Download - Prabodhan | Prabodhan Conclave · 2017. 8. 29. · 4 Prabodhan 2014 The global growth picture became more complicated in 2014, with a less stark divide between emerging and developed

1© Global Counsel 2014

Prabodhan 2014

Participants’ briefing

2 Prabodhan 2014

S P O N S O R S O F P R A B O D H A N 2 0 1 4

Sponsors of Prabodhan 2014


Contents

Prabodhan 2014 programme 4

Setting the scene 6

Panel 1: the politics of growth 12

Panel 2: building the business environment for growth 16

In conversation: fuelling India’s growth 20

Panel 3: the politics of trade and investment 22

In conversation: look east, link west – where does Europe fit? 26

Panel 4: collaborating in global markets 28

Notes 32

4

Prabodhan 2

014

The global growth picture became more complicated in 2014, with a less stark

divide between emerging and developed countries. India is growing faster after a weak patch, concerns about China are rising, while Brazil is stagnating. The recovery looks solid but not spectacular in the US and strong in the UK. Elsewhere in Europe activity is subdued.

Policy positions are diverging, reflecting differences in outlook and constraints. India needs restrictive monetary policy to contain inflation. The Chinese are adjusting policy to achieve an orderly slowdown and rebalancing. The UK and US will tighten monetary policy soon, while the ECB explores options for loosening. Brazil’s room to cut rates is limited by high inflation.

There appears to have been a structural slowdown in growth across emerging

markets. The IMF has revised down forecasts and expects growth for emerging and developing Asia in coming years to be 3pp below the rate in 2010. The slowdown extends beyond China and India. The effect can be seen on commodity prices.

Political risk has risen, but so far the economic consequences have been

contained. Russian growth has slowed to near zero following the Ukraine crisis and sanctions. The security situation has deteriorated in the Middle East. Even so, oil prices have fallen, as Chinese demand growth has slowed. Questions over UK membership of the EU is another source of political risk.

China is arguably now the biggest risk to global growth. The financial system is large, opaque and an important means for economic control, but needs liberalising. For now a hard landing is a tail risk, given the policy space available. The consequences would be particularly severe for the many countries that rely on Chinese demand.

Setting the scene: global macro developments

Settin

g t

he s

cene:

glo

bal m

acro d

evelo

pm

ents

Prabodhan 2

014


Revisions to growth forecast for emerging and

developing Asia

Note: forecast growth relative to actual in 2010 as reported in IMF WEOs each October from 2010 to 2014

Brazil

US

Italy

France

China

India

Japan

Germany

Euro

Area

UK

-2.5%

2.5%

-2% 0% 4% 8%

ris

ing g

row

th

fallin

g g

row

th

higher growth

GDP growth

in 2014

GDP, PPP

Growth change on 2013

Growth outlook for major economies

Settin

g t

he s

cene: g

lobal m

acro d

evelo

pm

ents

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

successive IMF forecasts

Italy

Euro Area

France

Germany

UK

China

US

Japan

India

Brazil

2%

Consumer price inflation

Sources: IMF, Trading Economics

Source: IMF

Falling commodity prices

-30% -20% -10% 0%

Fuels

Food

Raw

materials

Metals

2011 to

2014

2014 to

2017

6

Prabodhan 2

014

If the recent increase in Indian growth is to be sustained the new government

will need to address weak investment. This has been blamed on the inability of the previous government to push through reforms to remove infrastructure bottlenecks and cut red tape. Expectations for the Modi government are high. GST reform is cited as an early test for the new government.

India’s twin deficits have narrowed, but remain a worry. The central government’s fiscal deficit narrowed in the last fiscal year, but the gains were off-set by widening deficits at state level. Further decentralisation of budgets may continue that trend. The current account deficit has fallen to 1.7% of GDP, helped by lower gold imports, a softening of commodity prices, and higher exports. But India’s significant external financing need remains a vulnerability.

The contours of Europe’s growth crisis are shifting, with less of a sharp divide

between the core and the periphery. The fastest growing economy in Q2 was Ireland, while Spain is also showing signs of recovery from a deep slump. Weak German growth may be due to temporary factors. Problems in France look more structural.

Risks in Europe have shifted from the creditworthiness of banks and

sovereigns to deflation and a protracted slowdown. The banks have improved their capital positions following ECB scrutiny of their balance sheets. Spreads on sovereign debt have narrowed. The ECB is under pressure to tackle falling inflation by loosening policy, but options are limited. Quantitative easing would be politically hard and may not have much effect. Germany opposes looser fiscal policy, even in those countries with fiscal space.

