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Page 1: UTTAR PRADESH · 2018. 8. 15. · 4 Uttar Pradesh: Uncovering the Solar Rooftop Potential in Urban Cities 5 FOREWORD — India was used to be seen as an emerging market in the global

Uttar Pradesh: Uncovering the Solar Rooftop Potential in Urban Cities 1

UTTAR PRADESH:Uncovering solar rooftop potential in urban cities

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Foreword—Preface—Executive Summary—IntroductionUttar Pradesh—An Overview

Electricity Scenario of Uttar Pradesh

Air Pollution

100% Clean Energy Campaign

Solar Pathway for UP

—The 6 Cities’ ProfileLucknow

Agra

Allahabad

Kanpur

Gorakhpur

Meerut

—Solar Potential in the 6 CitiesElectricity Scenario of Uttar Pradesh

Potential of the 6 Cities in Uttar Pradesh

—Solar Rooftop Roadmap for the 6 Cities in Uttar PradeshSolar Rooftop Potential & Roadmap of Lucknow

Solar Rooftop Potential & Roadmap of Agra

Solar Rooftop Potential & Roadmap of Allahabad

Solar Rooftop Potential & Roadmap of Gorakhpur

Solar Rooftop Potential & Roadmap of Meerut

Solar Rooftop Potential & Roadmap of Kanpur

Business Models for Rooftop Solar InstallationTraditional Sales Model

Renewable Energy Service Company Model

Local Micro Utility Model Community Ownership

Model

—Government SupportImplementation Guidelines for the New Solar Policy

of U.P. 2017

Forecasting

Smart Solar City Plan

Creation of Roof-banks

Financing Framework

Incentive Structure

Mandatory Provision of Solar Rooftop for New

Commercial & Industrial Buildings

Group Purchasing Incentives for High-Rise Buildings

—Annexure—

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Centre for Environment and Energy Development (CEED) would like to acknowledge the contribution of several people involved in the making of the report “Uttar Pradesh: Uncovering Solar Rooftop Potential in Urban Cities”

Authors: Anand Prabu Pathanjali

Research Support: Pooja Kumari

Editors:Abhishek Pratap

Concept & Copyright : Centre for Environment and Energy Development (CEED)

Photographs: Centre for Environment and Energy Development (CEED)

Design: Pallavi Baasri

For further enquiries, please contact [email protected]

Copyright to CEEDAnalysis and errors are the sole responsibility of the authors.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

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FOREWORD

—India was used to be seen as an emerging market in the global renewable energy sector with a mere 20 GW solar target set under the JNNSM in 2010, but that outlook of the global audience on India’s energy sector has undergone a radical change in the last 2 years once the new government had raised the bar fivefold to a ambitious 100 GW by 2022.—

—This report by CEED, discovers the profound potential of rooftop solar in the major cities of Uttar Pradesh. It adds on as a sub-target to the new solar policy that was released in December 2017. The report’s true potential lies in the economic impact it can bring about by bringing in new domestic and foreign investments into the state and also result creation of thousands of jobs. —

Post the Paris COP 2015, our ambitious target of 175 GW by 2022 has put us in the global spotlight in all spheres of the energy consortium. The essence of today for everyone in India especially is to understand the intricate effects of climate change on our various aspects of daily life as an individual and as a country. In the last decade we have witnessed higher than normal temperatures in summer, prolong winter, shifting seasons, erratic monsoons with unpredictable rainfall, lower agricultural yield, frequent floods in dry or low-rainfall region and alarming increase in air pollution levels due to direct and indirect human actions. In each of these instances, immaterial as to which part of the country was affected, has has taken a toll on the citizens and the environment in a drastic manner.

India has committed to achieve 40 percent cumulative electric power installed from non-fossil fuel based energy sources by 2030. Solar energy is expected to account for 18 percent of the total power generation capacity in India by 2030 from one percent at present, playing a key role in the country’s efforts to achieve the 350 GW of renewable energy target by 2030. The evolution of solar rooftops in India has witnessed a significant transformation from the time when utility scale plants had signed agreement at tariffs of over Rs 17 per kWh back in 2009-10 to under Rs.3 per kWh in 2017. Solar has now become a common knowledge to everyone due to its extensive reach in the form of home lighting systems and off grid applications like streetlights, etc. Even in the remote regions of Uttar Pradesh, where reliable electricity has failed to reach, solar has been able pave inroads in providing basic lighting facilities. The cost of solar and wind are now cheaper than new built coal power plants that now even big companies and government buildings have put up solar panels on their roof to offset their demand. The larger awareness for rooftop solar projects in UP’s cities is still very much needed. This business has an unique opportunity to create a skilled workforce,

which is and will be in sort after demand considering the state and national targets. Rooftop solar has played a pivotal role in captive power generation for industries and companies where every hour without electricity mean loss of money, as many would recall what had happened in coimbatore region in Tamil Nadu, where the local industries had to be shutdown for business as the state was reeling in power crisis in 2014. The power of solar energy is in its versatility of being used to generated anywhere the sun shines, residential houses, parks, bridges, commercial spaces like mall, theatres and semi public places like auditoriums, schools, universities, hospitals, etc. all these places have the potential to generate electricity from solar and there by offsetting the electricity used from the grid. This in turn has a positive impact on the livelihood of the users as money saved on electricity bills is used for something more productive. This transition towards rooftop solar holds key in reducing the power demand in UP’s cities and there by diverting them to places where its needed the most. The categorisation of the potential in the different sectors also will aim to aide the project developers and the government on identifying early movers and shakers in the local market.

I believe this report by CEED, is in the right direction to light up more household in state and as wells in achieving the targets.

Ramapati Kumar,Chief Executive OfficerCEED

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PREFACE

—“Uttar Pradesh—Uncovering the Solar Rooftop Potential in Six Cities” is a comprehensive analysis of the rooftop potential of six major cities of Uttar Pradesh. It aims to suggest a roadmap to help achieve the ambitious solar rooftop target of 4300 MW set under recently approved new solar policy of the state. With reference to the urban energy crisis, solar rooftop projects are quite the game-changers in addressing the energy crisis in urban areas and help in mitigating the peak-time deficit. —

Solar rooftop projects are a boon for tier-2 cities that are not only consistently suffering with major energy crisis, but have also been battling with deteriorating air quality due to high usage of diesel generators as back-up power. A shift from diesel power generators to solar rooftop plants shall address both the issues simultaneously. The state’s major cities have some of the worst air qualities in the country due to rapid industrialisation and urbanisation along with indiscriminate use of diesel generators for backup power.

Rooftop solar, has proven reduce the load on the gird and provide clean electricity. With this intent, CEED has decided to conduct an exhaustive and comprehensive study of the solar rooftop assessment of six major cities of Uttar Pradesh. This report analyses the potential of each of the six cities in a categorised sectoral manner for easier understanding and implementation. The report not only paves way as a roadmap for the implementation of the 4300 MW by 2022 set by the new Solar Policy of 2017 but also acts a blueprint for the collation of roof bank data for easier implementation. The national solar rooftop target of 40 GW by 2022, does not seem far fetched, if other states also follow UP’s suite. The report also aims to mobilise in channelling in the necessary investments to set up the 4300 MW target.

All the six cities, including Lucknow, Agra, Meerut, Gorakhpur, Kanpur and Allahabad are the most populous cities of Uttar Pradesh and have high energy demand. Each city, in its own way, holds importance, either as a tourist centre or as an industrial centre and witnesses high footfall throughout the year. Our study suggests that the collective rooftop solar potential of all the six cities is 1674 MW, which is 38% of the total solar rooftop target set by the Uttar Pradesh government under the new Solar Policy 2017. The State government should now shift focus on developing a roadmap to achieve this target and tap the projected solar rooftop potential in a phase-wise manner. The energy mix of the state is still being dominated by fossil fuels, but if the set target is achieved by 2022, it will turn out to be a massive step towards the de-fossilisation of the energy mix of UP and the energy security of important urban centres of the state.

