bringback the Bank of Englands central role. Inmy early days in the City, it could exerciseguidance to institutions and maintainconfidence. Let the Governor exercise hisown judgement in helping maintain andregulate the City in the national interest.Godfrey Jillings

    Email woes[Re: Workers should not be spending 650hours a year on email, yesterday]l used to be unfortunate enough to work fora large corporation, and the number ofemails was awful. Spam messages frommarketing, copying everyone in oneverything even when they werentinvolved, emails to cover your backs, emailsbecause people couldnt remember whatyouve just told them, and an email again toclarify. Now I work for a small firm and weactually talk to one another. Theres noconfusion, no need to clarify, nomisunderstandings, and its much quickerthan penning long messages. You actuallyget to know your work colleagues as anadded bonus.

    Philip Johnston

    ITS THE question on everyoneslips. Which country will walkaway from London 2012 with thebiggest medal haul? Economistsare no different from the

    general public. Several have come upwith innovative ways of predictingwhat it takes for a country to winmore medals than its competitors.

    Goldman Sachs found that nation-al income is strongly associatedwith medal attainment. But it also

    noted that there is more to successthan high income levels. We, there-fore, need to look more widely.At the Legatum Institute, we pro-

    duce a prosperity index to measure acountrys total prosperity. Its aboutmore than a nations wealth. Ourindex is a complete assessment ofnational success and takes intoaccount factors like personal free-dom, health and entrepreneurship.

    Despite the fact that Team GB hasonly won four medals so far, we pre-dict that Great Britain will increaseits medal haul and beat its success atBeijing 2008, when it won 47. It maynow sound unlikely but, as hostnation, Britain will benefit from apremium linked to home crowdsupport and extra investment. TheUS will likely come out on top in therankings, and win a total of 91medals at London 2012.When we consider historical per-

    formance, the relationship betweenprosperity and total Olympic medalswon per head of population is clear:more prosperous countries win moremedals. Theres no simple explana-tion, but the results reveal interest-ing stories, arising not only fromeconomic differences, but cultural,institutional and political conditions.

    Nordic countries are both prosper-ous and win lots of Olympic medals.But detailed analysis reveals that acountrys economic performance isone of the weakest predictors of

    TOP TWEETSMore tweets are being sent during theLondon Olympics daily than during theentirety of Beijing 2008.@KingO-Delilia

    Im still revelling in Mondays first-time-for-a-century medal-winning performance byour gymnasts. Well done lads!@MayorfLondon

    I took a taxi home. It took seven minutes,through eerily quiet streets. The cabbie saysbusiness is terrible. West London is empty.@thomasknox

    I hope the Olympics will encourage peopleto become healthier. My only fear is theresas much chance as Osborne reviving GDP.@WilliamKWallace

    As London firms report low visitor numbers,is hope for an Olympic business boost dead?

    YESSo London has a big hit the Olympics. A brilliant show, with a

    cast of outstanding performers drama, fulfilled and shattereddreams, laughter and tears. Its a once in a lifetime and wereriveted. Were either going to see the events, or were watchingthem on a screen. Weve listened to the government, which tellsus constantly not to travel unless its essential. So were notcoming in to central London. Were not shopping, going to bars,restaurants or the theatre. Unsurprisingly, fewer people arecoming to the fantastic shows in my West End theatres. Ifbusiness picks up, Im hoping my takings will be no more than 20per cent down in September. If it doesnt, the drop could be ashigh as 30 per cent. I am going to lose a bit of money thissummer, but is hosting the Olympics worth it? Absolutely.Nica Burns is chief executive and proprietor of Nimax Theatres,owner of six West End theatres.

    Nica Burns

    NOMark Greig

    Regardless of whether visitor numbers are up or down, Londons

    winning bid for the Olympics has been a catalyst for change. Noadvert could be better than what the world has seen so far.Hosting the Games will leave a lasting economic legacy andpreparation for the event included a huge investment ininfrastructure. A capital city needs excellent transport links andthe economic benefits of improvements made for the Gamescannot be ignored. Additionally, the regeneration of East Londonhas seen demand and yields for commercial and residentialproperties in the area increase already. The Olympics have placedLondon at the centre of the world stage at a time when the euro isweakened. Property in London continues to be a strong and safeasset, and exposure from the Olympics will encourage furtherlong-term investment in the capital.Mark Greig is chief executive of Paramount Properties.

    RAPIDresponses Entrepreneurial

    nations win bigin medal tables

    Olympic success. More accuratemeasures include safety and security,quality of education and, most inter-

    estingly, the level of entrepreneur-ship in society.These latter factors are the results

    of developed institutions and infra-structure, the legacy of long-termpolicies. Consequently, the economicdownturn in Europe is unlikely tohave a negative effect on EuropeanOlympic performance.Although the relationship holds

    globally, some interesting stories arefound in the outliers. Its surprisingthat India (population 1.2bn) has wononly 20 Olympic medals in the last100 years. Meanwhile, Kenya (popula-tion 41m) has won 75 medals in thelast 50 years, even though it rankedlower in terms of prosperity in 2011.

    In fact, Kenya has won more medalsper head than both Argentina andBrazil. Kenya has risen up our indexsince 2009 and, if this is reflected inits Olympic performance, Kenya islikely to break its record of 14 medals.Although its certainly interesting

    to speculate on the underlying fac-tors that contribute to a nationssporting success, we shouldnt forgetthat the Olympics are primarilyabout individual prowess. Whetherour predictions come true or not,even us economists will enjoy theGames as true tests of achievement.

    Stefania Lovo is an econometrician at theLegatum Institute. She co-wrote the articlewith Nathan Gamester, a research analystat the Legatum Institute. The ProsperityIndex can be found at www.prosperity.com

    WEDNESDAY 1 AUGUST 2012

    STEFANIA LOVO

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    The Forum is open for you to take part. Got a sharp comment onone of todays columns? Do you have another subject you wantto share your opinion on? We want to hear your views.Email [email protected] or comment at cityam.com/forum

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