Setting the scene: the policy context

in India and Europe

Settin

g t

he s

cene:

the p

olicy c

ontext in India

and E

urope


-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Germany

France

Italy

Euro Area

Spain

Euro Area inflation rates over past 12-months

Settin

g t

he s

cene: t

he p

olic

y c

ontext in

India

and E

urope

Fiscal deficit (%GDP)

Source: Reserve Bank of India

Sources: Eurostat, Trading Economics

Annualised Q2 growth rates in Europe

> 4%

3%-4%

2%-3%

1%-2%

0%-1%

< 0%

Drivers of Indian GDP growth Current account deficit (% GDP)

-8 -6 -4 -2 0

2011-12

2012-13

2013-14

Central State

0

4

8

12

2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14

GDP

private

government

consumption

gross fixed capital formation

consumption-6 -4 -2 0

2011-12

2012-13

2013-14

8

Prabodhan 2

014

The BJP won 282 out of 543 seats in the May election to the Lok Sabha (the lower house). This is the first time a single party has won a majority since 1984. Even so, the new government faces significant political constraints. The BJP holds just 43 out of 245 seats in the Rajya Sabha (the upper house), to the Congress Party’s 68 seats. It will be many years before the BJP can hope to gain control as members serve six-year terms. At state level the BJP has only seven out of 29 chief ministers. This is a government with a resounding mandate, but which must still reach across party divides.

Expectations are high among business leaders, investors and the electorate.

Narendra Modi stood on a growth and development platform. But we are unlikely to see reform overnight. The early focus of government has been on building institutional capacity to deliver ‘maximum governance, minimum government’.

Voters in Europe are increasingly looking to the political margins. In May the elections to the European Parliament reflected this trend with gains at the extremes on both the right and left. What unites many of these parties is an anti-system, anti-globalisation, anti-market worldview. It is a conscious rejection of a lot of the political orthodoxy of the pre-crisis years and important planks of the EU’s response to the crisis, including austerity and the deepening of integration in the Eurozone.

A new European Commission, led by Jean-Claude Juncker, entered office at the start of this month. The priorities of the new Commission are: jobs and growth, energy, a trade deal with the US, and reform of monetary union. Juncker has also committed to finding an answer to the ‘British question’ concerning the UK’s continuing membership of the European Union.

Setting the scene: political transitions

in Delhi and Brussels

Sett

ing

the

scen

e: p

olit

ical

tra

nsit

ions

in D

elhi

and

Bru

ssel

s


Setting the scene: political transitions in Delhi and Brussels

Source: investing.com

Indian elections result Market impact of Indian elections

Europe’s shift from the mainstream to the margins

12.8% in 2009

24.6% in 2014

Share of votes and seats in European Parliament

elections captured by ‘the margins’

Anti immigration Eurosceptic

Anti globalisation

Anti capitalism

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

Jan Jan Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

BSA Sensex

(lhs)

Eurostoxx 50

(rhs)

Elections

BJP Others INC

2014

2009

21 seat majority

10

Prabodhan 2

014

Prime Minister Modi has a huge electoral mandate, but needs to work with

opposition parties in the upper house and in the states. The Rajya Sabha plays an important role in the passing of legislation as the failure to pass the Insurance Bill in the first parliamentary session shows. The government needs to work with the states both to implement structural reforms and if it is to meet fiscal targets.

Reform of the Goods and Services Tax will provide an early test of the

government’s ability to implement major reforms. This requires constitutional change and so the government will need the cooperation of the upper house and the states. The Congress Party supported this reform when in government so the prospects are good, but regional parties will also play a critical role.

In Europe, many countries have made significant progress in cutting their fiscal deficits, but austerity fatigue and weak growth is making this harder. A majority of Europeans question whether austerity is working, with predictable differences across national lines. Anti-austerity sentiment is growing in the European Parliament. In the countries where growth is weakest policymakers are looking for flexibility in the fiscal rules and ways to stimulate growth without overtly breaking the rules. The new European Commission says it will prioritise jobs and growth and wants to increase investment, but it is unclear how this will be financed.