Abhishek Pratap & Anand Prabu Pathanjali,CEED

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

—“We are the first generation to be able to end poverty, and the last generation that can take steps to avoid the worst impacts of climate change.” –Ban Ki Moon—195 countries agreed to take appropriate actions towards climate change at the Paris Accord in 2015. Every country needs to take necessary steps in the right direction to uptake more renewable energy and slowly phase out fossil fuels. —The report recommends solar installation in these six cities for the government and public institution buildings where the grid parity has already been reached.—

Climate change is no more a denying factor after 195 countries agreed to take appropriate actions and signed the Paris Accord in 2015. India has set on a right path by committing to 100 GW of solar by 2022 and phase out all fossil fuel based vehicles by 2030 by switching to 100% electric vehicles.

To pave way to this ambitious target, all of the 29 states needs to come up with their own strategies on how to meet this goal. Uttar Pradesh (UP), the largest and the most populous state of India has an 8% RPO target of 10697 MW of solar energy to be connected to the grid by 2022. UP is heavily dependent on fossil fuel sources to power its economy. In January 2016, the state had a peak power deficit of 2485 MW, which is 14.6% of the total power demand, which is significantly higher, compared to the national average of 3.2%.

UP is blessed with solar energy and enjoys more than 300 days of sunshine, which makes it ideal to harness solar energy. It has vast lands which is ideal for ground mounted solar plants and numerous tier-2 and tier-3 cities that hold immense potential for rooftop installations. The solar radiation factor for UP is about 4.27kWh/m2/day which is well on the favourable side for tapping solar energy. The report focuses on bringing out the potential of 6 major cities namely, Lucknow, Allahabad, Kanpur, Gorakhpur, Meerut and Agra in the state where most of the growth and development is focussed on.

The key findings of the report showcase the sectorial and overall potential in each of these cities in an elaborate manner. The overall Solar potential in the 6 cities without taking into account grid factors is about 11,400 MW. Thus, the government needs to tap into this potential with the help of public and private partnerships. Different business models can be adapted to each of the respective sectors in all the cities and over time, the rooftop revolution in these six cities will make Uttar Pradesh more independent of fossil fuels and self-reliant.

—INTRODUCTION—

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UTTAR PRADESH:AN OVERVIEW

—Uttar Pradesh and its nearby area is one of the oldest regions in the sub-continent with presence of human habitation, dating back 85000 to 73000 BC. The region seems to have been domesticated as early as 6000 BC with a rich history, and abundance of wealth and prosperity. —

—Uttar Pradesh is the 4th largest state with an area of 2,94,411 sq. km and has a growing population of 223 million, which makes it India’s most populous state. Administratively, the state has 83 districts, 901 development blocks, 65 cities and urban agglomeration, and 112,804 inhabited villages. —

The history of Uttar Pradesh starts with the advent of Aryans hordes from Central Asian region. Its tryst with the history started as early as 2000 B.C when Aryans started settling along the Doab of Ganges and Ghagra. This settlement, which was predominantly rural in nature, was named “Madhyadesh” i.e. ‘Central Country’. Various Vedic era kingdoms ruled Uttar Pradesh in turn. The most notable one was Kosala that was ruled by King Dasaratha and his successor Ram. During the Mughal empire, Agra became the capital of India and became the heartland of culture and arts for over 100 years. The state was created on 1 April 1937 as the United Provinces of Awadh and Allahabad during British rule. Post Independence, it was renamed Uttar Pradesh in 1950. The state has provided 8 of India’s 14 Prime Ministers, including the 1st Prime Minister, Shri Jawaharlal Nehru. UP has the highest number of representatives in Rajya Sabha and Lok Sabha, and has always held the political leash of the country. Politically, UP also holds a special status since the current Prime Minister of India, Shri Narendra Modi has his constituency in Varanasi, one of UP’s premier cities. In 2000, the northern districts of the state were separated to form the state of Uttarakhand.

UP has maintained a poignant stature in the historical timeline of India. The economy of UP is the third largest in India, after Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu. UP’s Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) has reached to $130 mn in nominal terms. Garlanded by the 2 pious rivers of Indian civilization, the Ganga and Yamuna; UP is surrounded by Bihar in the east, Madhya Pradesh in the south, Rajasthan, Delhi, Himachal Pradesh and Haryana in the west, and Uttarakhand and Nepal in the north. It assumes a strategic importance for Indian union and lies between latitude 24º to 31º and longitude 77º to 84º East. In sheer magnitude, it is half the area of France and bigger than England.

—Figure 1: Map of Uttar Pradesh—

Pashchim Pradesh

Avadh Pradesh

Purvanchal

Bundelkhand

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ELECTRICITY SCENARIO OF UTTAR PRADESH

—Electricity plays an important role in economic development of the state as well as improving the living standard of people. The installed capacity in the state has grown from 1,362 MW in 1947 to 22,602 MW in 2017. This growth of the power sector in UP is part of the larger growth story of the nation in terms of its Power sector reforms over the decades. —

signifying an increase of 182% in 25 years, and is now the highest among the 3 major energy sources in the state.

Post FY 2012, the solar revolution in the country trickled down to the UP as well. As of 31.03.2017, there are about 800 MW of large scale solar projects commissioned in the state, out of which 350 MW has been completed and 450 MW is in the pipeline. In 2013, the UP Govt. released the first solar policy and subsequently it has be revised in 2015 and the latest version was released in December 2017.

The electricity consumption pattern has changed drastically over the last 25 years as seen in Figure 2 and 3. The Central pool allocates close to 6549 MW of power to the state.

The state’s per capita energy consumption has steadily grown over the years to 524 kWh/person, but still falls short vastly against the national average of 1072 kWh/person. UP has been battling in vain to electrify all its rural and urban households due to its vast population and lack of funds. Based on 2011 census and CRISIL projections, the total number of households in the state came to about 38.2 millions, out of which over 75% were rural households.

Out of these rural households, about 11.2 million households still need to be electrified. 44% of these 11.2 million households were already identified under various rural electrification schemes and the remaining 56% are yet to be identified and allocated. Similarly, as per the census and CRISIL projections, there are about 9.3 million urban households in the state, out of which 7.8 million urban households are already registered in DISCOMs’ records, while a remaining of 1.5 million remain unelectrified.

In the FY 2016–17, the Peak power demand of the state stood at 17183 MW where as power availability was 16110 MW resulting in an annual peak power deficit of 6.2%.

In the last 25 years, the share of hydro generation (UP Jal Vidyut Nigam Ltd.) has declined steadily, from 1432 MW in FY91 to just 525 MW in FY16. The contribution of the state’s thermal generation plants has increased from 3544 MW in FY91 to 4933 MW in FY16, an increase of just 39% in 25 years. On the contrary, the share of central sector power plants was 2052 MW in FY91 to 5790 MW in FY16,

As per the DISCOM’s records for FY17, the availability of electricity supply in Tehsil towns and Bundelkhand regions are 18–20 hours, while the district headquarters and major cities enjoy 24 hours electricity. Recently, after Shri Yogi Adityanath assumed office as the honourable Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh in March 2017, there has been a significant progress in the state’s electrification with a qualitative improvement in electricity supply for all. The Government of UP initiated a 24*7 Power for All (PFA) scheme after signing the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the Union Government of India with an objective to connect all unconnected households with electricity supply in a phase wise manner by FY19 and to ensure 24*7 quality, reliable and affordable power supply to all domestic, commercial and industrial consumers within a fixed timeframe.

—Installed Capacity MW (FY 2017)

—Electricity Consumption (%) in FY 09

—Electricity Consumption (%) in FY 2016

—Figure 2: Installed capacity MW (FY 2017)� Central / � Solar / � Thermal / � Hydro

—Figure 4: Electricity Consumption (%) in FY 09� Residential / � Industrial / � Agricultural

—Figure 3: Electricity Consumption (%) in FY 2016 � Residential / � Industrial / � Agricultural

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AIR POLLUTION

—The Indo-Gangetic plain which is home to over 600 million people, is a highly productive and fertile river basin. Uttar Pradesh is the largest state in the region, both economically and socially, and has experienced rapid urbanisation in the past decade. —

With high concentration of both industrial and agricultural activity to support the rapid development, the region is in serious grip of air pollution.

There is no single source of air pollution, but a number of both point and non-point sources that keep the levels of air pollution persistently high. These include vehicular emission, dust, solid fuel and waste burning, industrial emissions, coal-powered plants, deforestation and complex weather patterns. A study carried out by Urban Emissions identified that the changing wind patterns in the Indo-Gangetic region, especially during the winter season, tend to carry the emissions to several hundred kilometres. This leads to an exponential spike in the regional pollution levels.

According to a 2012 report by the Indian Institute of Technology, Delhi (IIT-Delhi) on aerosol formation, the entire region has high level of nitrogen and sulphur oxides, which are responsible for increased levels of particulate matter in the air—small particles responsible for the cause of asthma, chronic lung diseases and heart attacks.

The assessment of air pollution levels for cities in Uttar Pradesh highlighted that PM10 concentrations in all seven cities (with available data from Central Pollution Control Board), were higher than the annual average of 60 µg/m3, as prescribed under NAAQS—National Ambient Air Quality Standards. Comparatively, the con centration of particulate matter increases from year 2015 to year 2016 in all studied cities. The increase in the concentration was noted as high as 82% for Varanasi.

Quality Standards. Comparatively, the concentration of particulate matter increases from year 2015 to year 2016 in all studied cities. The increase in the concentration was noted as high as 82% for Varanasi.

As per Figure 5, the annual mean concentrations of PM10 among the seven cities was observed to have increased by 20% from the previous year; the highest of which is in Allahabad, with an average concentration of 276 μg/m3; followed by Varanasi (265μg/m3), Lucknow (262μg/m3) and Ghaziabad (239 μg/m3).

On an average for these seven cities, the PM10 count from summer to early monsoon months registered a change between 12%–53%, while a change of 10%–63%

was noted between early and late monsoon months. This shows the severity of the issue, especially in the months from August to December.

One of the major causes of air pollution in the region is the unmonitored usage of diesel generators for electricity in the urban pockets and for agriculture in the rural pockets. Necessary steps need to be taken to switch from diesel to cleaner alternatives to reduce the risk of respiratory diseases in the state.

—Figure 5: Concentration of Particulate Matter (annual average) in year 2015 & 2016 � 2015 / � 2016 / � Linear (standard)

—Annual Average of PM10 (/μgm3)

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U.P. CLEAN ENERGY CAMPAIGN

—Climate change is a hard hitting reality, and the current situation demands to adapt changes and safeguard the environment. —

—As part of the Clean U.P. campaign, this report focuses on the rooftop solar energy, which is also a major driver in the campaign. One of the biggest untapped potential in the state is that of solar energy. U.P. receives good amount of sunshine throughout the year. The annual average solar radiation in U.P. is about 4.6 Kwh/m2/day. —

The Clean U.P. Campaign was launched by CEED in October 2016. A call to action campaign, the Clean U.P. Campaign looks at the holistic perspective of creating a sustainable environment in terms of securing energy requirements through cleaner methods, working towards cleansing the air and water, and ensuring sustainable waste management practices. Uttar Pradesh can be a flag bearer of such a holistic campaign by moving towards 100% clean energy, clean air, clean water and zero waste solutions.

The key outcome of this campaign will help U.P. be pollution-free, achieve electricity access 24*7, and become a solar champion state in the region. UP adopting the solar pathway is an integral part to the Clean U.P. Campaign; as it will not only change the status quo of the state, but shall also create local job opportunities and bring financial investment to the state. Under the new leadership of Shri Yogi Adityanath, there has been new reforms in the electricity sector, especially in the energy access for all scheme. This campaign aims to accelerate the growth and development of the state in the most sustainable and efficient manner.

To achieve the ambitious 40 GW target for rooftop solar energy set by the Government of India under National Solar Mission, Indian cities offer ideal roof space for many ambitious solar rooftop projects. In U.P., there are about ten major cities out of which these seven cities are the largest, most populous and have considerably high energy demand.

❶ Lucknow / ❷ Agra / ❸ Meerut / ❹ Gorakhpur❺ Kanpur / ❻ Allahabad / ❼ Varanasi

The solar rooftop potential of Varanasi has already been discussed in a detailed report by CEED, namely Vibrant Varanasi—Transformation Through Solar Rooftop. The scope of this report is to quantify the potential of rooftop solar energy system in the remaining six cities. These cities are not only the largest but are also national/regional centres of economic, business, trade and politics. The report aims to quantify the implementable rooftop potential in these six cities and the way forward to implement it in a phase wise manner. Uttar Pradesh is a good sunshine state with an estimated potential of 22,803 MW. It is the 10th highest solar suitable state in the country. Uttar Pradesh on an average receives 5-5.5 kWh/m2/day worth of sunshine. Each of these six cities, more or less fall within this bracket.

In 2015, the UP government released its first Rooftop Solar PV Grid Interactive Systems Gross/Net Metering Regulations. As seen nationally, the early off-takers have primarily been the megawatt scale solar plants in the state, and there has been only a handful of rooftop solar plants in the state. Figure 7 shows the solar radiation data in six of these cities on an annual average.

THE SOLAR PATHWAY FOR U.P.

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—Figure 7: Solar irradiation pattern for six cities � Solar Insolation / � Maximum temperature (monthly average) / � Minimum temperature (monthly average)

—Annual DNI (kWh/m2/day)

—Figure 6: Annual Direct Normal Irradiance (kWh/m2/day) for Uttar Pradesh � 5.5–6.0� 5.0–5.5� 4.5–5.0� 4.0–4.5

—Lucknow

—Solar Irradiation Pattern for Six Cities: Insolation & Temperature

—Gorakhpur

—Allahabad

—Agra

—Meerut

—Kanpur—

Table 1: Solar Irradiation of Uttar Pradesh cities month-wise

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—THE 6 CITIES’

PROFILES—

LUCKNOW

—Lucknow is the capital city of Uttar Pradesh and one of the most prominent cities in India, in terms of commerce, education, history, architecture, culture and literature.—

Lucknow is the 11th largest metropolitan city in the country, and after Delhi and Jaipur; it is the 3rd largest city in North India.

The service sector forms the main economic base of the city. Lucknow is also an important education centre, and houses a number of research and development institutions. The power supply to the city is provided by the Madhyanchal Vidyut Vitaran Nigam Limited (MVVNL) and the Lucknow Electricity Supply Administration (LESA) which are subsidiary of the state power holding company, Uttar Pradesh Power Corporation Limited (UPPCL).

FACT SHEET

Area—Elevation—Population—District—№ of households

—Unelectrified household data—Mean annual PM2.5 concentration— Peak energy demand (annual)

2,528 km2

—123 m—2.9 million—Lucknow—Rural: 33.34% Urban: 66.55%—Rural: 69.80%, Urban: 8.83%—83.5 µg/m3

—1960 MW

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AGRA ALLAHABAD

monuments of national and international importance. The city also falls in the centre of the four cultural areas of UP—Braj, Bundelkhand, Rajputana and western UP. The Dakshinanchal Vidyut Vitran Nigam Ltd. (DVVNL) headquartered at the city is responsible for the electricity distribution in Agra. Torrent Power is the distribution franchise for Agra city since 2010. The private distribution company distributes electricity; and also maintains power lines and revenue in the city at a fixed rate, based on the agreement with DVVNL.

the Allahabad Metropolitan Area, along with cantonment board and urban agglomerations. The imprints of British and Mughals era can be seen in the city architecture including buildings, gardens and public places. The architectural style reflects a good mix of western gothic and Mughal influences. Allahabad is also one of the greenest cities of the state in terms of vegetal cover. However, ironically Allahabad’s ambient air is one of the most polluted in the country, according to WHO report, 2016.

Electricity services in Allahabad is supplied by Purvanchal Vidyut Vitran Nigam Ltd. (PuVVNL), a subsidiary of state’s power holding company, Uttar Pradesh Power Corporation Limited (UPPCL).