There is limited policy space – and political space - in Europe for looser monetary policy to support growth and raise inflation closer to target. The ECB has already deployed a range of unorthodox measures, including buying private sector assets. But the ECB has so far held back from buying sovereign debt in the face of political opposition and likely legal action.

Panel 1: the politics of growth

Panel 1:

the p

olitic

s o

f grow

th


Panel 1

: the p

olit

ics o

f grow

th

NDA

BJP

UPA

INC

AAP OTHERS AITCAIADMK

Distribution of powerLok Sabha (outer), Rajya Sabha (mid) and by Chief Minister (inner)

Source: Pew Research Center, March 2014, “Indians Reflect on their Country & the World”

65%

82%

83%

83%

85%

88%

89%

Political deadlock

Inequality

Corrupt businesspeople

Corrupt officials

Employmentopportunities

Terrorism

Rising Prices

India’s biggest problems

% respondents

5

34

51

10

Yes

Yes, but it takes time

No

Don't know

Is austerity working in Europe?

% respondents

Source: Gallup Survey, September 2013Source: Global Counsel analysis

MEP views by policy platform

Index of intensity of views based on party manifestos

1.3

1.7

1.4

2.1

2.7

1.7

1.8

2

2.7

3.2

Anti-big business

Anti-migrant

Anti-globalisation

Eurosceptic

Anti-austerity

2014

2009

12

Prabodhan 2

014

Panel 1:

the p

olitic

s o

f grow

th

Source: IMF

Source: Indian National Planning Commission

Fiscal deficits in India% of GDP

0

2

4

6

8

10

Cental government State government Combined

Fiscal deficits in the Eurozone% of GDP

-4

0

4

8

12

2014 net borrowing

2012 net borrowing

structural deficit


Panel 1: the politics of growth

Areas for discussion

How will politics shape the growth agendas in Europe and India?

An Indian inflection: six months on from the India’s general elections, Prabodhan will take stock of the progress and prospects for the Indian government and the economic reform agenda. The panel will consider the political dynamics between the government, the Parliament and across the states and the implications for the growth agenda.

The political outlook in Europe: since the financial crisis, populist parties have taken electoral support from both the centre right and centre left, motivated by a sense that mainstream parties have failed the public. The panel will consider the direction of European politics and how political dynamics will shape the outlook of the new European Commission and Parliament and their growth policies.

Panel 1

: the p

olit

ics o

f grow

th

14

Prabodhan 2

014

India and Europe are targeting industrialisation and re-industrialisation. Modi has launched his ‘Make in India’ campaign, but in 21 of India’s 29 states services have grown faster than manufacturing over the last decade. Europe wants 20% of GDP from manufacturing by 2020, up from 14% today. However, with sluggish global demand and a new wave of low cost manufacturers emerging across Asia, India faces headwinds, while questions are being asked about whether Europe’s target makes sense.

Both India and Europe face challenges completing their single markets. In India’s case interstate trade is limited by legal, regulatory and infrastructure barriers. A unified Goods and Services Tax remains a ‘holy grail’ for Indian and inward investors. In Europe, attention is turning once again to the internal markets in services, capital markets and energy, but political barriers remain.

Europe has ambitions to complete the digital single market. This was identified by President Juncker as a priority for the Commission. With Europe adding 50 million online shoppers in the last five years the potential is clear, but barriers remain in telecoms regulation, copyright law and the national approach to competition law. It will be India, however, which sees the fastest growth in the online population among the world’s major economic areas.

By 2050 half of India’s population will live in urban areas, creating half a

billion new city dwellers – equivalent to the European population. Meeting their needs will mean restarting fixed investment and private-public partnerships to address huge infrastructure deficits in housing, mass transit, sanitation and water. Maintaining per capita power consumption even at today’s level will require adding the equivalent of Spain’s annual electricity generation.

Panel 2: the business environment for growth

Panel 2:

the b

usin

ess e

nvir

onm

ent f

or g

row

th


Panel 2

: the b

usin

ess e

nvir

onm

ent fo

r g

row

th

Average annual growth of manufacturing

2005/06 to 2013/14 Manufacturing share

% of GDP

Sources: Eurostat, World Bank, Indian National Planning Commission

Gross fixed capital formation in India% GDP

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

EU India

Gross fixed capital formation % annual growth

-5.4%

-1.8%

-0.7%

2.1%

4.5%

13.5%

Assam

West Bengal

Rajasthan

Gujarat

Bihar

Meghalaya

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Public SectorPrivate Sector

15%

19%

13%14%

India EU

2000 2013

2000 2013

16

Prabodhan 2

014Pan

el 2:

the b

usin

ess e

nvir

onm

ent f

or g

row

th

The growth of European e-commerce

Additional annual power generation

required by 2050 in India

(TWh)