Agra is home to one of the seven wonders of the world —the Taj Mahal. The city is situated on the banks of the holy river Yamuna; and holds great historical importance, amply evident from the numerous historical monuments in and around the city. The origin and growth of Agra can be traced back to several hundred years, with a series of historical events leading to its present form, structure, character, culture and economy. Agra is ranked amongst the most outstanding historic cities in the world and is certainly one of the best known tourist destinations in India. The city boasts of three World Heritage Sites namely—the Taj Mahal, the Fatehpur Sikri and the Agra Fort, along with innumerable other

Allahabad is one of the major cities of Uttar Pradesh; a city of religious significance, globally, since it is situated at the holy Triveni Sangam (confluence) of the rivers Ganga, Yamuna and Saraswati. Allahabad was also capital of the erstwhile United Provinces, which is the present Uttar Pradesh. The High Court of Uttar Pradesh, also the largest high court in the country, is located in Allahabad. Like Agra, Allahabad is the regional centre of multiple cultural areas—Baghelkhand, Purvanchal and Avadh. The University of Allahabad was once a premier educational hub in India. Although the university has lost its erstwhile glory, it still holds significance in the educational sector, and attracts students from across the state as well as other parts of the country. The city area comes under

FACT SHEET

Area—Elevation—Population—District—№ of households

—Unelectrified household data—Mean annual PM2.5 concentration— Peak energy demand (annual)

FACT SHEET

Area—Elevation—Population—District—№ of households

—Unelectrified household data—Mean annual PM2.5 concentration— Peak energy demand (annual)

1,844 km2

—171 m—1.6 million—Agra—Rural: 54.58% Urban: 45.42%—Rural: 32.12%, Urban: 5.99%—91 µg/m3

—390 MW

900 km2

—98 m—1.2 million—Allahabad—Rural: 77.48% Urban: 22.52%—Rural: 69.55%, Urban: 11.26%—77.5 µg/m3

—380 MW

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leather products, Kanpur has branches of the Reserve Bank of India and the Institute of Chartered Accountants of India. The city also hosts several globally recognised institutions, such as the Indian Institute of Technology and Harcourt Butler Technical University (popularly known as HBTI).

Electricity services in Kanpur is supplied by Kanpur Electricity Supply Administration (KESA), a subsidiary of state’s power holding company Uttar Pradesh Power Corporation Limited (UPPCL).

density of 1,337 person/km sq. (2011). Close to 72.1% of the total area (4103.3 ha) falls under the residential area. Gorakhpur receives its electricity supply from Purvanchal Vidyut Vitaran Nigam Ltd. (PUVVNL) of State’s power holding company Uttar Pradesh Power Corporation Ltd. (UPPCL). As per the master plan 2021, about 111 ha of the residential area in the city has grown in an unauthorized manner, especially the peripheral areas, and other open spaces. This has led to proliferation of many slums. There are about 110 slums in the city accommodating over 33% of the city’s population. Despite this, Gorakhpur has a tremendous potential of growth. The Awas Vikas Parishad has developed many housing project under the master plan of 2001, and new proposed one is valid till 2021.

Kanpur is a metropolitan city, sprawling over an area of 260 sq. km. Kanpur is the second biggest city of Uttar Pradesh after Lucknow, and is the main centre for commercial, industrial and educational activities of the state.

Situated on the southern bank of the Ganga River, Kanpur has held an important place in the history of modern India. The city is formerly known as the Manchester of East, owing to its textile manufacturing base in the past. It is also called the commercial capital of Uttar Pradesh; known for its cotton and woollen textile, and leather industries. Home to the biggest producers of textile and

Gorakhpur is situated along the banks of the Rapti River in the eastern part of Uttar Pradesh, sharing the border with Nepal. It is the second largest city in the eastern UP after Varanasi. The city is home to the famous Gorakhnath Temple, many historic Buddhist sites, and the Gita Press, world’s largest publisher of Hindu religious texts. The city serves as the headquarter for the North Eastern Railways, and is an important centre for education and trade for eastern UP and northern Bihar. The city is 147 sq. km in area and divided into 70 administrative wards. Gorakhpur Master Plan 2021 envisages an urban area of 10,765.93 hectare, which has been subdivided into various categories of land usage. Gorakhpur is a major centre for socio-economic, commercial, cultural and administrative activities in north-eastern UP, with a high population

FACT SHEET

Area—Elevation—Population—District—№ of households

—Unelectrified household data—Mean annual PM2.5 concentration— Peak energy demand (annual)

FACT SHEET

Area—Elevation—Population—District—№ of households

—Unelectrified household data—Mean annual PM2.5 concentration— Peak energy demand (annual)

403 km2

—126 m—2.8 million—Kanpur—Rural: 35.50% Urban: 64.50%—Rural: 84.30%, Urban: 10.97%—79.7 µg/m3

—650 MW

141 km2

—84 m—.67 million—Gorakhpur—Rural: 80.40% Urban: 19.60%—Rural: 68.20%, Urban: 12.83%—79.2 µg/m3

—210 MW

KANPUR GORAKHPUR

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Paschimanchal Vidyut Vtaran Nigam Ltd. (PVVNL), is headquartered in the city itself. PVVNL is one of the four power distribution companies under state’s power holding company, Uttar Pradesh Power Corporation Ltd. (UPPCL). PVVNL has established two power stations of 22KV and 132KV, which supply electricity to the entire Meerut city.

Meerut is a major industrial and commercial city of Uttar Pradesh. It is an ancient city dating back to the Indus Valley Civilisation. As the second largest city after Delhi in the National Capital Region (NCR), Meerut is administered by the Meerut Municipal Corporation. Historically, Meerut holds importance, since the first revolt for the independence of India, the Revolt of 1857, was initiated in Meerut.

The city is also the largest supplier of sports goods in India. In western Uttar Pradesh, Meerut is an important educational hub with many renowned educational institutions. The power supply in Meerut provided by

FACT SHEET

Area—Elevation—Population—District—№ of households

—Unelectrified household data—Mean annual PM2.5 concentration— Peak energy demand (annual)

141.94 km2

—224 m—1.3 million—Meerut—Rural: 47.17% Urban: 52.83%—Rural: 43.13%, Urban: 9.12%—99.2 µg/m3

—900 MW

MEERUT

—SOLAR POTENTIAL IN THE 6 CITIES—

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THE CUMULATIVE POTENTIAL OF THE 6 CITIES

The previous sections of the report explains the solar radiation factor for each of the six cities. Based on the 6 cities’ profiles, solar radiation data and the land use patterns, the report estimates the raw available roof space available for solar installation. There are a lot of factors that need to be considered while calculating the rooftop space potential in each of the six cities. Figure 14 explains the methodology of assessment of the actual potential. A detailed methodology is explained in the annexure.

—Table 8: Solar potential assessment for the 6 cities under the different consumer sector

—Figure 8: Methodology of assessment of the potential rooftop space for solar

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POTENTIAL OF THE SIX CITIES IN UTTAR PRADESH

Lucknow3187 MW

Meerut

Lucknow

Kanpur

Allahabad

Gorakhpur

Agra

Agra1936 MW

Allahabad1577 MW

Gorakhpur883 MW

Meerut900 MW

Kanpur3010 MW

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—SOLAR ROOFTOP

ROADMAP FOR THE 6 CITIES OF

UTTAR PRADESH—

❶ Each city can be divided into different parts depending on the availability of power in terms of hour.

❷ The areas which have power outages for less than 2 hours should be first targeted for deployment of rooftop solar energy. This will help to deliver maximum benefits of a grid connected with the solar rooftop system and reduce any power outage during the daytime in these areas.

❸ Surplus power in these areas can be diverted and supplied to the other areas which have higher power cuts i.e., 2-4 hours during daytime. This would help the areas with higher power cuts also become suitable for the adoption of grid-connected solar rooftop systems.

❹ Solar rooftop installation can be implemented in government and public institutions for the first couple of years where the grid parity has already been reached. Commercial and industrial consumers can also be included in the first phase, as grid parity for these segments will be reached by 2018. Capacity addition will be slow in the initial years as support mechanism and market for solar rooftop will develop along with the required infrastructure put in place.

❺ Mandatory energy audit must be put in place for all the government, commercial, industrial and semi public buildings within the first 2 years and must put up in place energy efficiency measures (as per ECBC rules 2018) which will help in reducing the peak demand of these buildings demand these buildings.

❻ Once the grid parity level is reached for residential consumers, there will be a drastic increase in the installation process reason, considering that the residential consumers have the largest share of solar rooftop potential.

❼ The added solar capacity will help to meet the daytime peak power requirements. However, for evening and night time peak, it will have to depend on traditional power.

The above-mentioned map shows solar rooftop potential for each city as per the Net-metering Guideline and Grid Celling Factor, with 20% of the annual peak demand. Keeping these potential in mind, the report suggests following steps for implementation roadmap of solar rooftop for the six cities of Uttar Pradesh:

—Figure 9: 6 Cities’ Solar Potential

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SOLAR ROOFTOP POTENTIAL & ROADMAP OF LUCKNOW

Close to 80% of this potential lies in the residential sector, followed by the industrial and commercial sectors. Some of the key residential areas include the trans-Gomati regions like Indiranagar, Gomti Nagar and Sahara City, that are beingconsidered under this assessment.

The inner old city is not being considered for the assessment due to the age and structure of the buildings. Commercial sector assessment will cover all markets spaces in the city, including the ones in Hazratganj, the Chowk area, Yuhiyaganj, Fatehganj, Saadatganj, Faizabad Marg, Sultanpur Marg, Kanpur Marg, and several malls in the city. The assessment also includes the Sitapur and Hardoi road.

The total potential is achieved with about 37.83 sq. km of available roof space, out of the 306.43 sq. km of existing built area.

—Being the capital and the largest city in U.P., Lucknow has the highest potential of 3187 MW. —

As per the Net-metering Guidelines for rooftop solar projects in U.P., the solar rooftop potential of Lucknow is capped at 20% of its peak power demand. Peak power demand of Lucknow in the year 2016-17 was 1960 MW, which is expected to grow at 8% CGAR to reach over 3626 MW by 2024-25. Therefore, as shown in Figure 16, Lucknow can accommodate 177 MW of solar power in the existing grid in the year 2018-19.

However, with improvements in grid infrastructure and rise in power demand, this potential can be increased to 725 MW by 2025. In the initial 6 years, the annual capacity addition will be in range of 45 to 75 MW; and from 2022 till 2025, there shall be an accelerated capacity addition of 90-160 MW, annually.

—Figure 11: Annual solar addition (MW) vis-a-vis Peak Demand (MW) in Lucknow

—Figure 10: Solar potential estimation within different sectors in Lucknow

—� Yearly solar addition MW� Peak demand MW—

—With improvements in grid infrastructure and rise in power demand, this potential can be increased to 725 MW by 2025. —

—� Residential 67% � Public 06%� Transport 08%

—� Governement 06%� Industrial 07% � Commercial 06%

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SOLAR ROOFTOP POTENTIAL & ROADMAP OF AGRA

—Agra has an estimated rooftop potential of 1936 MW, out of which, around 85% potential lies in the residential sector. —The areas covered under potential assessment fall under the jurisdiction of Agra Nagar Nigam, and the low and medium density areas are developed by the Agra Development Authority (ADA). Industrial buildings have the second highest potential with 176 MW (9%). The total potential is calculated from 23.1 sq. km of available roof space out of the existing 88.77 sq. km built area.

As per the Net-metering Guidelines for rooftop solar projects in Uttar Pradesh, the solar rooftop potential of Agra is capped at 20% of its peak power demand. Peak power demand of Agra in the year 2016-17 was 390 MW, which is expected to grow at 8% CGAR to reach over 720 MW by 2024-25. Therefore, as shown in Figure 18, Agra can accommodate 78 MW of solar power in the existing grid in the year 2018-19.

—Figure 13: Annual solar addition (MW) vis-a-vis Peak Demand (MW) in Agra

—� Yearly solar addition MW� Peak demand MW—

—� Residential 67% � Public 16%� Transport 01%

—� Governement 03%� Industrial 09% � Commercial 04%

—With improvements in grid infrastructure and raise in power demand, this potential can be increased to 144 MW by 2025.—However, with improvements in grid infrastructure and rise in power demand, this potential can be increased to 144 MW by 2025. Till 2022, the projected annual capacity addition is capped about 2 MW; and post 2022 till 2025, it is expected to increase to 4 MW, annually. —

Figure 12: Solar potential estimation within different sectors in Agra

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SOLAR ROOFTOP POTENTIAL & ROADMAP OF ALLAHABAD

—The total potential of government buildings alone is calculated from the available roof space of 17.87 sq. km, out of the existing built area of 125.64 sq. km. —Allahabad has a total rooftop potential of 1577 MW. The biggest potential of 455 MW (29%) lies under the government buildings, followed closely by the residential buildings (25%). Being a district, a Mandal headquarter, and the centre for many state and central government agencies, including the High Court of the state; Allahabad has about 350 government offices, mostly around Civil Lines, Katra, George Town, Tagore Town, Teliarganj, Rajupur and Church Lane.

The above mentioned areas mostly contribute as the potential of the government buildings. The total potential is calculated from the available roof space of 17.87 sq. km, out of the existing built area of 125.64 sq. km.

—Figure 15: Annual solar addition (MW) vis-a-vis Peak Demand (MW) in Allahabad

—� Yearly solar addition MW� Peak demand MW—

—� Residential 25% � Public 18%� Transport 06%

—� Governement 29%� Industrial 13% � Commercial 09%

—With improvements in grid infrastructure and raise in power demand, this potential can be increased to 140 MW by 2025.—Peak power demand of Allahabad in the year 2016-17 was 380 MW, which is expected to grow at 8% CGAR to reach over 701 MW by 2024-25. Therefore, as shown in Figure 20, Allahabad can accommodate 76 MW of solar power in the existing grid in the year 2018-19. However, with improvements in grid infrastructure and rise in power demand, this potential can be increased to 140 MW by 2025.

Till 2022, the projected annual capacity addition is capped at about 2 MW, and post 2022 till 2025, it is expected to increase to 3 MW, annually.

—Figure 14: Solar potential estimation within different sectors in Allahabad

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SOLAR ROOFTOP POTENTIAL & ROADMAP OF GORAKHPUR

—Relatively a smaller city, Gorakhpur has a tremendous rooftop solar potential of 883 MW. Close to half of this potential lies in the residential sector. —Relatively a smaller city, Gorakhpur has a tremendous rooftop solar potential of 883 MW. Close to half of this potential lies in the residential sector. About 141 MW (17%) of potential lies in the public/semi-public buildings, and 123 MW (15%) in the government buildings. This entire potential is calculated from the available rooftop space of 11.01 sq. km, out of the existing built area of 102.11 sq. km.

As per the Net-metering Guidelines for rooftop solar projects in Uttar Pradesh, the solar rooftop potential of Gorakhpur is capped at 20% of its peak power demand.

—Figure 17: Annual solar addition (MW) vis-a-vis Peak Demand (MW) in Gorakhpur

—� Yearly solar addition MW� Peak demand MW—

—� Residential 47% � Public 17%� Transport 02%

—� Governement 15%� Industrial 10% � Commercial 09%

—With improvements in grid infrastructure and raise in power demand, this potential can be increased to 335 MW by 2025.—Peak power demand of Gorakhpur in the year 2016-17 was 210 MW, which is expected to grow at 8% CGAR to reach over 400 MW by 2024-25. Therefore, as shown in Figure 22, Gorakhpur can accommodate 42 MW of solar power in the existing grid in the year 2018-19. However, with improvements in grid infrastructure and rise in power demand, this potential can be increased to 80 MW by 2025. The projected capacity addition is about 2 MW annually till 2025.