Sources: UNPD, McKinsey, World Bank WDI, Global Counsel calculations

2010 373mn

2050 814mn

2030 583mn

India’s urban population

4953

1381

272

Half EU consumption

Double per cap

Same per capconsumption

2010 373mn

Online population (millions)

480370

245120 102

583402

279 330105

China EU US India Japan

2011 2015

0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%

0%

40%

80%

UK Germany Netherlands France EU Italy

% purchasing online in previous 3m (LH) CAGR (2009-2013) (RH)

Spain

Japan

China

Equivalent to annual consumption of:


Panel 2: the business environment for growth


What are key steps that must be taken to build “single markets” in Europe and India? What

barriers can most easily be removed to encourage business investment and job creation?

Rebalancing growth: The Indian government has launched its Make in India campaign. European policy makers have committed to revive manufacturing. In both locations, the scale opportunities from operating in genuinely single markets are essential for competitiveness. Prabodhan will consider the obstacles that must be overcome and the opportunities for partnership between India and Europe.

Source of future growth: Urbanisation and the development of smart cities are creating new economic opportunities. Digital connectivity is reshaping the provision of services in cities and beyond. Prabodhan will consider the challenges this presents to Indian and European policymakers and how they can learn from each other.

Panel 2

: the b

usin

ess e

nvir

onm

ent fo

r g

row

th

18

Prabodhan 2

014

India needs to mobilise long-term finance and secure stable energy supplies to fuel high growth rates. Long-term finance is essential for infrastructure investment on the required scale, in energy and elsewhere. Business will be uncompetitive without affordable energy and reliable power generation.

Tighter monetary and fiscal policy may constrain infrastructure spending in the short term, but create a more sustainable basis for investment over the longer

term. A combination of budget pressures and tighter bank credit have contributed to a large public and private financing gap for infrastructure investment.

Energy market reform is critical for attracting private capital into much

needed energy infrastructure. The falling global price of oil may create space to undertake such reform, including through the rationalisation of energy subsidies. This would reduce the fiscal deficit and improve incentives for private capital investment. Reform in this area is, however, politically sensitive.

Financial sector innovation and deepening is needed to support infrastructure

spending and other types of long-term investment. Monetary stability is a precondition. The creation of new asset classes such Infrastructure Investment Trusts are designed to provide greater financing flexibility.

In conversation: fuelling India’s growth

In c

onversatio

n:

fuellin

g India

’s g

row

th


In c

onversatio

n: fu

ellin

g In

dia

’s g

row

th

Monetary policy and credit growth

Sources: India’s Planning Commission, World Bank, IMF, and RBI

Gross fixed capital formationAnnual growth

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012

public sector

private sector

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012

Private sector credit growth In ation

Private sector share of financing Five year plan

Sources of infrastructure financingFive year plan

25%

11%

16%

33%

15%Private infrastruc-

ture companies

Private sector

borrowing

Private borrowing

Public infrastructure

companies

State budget

0%

3%

19%

33%

48%

48%

48%

80%

87%

88%

92%

Irrigation

Sanitation

Raiways

Roads

Total

Oil & Gas

Electricity

Airports

Ports

ICT

2012-17

2006-11

Renewables

20

Prabodhan 2

014

The limited progress in WTO negotiations has led both the EU and India

to focus on bilateral trade agreements. Since 2006, the EU has launched negotiations with the United States, Japan, Canada and major trade partners in Latin America and South East Asia. With the conclusion of the Canada negotiations, the priorities for the new EU trade commissioner are the US and Japan.

In September the Indian government announced a shift in policy to prioritise

trade deals with emerging economies. India is exploring FTAs with several Latin America countries, members of the Eurasian Economic Union, Turkey and Egypt. While the WTO bound tariff is typically high in these regions, the motivation is very often political as much as economic. However, these FTAs may have limited impact on trade.

After seven years of negotiations, the EU-India FTA negotiations have stalled and the prospects for completion are dim. There appears to be a fundamental misalignment between the goals of the two parties, especially as the EU’s aim of reducing behind-the-border barriers clashes with Delhi’s traditional view of trade as a complement to industrial policy. India’s demands on trade in services and temporary work visas in ICT services also clashes with the EU growing unease about outsourcing and immigration.