—Figure 16: Solar potential estimation within different sectors in Gorakhpur

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SOLAR ROOFTOP POTENTIAL & ROADMAP OF MEERUT

—The biggest city of Western Uttar Pradesh, and an important commercial hub of the country, Meerut has a rooftop solar potential of 900 MW. —The biggest city of Western UP and an important commercial hub of the country, Meerut is also referred as the Sports City of the state. Meerut has a rooftop solar potential of 900 MW. The highest potential lies in the residential area of the city with 378 MW (42%), followed by 211 MW (23%) in the public and semi-public sector.

The entire potential is calculated from the available roof space of 8.94 sq. km, out of the existing built area of 50.94 sq. km.

As per the Net-metering Guidelines for rooftop solar projects in Uttar Pradesh, the solar rooftop potential of Meerut is capped at 20% of its peak power demand. Peak power demand of Meerut in the year 2016-17 was 900 MW, which is expected to grow at 8% CGAR to reach over 1666 MW by 2024-25.

—Figure 19: Annual solar addition (MW) vis-a-vis Peak Demand (MW) in Meerut

—� Yearly solar addition MW� Peak demand MW—

—� Residential 42% � Public 23%� Transport 03%

—� Governement 12%� Industrial 15% � Commercial 05%

—Till 2022, the projected annual solar capacity addition is about 3 MW, and post 2022 till 2025, it is expected to increase to 6 MW, annually.—Therefore, as shown in Figure 24, Meerut can accommodate 180 MW of solar power in the existing grid in the year 2018-19. However, with improvements in grid infrastructure and rise in power demand, this potential can be increased to 335 MW by 2025. Till 2022, the projected annual capacity addition is about 3 MW, and post 2022 till 2025, it is expected to increase to 6 MW, annually.

—Figure 18: Solar potential estimation within different sectors in Meerut

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SOLAR ROOFTOP POTENTIAL & ROADMAP OF KANPUR

—Being the second largest city in U.P., Kanpur has the second largest rooftop solar potential of 3010 MW. Close to 70% of this potential lies in the residential sector. —For assessment, the outer city provides more organized development patterns, with relatively better infrastructure suited for rooftop projects. This area mainly lies in the northvvwest region (including posh Civil Lines, Tilak Nagar, Arya Nagar and Swaroop Nagar), south-west region, and western part of the city, including Panki, Kalyanpur and Indra Nagar area.

The second highest potential lies with the industrial sector, which has a potential of close to 330 MW (11%). Known as the ‘Manchester of East’, Kanpur has more than 500 industries, mostly large and medium scale that is located in areas like Panki Industrial Area, Dada Nagar Co-operative Industrial Estate, Kalpi Road Industrial area, Government Industrial Estate, Shikshit Berojgar Industrial Asthan Panki, Uptron Industrial Estate Panki, Rooma Industrial area, Fazalganj, and Saresh Bagh. The entire potential is calculated from the available roof space of 35.22 sq. km, out of the existing 240.28 sq. km of built area. —

Figure 21: Annual solar addition (MW) vis-a-vis Peak Demand (MW) in Kanpur

—� Yearly solar addition MW� Peak demand MW—

—� Residential 65% � Public 10%� Transport 03%

—� Governement 07%� Industrial 11% � Commercial 04%

—Kanpur can accommodate 130 MW of solar power in the existing grid in the year 2018-19, and with improvements, this can be increased to 250 MW by 2025.—As per the Net-metering Guidelines for rooftop solar projects in Uttar Pradesh, the solar rooftop potential of Kanpur is capped at 20% of its peak power demand. Peak power demand of Kanpur in the year 2016-17 is 650 MW which is expected to grow at 8% CGAR to reach over 1202 MW by 2024-25. Therefore, as shown in figure, Kanpur can accommodate 130 MW of solar power in the existing grid in the year 2018-19. However, with improvements in grid infrastructure and rise in power demand, this potential can be increased to 250 MW by 2025. The projected capacity addition is about 2 MW annually till 2025.

—Figure 20: Solar potential estimation within different sectors in Kanpur

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—BUSINESS MODELS FOR ROOFTOP SOLAR INSTALLATION—Several business models exist today that can be utilised for solar rooftop installation. The pros and cons of all these models are listed here.

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—The most common type of business model for solar rooftop installation in India is the Capex based Traditional Sales Model. This is also called the Self-Consumption model or the Capital Subsidy model.According to this model, the complete solar power generation system or plants, including solar modules, inverters and batteries (if required) are purchased directly by the consumers. —

Any EPC or system integrator can be hired by consumer for installation of solar energy system on their roof-space. The rooftop system under this model can be both off-grid or grid-connected. If the consumer wants to connect with the grid, they can do so, either with gross metering or net-metering systems.

Net Metering is an arrangement wherein the surplus power generated by the plant is supplied to the DISCOM.

Gross Metering is an arrangement where all the power generated by the plant is directly supplied to the DISCOM. As per this model, the consumer is the plant owner and is en-tailed to invest 100% cost of the setup upfront. Hence, the model is suited for consumers who can afford the investment for solar rooftop plant, and also have the willingness to invest the entire capital upfront. Such an investment is mostly feasible for the industrial and commercial consumers who can claim tax benefits in the form of accelerated depreciation for owning such power plants as well as income tax exemption. A subsidy of 30% is provided by the Ministry of New & Renewable Energy (MNRE), Government of India, for this model for residential, public and government institutions like schools, hospitals, educational institutes and social sector consumers.

However, this subsidy will be based on the benchmark costprovided by the MNRE, which is Rs. 65,000 for project sizes from 10kWp–100kWp, and Rs. 70,000 for projects under 10kWp. This model is also favourable in terms of zero legal hassles concerning the purchasing and install-ation process.

TRADITIONAL SALES MODEL

—In most urban cities with abundant low-rise buildings and a majority of moderate income groups, this model can be promoted through the Roof Aggregator Model, where consumers and system installers are connected, offer low system cost to consumer groups and acts as sales channels or agents for system installers. —

However, the biggest drawback for this model is that it requires the consumers to pay the entire cost upfront, which can be difficult for most residential consumers. A typical 5kW solar rooftop (suitable for 2-bedroom house) cost Rs. 3.50 lac. With the 30% subsidy from MNRE, this cost will reduce to Rs. 2.40 lac. Some market retail figures also suggest that the cost per kWp is around Rs. 52,000 - Rs. 55,000, without any further subsidy. The total project cost for 5 kW system in this price range would be around Rs. 2.60 to 2.75 lac.

In the last couple of years, the way solar prices have gone down, the Traditional Sales Model has started to become more and more financially viable for residential consumers, given that the retail tariff of electricity is incessantly increasing. However, due to the relatively higher upfront capital investment, this model is more relevant amongst the upper-middle class, as compared to the middle and lower-middle class residential consumers. Moreover, a model that runs on subsidy will eventually make it difficult for the government to scale up, owing to the huge financial deficits it will add on the state exchequer. In most urban cities with abundant low-rise buildings and a majority of moderate income groups, this model can be promoted through the Roof Aggregator Model, where consumers and system installers are connected, offer low system cost to consumer groups and acts as sales channels or agents for system installers. The Roof Aggregator Model is highly successful in many parts of the world, including the United States.

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—Under the RESCO Model, a third party investor would invest in solar PV on the rooftop of potential consumers and sell power to them. This model does not mandate the consumers to pay any amount upfront, and they are liable to only rent out their roofs for solar PV installation. Under this model, the Gross Metering mechanism is used for the best economic viability of the project. —This model is more feasible for large-scale projects, with either large individual plants or with multiple small plants clustered together. —

Gross Metering is an arrangement wherein the entire energy generated from the Solar PV system installed at the consumer premises is delivered to the DISCOM. If the solar power is viable, the consumers can be saved from paying exorbitant amounts as electricity bill. The model entails the consumers and RESCO to make an agreement on power purchase, which mainly includes long-term tariff with annual escalation and duration of the purchase (usually 15-20 years). In some cases, the investor may also offer a monthly or quarterly payment of a fixed amount to their consumers. Such a setup is called a Lease RESCO Model. RESCO bears the responsibility of the installation, operation and maintenance of the solar rooftop system.

Such a setup helps in reducing the transaction cost which is quite high in case of small individual projects. A typical 50 kW system costs Rs. 26 lac upfront, while 75 kW systems will cost Rs. 39 lac. This model can be availed by commercial and industrial consumers, who do not wish to bear the entire cost but are willing to commit for a long-term tariff or monthly payment option. Cooperative housing societies can also adopt this model with regular monthly payments for a long-term period. This model can become more attractive if RESCO offers solar tariffs lower than the grid tariff. However, the biggest concern with the project arises in terms of bankability, since its feasibility depends on the credit-worthiness of the consumers. The roof-owner and the power consumer happens to be the same entity. Thus, there is a risk factor since the power will be sold to the roof-owner cum consumer for a long period of time. Nevertheless, the model also has a bright side, which is that the consumer is not mandated to make the upfront investment and thus, can be easily convinced to participate in such a setup. The consumer can also make potential savings from the electricity bill, if the solar tariff is lower than the grid tariff.

RENEWABLE ENERGY SERVICE COMPANY MODEL

—The Local Micro-Utility Model can address the key concern of bankability of the RESCO model if solar power generators are allowed to operate without any restriction to sell power to a third party. Solar power developers can take clustered roof space in designated areas on rent, install solar PV system, and sell power to multiple consumers including roof space owners and also DISCOMs at a prefixed tariff. Such a setup can provide more options for the investor, thus lowering the risk factor and improving the bankability of the project. —

The Local Micro-Utility Model is effective with the gross metering system. This model is highly attractive for cooperative housing societies, where large roof spaces are available, but consumers do not have enough resources or are not willing to invest on solar power upfront. Furthermore, this model can also offer additional income for roof-owners through lease or roof rent. For solar power generators or project developers, this model offers the feasibility to scale-up, since it involves large numbers of consumers, which thereby reduces transaction costs due to the large scale of the solar plant.

With scalability as an option, this model makes solar power, a viable choice, even before grid parity reaches for residential consumers. Building owners will also benefit as they will be able to generate additional income through renting out their roof space for a longer duration of time (about 15-20 years). Renting out the roof separately for solar power generation is an incentive to earn extra income for house-owners. In most cases, the roof is not included in the house rent; hence, renting out the roof space will give monetary gains to owners that was not tapped into before.

Furthermore, having a solar PV installed on the roof will help the top-floor residents, since the panels will keep the ceiling cool during the scorching summer months. This model can be combined with the RESCO model, wherein the project developer can sell power back to the building owner as well. In such a case, the lease for the rooftop might be waived in favour of a lower solar power tariff.

LOCAL MICRO UTILITY MODEL

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A key drawback with this model is the possible change of building owners from time to time. If the building is sold to new owners who are not willing to have a solar PV systemon their roof, the project developer will have to shift the system to another location. Shifting an existing system to another roof would create significant additional costs and will pull back the viability of solar. However, such things can be minimized if a proper legal contract is formulated in the beginning. Moreover, in housing societies, the roof is considered as common property. Thus, as long as there is

The community ownership model is quite similar to the Local Micro-Utlity Model, with only one major difference; which is that of the ownership. As per this model, the investors are the group of housing societies, residential complexes and apartments who invest in rooftop systems of a fairly large scale (100 kW) through Resident Welfare Associations (RWAs) or cooperative housing societies, and hire RESCO to manage the system. Each member of the RWA or housing society is entitled to pay a pre-fixed tariff per unit of electricity. A gross metering system is used

COMMUNITY OWNERSHIP MODEL

an understanding between investors and housing societies, such a risk can be managed. Another big challenge with this model is the lack of regulatory support for selling distributed power directly to end customers. This model’s greatest advantage is that it unlocks a greater number of residential rooftops for PV systems by providing economies of scale to the developers, and an easy income opportunity to roof-top owners. The city of Gandhinagar in Gujarat has initiated a pilot project that has some characteristics of the solar rooftop leasing model described above.

in this kind of model. Such a system is quite prevalent in group housing societies in high-rise buildings, which use solar energy as their power back-up. However, due to the local scale of the system, the tariff for back-up power is fairly high.

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—GOVERNMENT

SUPPORT—

The Solar Energy Policy of Uttar Pradesh 2017, was notified in December 2017, The new policy aims at a capacity addition of 10,700 MW by 2022 out of which 4300 MW is target-ed at rooftop installations. Foe effective implementation of the targets within the timeline, the report suggests to bring out a city and sector wise implementation guideline to benefit the early adopters.

To achieve the solar energy target envisaged for these 6 cities, it is imperative for the gov-ernment to adopt improved weather forecasting techniques. Forecasting for conventional power planning is already in practice on a daily basis. However, forecasting technique for solar power needs to be far more accurate, since even a single parameter can affect power generation from the solar energy plants. Achieving a cent percent accurate prediction is im-possible, but an efficient forecasting technique can help the DISCOMs to manage solar ef-fectively, and also help to optimally utilize the different power resources at its disposal. This will also reduce the cost for DISCOMs on spot purchases of electricity, in case of deficit.

Lucknow, Agra, Kanpur and Allahabad are part of the smart city scheme launched by theGovernment of India in 2015. Ensuring a round the clock power supply is one of the key features of a smart city plan, which can be delivered through smart solutions, like adopting a large-scale use of rooftop solar combined with adopting energy efficiency measures, and smart meter application systems. Therefore, it is imperative for these cities to have a city-level plan for solar energy, with emphasis on solar rooftop projects. The plan should educate the citizen about the potentiality and viability of solar rooftop systems. The document must also elaborate on the available support mechanisms including financial support for easy deployment of solar energy within different consumer groups of the city.

IMPLEMENTATION GUIDELINES FOR THE NEW SOLAR POLICY OF U.P. 2017

FORECASTING

SMART SOLAR CITY PLAN

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Similar to land-bank for ground mounted solar projects, the state government can provide support for creating roof-banks through policy instrument in the new solar policy. This will build a new entrepreneurship model where roof aggregators can link prospective roof-owners with project developers. These roof aggregators may act as facilitators with attractive business models to offer to roof owners and project developers. The city administration can create roof banks by identifying prospective roof-owners, measuring their roof-space and publishing a list on its website. A set of guidelines should be prepared for protecting the interests of roof-owners to build their confidence, so that they don’t hesitate to volunteer to offer their roof space for solar energy projects.

The Government of India and the State Government have prioritised solar energy through their policies. Despite their wide promotion, getting a loan from the bank for distributed solar energy projects, such as solar rooftop systems, is an uphill task for individual consumers; considering the lack of bankability of individual projects due to its scale. Although, the cost of solar energy has reduced by 70-75% since 2009, it still demands a high upfront cost for residential consumers and small enterprises. To address these concerns and making credit access at the level of local banks convenient, the report suggests creating a risk guarantee fund to support the banks to lend distributed solar projects in Uttar Pradesh. This may also help in reducing the interest rate in commercial private banks and create a wider consumer base that can receive the financial support. A dedicated Non-Banking Financial Corporation (NBFC) can also be considered to enhance the credit line for distributed renewable energy projects, including solar rooftop systems. The NBFC can be created at the national or state level for decentralized solar energy projects.

Finally, the government should instruct all public and private sector commercial banks to adopt easy credit access facilities for solar energy projects; and instruct them to train their staff at local and branch levels on solar energy technology, its performance and benefits.

Based on the analysis of different incentive models for rooftop solar projects, the report suggests a long-term financing model with low interest rate and Generation Based Incentive (GBI) as the preferred incentive model for residential

CREATION OF ROOF-BANKS

FINANCING FRAMEWORK

INCENTIVE STRUCTURE

consumers in the six cities of UP, with a phase-out timeline. The phasing out of such incentives will be in the year when the grid parity reaches for the residential consumer groups, which is estimated to be the year 2019. This incentive model is best for consumers as well as the government because it keeps the government expenditure to a minimum level and spread across a span of multiple years. Moreover, since the incentive will be given on an annual basis and on generation of power, it will motivate consumers to buy quality products and maintain the system well. This model is also beneficial for the consumers as it reduces the upfront cost and provides them with yearly incentive for over a long period of time which will help reduce their annual or monthly energy bill.