European policymakers are still trying to understand how far the Modi

government will go to liberalise investment. The government’s announcement of proposals to cut red tape and raise foreign equity caps in the insurance, defence and railway sectors suggest an important policy shift from the previous administration. These measures still require the approval of the Indian parliament however. It is as yet unclear whether they will be extended to other sectors.

Panel 3: The politics of trade and investment

Them

e 3

: T

he p

olitic

s o

f trade a

nd investm

ent


Them

e 3

: The p

olit

ics o

f trade a

nd in

vestm

ent

India’s goods export destination Shares of EU trade

% of total

EU exports to India

2013India exports to EU

Germany 25%

Belgium 23%

UK 16%

Italy 8%

France 7%

Other 20%

Share of EU exports to India

Sources: UNCTAD, Eurostat

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

India GDP % growth China trade share

India trade share

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013

EU US ROW Asia Africa LatAm

Fuels6%

Food 3%

Precious stones, gold

2%

Other7%

Chemicals5%

Machinery6%

Iron and steel

2%

Textiles, clothing

7%Services

12%

Services

13%

Iron, steel1%

Machinery 13%

Chemicals 4%

Other 7%

Precious stones, gold

8%

22

Prabodhan 2

014The

me 3

: T

he p

olitic

s o

f trade a

nd investm

ent

Sources: WTO, UNCTAD, RBI and World Bank

Barriers to foreign establishment (colour coded) and foreign equity caps (%)

*Excluding legal services

Telecom Retail Banking Life Insurance Prof. Services

India 74 51 74 26 0

EU 100 100 100 100 100*

China 49 100 100 50 100

Open Minor Barriers Major barriers Limited scope Closed

Applied and bound tariffs (%)

020406080

India Brazil Argentina Russia China Indonesia Kenya EU

Average applied Ag. Applied Merchandise applied

Average bound Ag. bound Merchandise bound

113 113 10095

FDI source2000-14

Inward foreign direct investment in India

$bn

0

50

100

150

200

250

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

stocksows Mauritius

37%

Singapore11%

UK10%Japan

7%

US6%

Others29%


Panel 3: The politics of trade and investment


How is the political environment shaping the trade and investment policies of the new Indian

Government, the European Commission and European member states? What are the implications

and opportunities for business?

The role and focus of free trade agreements: Prabodhan will evaluate the priorities for Europe and India’s trade policy, the role free trade agreements might play and whether trade tools are a valuable part of securing new growth opportunities for businesses in global supply chains.

The global trade system: Following the failure to progress a global trade agreement through the WTO, the panel will consider if and how Europe and India can work together in the global trading system or whether the emerging focus on regional agreements signals the end of the multilateral system.

Them

e 3

: The p

olit

ics o

f trade a

nd in

vestm

ent

24

Prabodhan 2

014

Prime Minister’s Modi is putting the region first in foreign policy. He has already visited Nepal and Bhutan, and taken tentative steps towards discussions with Pakistan and the new Afghanistan government. He is due to attend the SAARC summit later this month and the ASEAN summit in Myanmar in the run up to the G20.

The core of India’s foreign policy is, however, to ‘look east’. Modi has focussed on the BRICS first, with the Summit in Brazil his first major multilateral engagement. Modi met his counterparts in China and Japan before visiting the United States, indicating the importance he attaches to East Asia. He has yet to visit Europe as Prime Minister or to receive a head of government from Europe.

Public opinion mirrors India’s international priorities. Indians worry about Islamic extremism, Pakistan’s stability and Chinese power. Defence spending in China has grown by 170% since 2004, four times as fast as in India. Many Indians view China unfavourably. India’s defence spending is, however, growing faster than Europe’s.

We have yet to see what the ‘link west’ dimension to India’s foreign policy

means and where Europe fits in. There are tensions in policy between India and the EU. India’s friendship with Russia remains strong, with Indians viewing Russia more favourably than the EU. Oil imports from Iran have slowed, but remain large, while Europe has joined the US in imposing an embargo. The EU and India have conflicting objectives in many institutions, such as the WTO.

In conversation: look east, link west – where

does Europe fit?

In c

onve

rsat

ion:

look

eas

t, li

nk w

est

– w

here

doe

s Eu

rope

fit?