This report suggests that the government is not required to give out any additional capital subsidy over the 30% CFA that is already implied by the MNRE for residential consumers and government agencies. The additional subsidy will not meet the intended target and will only accrue as a wasteful expenditure. However, if the government intends to provide a capital subsidy to its consumers, it should be provided in the form of collateral management for low cost long-term financing. The report also suggest an exemption of electricity duty from rooftop solar energy projects for a period of five years starting from the year . This will assist in lowering down the cost of electricity under RESCO model and the micro-utility model, and will encourage consumers to opt for such an option. Delhi, Maharashtra and Telangana have waived off electricity duty from solar rooftop projects.

The air quality in the state of UP is deteriorating due to the rising air pollution caused partly by diesel generators. This report suggests a mandatory provision of the solar rooftop system covering 20% of the power demand for all existing and new commercial and industrial establishments with a power load above 100 KVA. This mandatory provision for industrial and commercial consumers having load capacity of 100 KVA and above, should start from 2018. And for those buildings which does not have adequate roof provisions at their premises, these industrial and commercial must look at investing and developing solar rooftop systems from the potential list under the roof bank data.

MANDATORY PROVISION OF SOLAR ROOFTOP FOR NEW COMMERCIAL & INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS

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Several high-rise buildings and cooperative societies are coming up in these cites and especially in the outer suburbs. This report suggests adopting a neighbourhood approach for the implementation of rooftop solar deployment. A group purchasing model may be helpful in implementing this approach more effectively. The local administration with support from Uttar Pradesh New and Renewable Energy Development Agency (UPNEDA) may organize events where housing societies can come together to purchase rooftop solar systems with loans and incentives. Large number of buyers at one place reduces the cost incurred by the banks for processing individual applications. This would, in turn, help the buyers get loans and incentives in lesser durations of time and would make it a hassle free process. For the district administration, this will help in deploying the solar rooftop system in the particular neighbourhood within a shorter timespan and will also make it easy to monitor.

GROUP PURCHASING INCENTIVES FOR HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS

—ANNEXURE—

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Methodology for calculating the rooftop solar potential

For the potential assessment of these six cities, the elimination method is chosen to calculate the solar suitable rooftop area in which various factors depending on the categories are dis-counted from the available land use area. These factors are calculated using various tech-niques, such as google mapping, using the 2011 census data, and by conducting field visits in each of the cities.

Only developed land has been considered over the proposed land for the calculation pur-pose. To determine the total roof area suitable for PV, we’ve excluded any area that did not meet our criteria.

Elimination method is chosen to calculate the solar suitable rooftop area by deducting the loss factors. These loss factors depend on the categories of users and are discounted from the developed land area. Certain factors are also calculated using various techniques such as google mapping, using the census data, dialogue with officials and making field visits. Are-as that had sufficient solar suitable rooftop space, concrete constructions and occupants that could afford solar installation were only taken as qualified for this analysis.

Criteria:

· Bearing the weight of the system : Rooftop solar PV plants are fairly heavy (about 30-60 Kgs/m2). They do not pose a prob-lem for concrete roofs but cannot be installed on asbestos roofed sheds. Metal roofed facili-ties may or may not be able to withstand the weight and wind load. However, certain strong metal roofs for transport facilities has been considered for the assessment.

· Shading from Shadows :Shadows not only reduce the panel output, they may also cause panel damage. Shadowed areas turn from being conductor to insulator and start heating up – it can eventually burn up those areas. Such damages are not covered by warranty. Shadows that fall on the plant can be from :

❶ Neighbouring structures –Buildings, hoardings, mobile phone towers, and even trees can cast a shadow on a rooftop PV system.

❷ The PV system itself – one row of panels can cast a shadow on the row behind them; the further we move away from the equator; the longer the shadow that is cast, and greater the amount of room required between rows of panels

Solar Suitability Factor (SSF):

Solar suitable rooftop space excludes parts of the rooftop that are obstructed by objects and rooftop structures like water tanks, air-conditioning units, water heating units, etc. It also excludes parts of the roof that are shadowed, or have shafts and other amenities that are in-stalled for the entire building, like ventilating shafts, drying clothes and storage units that occupy most of the area on a residential rooftop leaving limited unoccupied/ unobstructed space.

We have considered deducting between 30 - 50% of the total built area for the installation of solar PV. This estimation varies largely for different categories of land area.

Estimating Power Approx Power Generation (kW):

To determine the quantity of power generation from these quantified roof space, we have considered that under clear skies and good sunshine, each square meter of roof space will receive about 1000 watts of solar energy. At a typical 15% panel efficiency, a 1 sq. m area will generate 150 watts of power.

For 1 kW power output, about 7 sq. m of shade-free area will be required. After leaving some free space, about 10-12 sq. m clear roof area will be required. We have considered 12 sq. m of shade-free unobstructed roof area per kW of capacity.

Average plot size vs Affordabilty assumption:

Not all plot size can offer an ideal roof space, with minimum unobstructed space required for any rooftop PV installation. Based on this, we have only considered plot size above 100 sq. m.

This excludes mostly the economically weaker sections (EWS) and the low income groups (LIG) housing complex. Over here the average plot size does not exceed 48 sq. m . Also, not all inhabitants of these colonies, belonging to low-income groups, will not be able to afford the upfront investment costs associated with solar installations. Computation of solar suitable roof space for various categories

Based on the master plan 2021 and 2011 census data for each of the cities, the land use pat-tern is established first. Out of this, the built up area is distinguished according to the resi-dential, commercial,

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cantonment, industrial, government, transport and public/semi public sectors. The elimination method takes into account all the factors that need to be considered when calculating the raw roof space availability. Depending on the different sectors, the deductions vary accordingly. Listed below are the various types of deductions that are con-sidered based on different cities and their master plans.

Deductions from land area in the residential sector are:

· Discounting factor for trees roads and pedestrian paths, religious places, waste segregation facility, water tanks, STP, local three-wheeler and taxi stand - 20%

· Low-income household -10-30%

· Slum areas – 2-6%

· Discount for open spaces and balconies - 20%

· Average ground coverage factor with assumption from 70-80% - 20-30%

Deductions from land area in the commercial sector are:

· Discounting factor for small shops with very limited space for solar —10-20%

· Old shops and weak commercial buildings - 10- 20%

· Land for parking -16%

· Land for greenery - 16%

Deductions from land area in the industrial sector are:

· Discounting factor for industries with lesser load - 20%

· Industry roof space not suitable for solar (temporary material, uneven plain, weak structure) - 20%

· Ground coverage as per UPSDC for industrial plots - 50%

Deductions from land area in the government sector are:

· Discounting factor for trees roads and pedestrian paths - 10%

· Area for structures that might be old and unable to bear the weight of solar installations - 10%

· Land for parking - 16%

· Land for greenery - 16%

· Discount for balconies and open spaces - 20%

Deductions from land area in the transport sector are:

· Roof space not suitable for solar (non-concrete temporary material, uneven plain, weak structure) - 20%

· Ground coverage (80-90 %) - 10%-20%

Deductions from land area in the public and semi public sectors are:

· Discounting factor for trees roads and pedestrian paths - 20%

· Area for structures that might be old and unable to bear the weight of solar installa-tions - 10-20%

· Land for parking - 16%

· Land for greenery - 16%

· Discount for balconies and open spaces - 20%

Considering all the above deductions, the total raw roof space is estimated, and out of that Solar Suitability Factor of 40% is deducted. This final calculated area is the Solar Suitable Roof Space. This Solar Suitable Roof Space gives us the space required for the solar panels to be installed on the roof.

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64 Uttar Pradesh: Uncovering the Solar Rooftop Potential in Urban Cities

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