In conversation: look east, link west – w

here does Europe fit?

Perceived threats to India

Sources: SIPRI Military Expenditure Database, Pew Research Center

Defence spending in 2013

China 170%

India 45%

US 12%

Russia 11%

Europe 8%

Growth in defence spending

2004 to 2013

US power

Iran's nuclear program

Int'l financial instability

Climate change

Chinese power

Pakistan instability

Islamic extremism

Major threat (%) Minor threat (%) Don't know No threat (%)

Indian perceptions of others unfavourable favourable

Pakistan

China

Iran

EU

Russia

US +41+22

+9-5

-6

-52

net

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

USA

Euro

pe

China

Russia

Fra

nce

UK

Germ

any

Japan

India

Italy

Pakista

n

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Military expenditure, 2013 (US$bn) Percentage of GDP, 2013

26

Prabodhan 2

014

China’s increasing productivity brings opportunities and risks as Chinese

manufacturing wages have tripled in the last decade. The World Bank estimates that 80 million manufacturing jobs could leave China. For India, its young population, engineering skills and entrepreneurial tradition make it a contender to lead the next wave of low-cost manufacturing. But India faces competition from the likes of Vietnam and Bangladesh. For Europe, China’s rising productivity may be the sign of competition to come in high value sectors.

The corollary of rising wages is a growing consumer market which could offer enormous opportunities for Indian and European corporates. However, there remains a long way to go on market access, and concerns remain about the treatment of foreign corporates – areas where Indian and European companies’ interests are aligned.

Despite deep and longstanding ties to Africa, both Europe and India have failed to capitalise fully on the last decade of growth. Since 2000, Chinese trade with Africa has increased almost twenty-fold, Indian nine-fold, and European only three-fold. Trade remains concentrated in primary commodities, particularly oil. For Indian corporates there are opportunities to leverage experience gained in their own domestic market. Indian and European businesses have, however, struggled to compete against Chinese SOEs backed by government financial support.

There are questions about the appetite in both India and Europe to look

abroad. Since the financial crisis Indian and European outward FDI flows have been in decline. Indian and European corporates may be missing out on opportunities abroad as downbeat business sentiment impacts on investment decisions.

Panel 4: collaborating in global markets

Panel 4:

collaboratin

g in g

lobal m

arkets


Panel 4

: colla

boratin

g in

glo

bal m

arkets

Average Chinese manufacturing wage

RMB per annumChinese urban households by income

millions

Outward foreign direct investment flows $ millions

Sources: National Statistics Bureau China, McKinsey Insights China, UNCTAD

53

23 23

93

185

118

14167

5

20

2000 2010 2020E

High [$34,000]

Middle [$16,000 to $34,000]

Low [$6,000 to $16,000]

Poor [

28

Prabodhan 2

014

Panel 4:

collaboratin

g in g

lobal m

arkets

Source: UNCTAD

EU $432bn

China $207bn

India $72bn

Total trade with Africa

2013Trade with Africa by sector

2013, $ billions

Growth in trade with Africa

Index, 2000=100

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012

EU

India

China

25.7%

18.7%

9.3%

CAGR

52

241

21

191

India EU

Primary

commodities

Other



What are the opportunities for collaboration in the face of global competition from China?

Responding to the China challenge: The rebalancing of China’s growth model in the coming years will have profound implications for European and Indian business prospects in global markets, and in China itself. Prabodhan will consider the implications and risks as China adjusts to a “new normal.”

Collaboration in third markets: Prabodhan will consider the sources of European and Indian competitive advantage in global markets – for example in Africa - and assess the opportunities for collaboration between Indian and European businesses.

Panel 4: collaborating in global markets

Panel 4

: colla

boratin

g in

glo

bal m

arkets

30 Prabodhan 2014

Notes

Notes


Notes

32 Prabodhan 2014

Notes


Notes

Although Global Counsel makes every attempt to obtain information from sources that we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy, completeness or fairness. Unless we have good reason not to do so, Global Counsel has assumed without independent verification, the accuracy of all information available from official public sources. No representation, warranty or undertaking, express or implied, is or will be given by Global Counsel or its members, employees and/or agents as to or in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained herein (or otherwise provided by Global Counsel) or as to the reasonableness of any assumption contained herein. Forecasts contained herein (or otherwise provided by Global Counsel) are provisional and subject to change. Nothing contained herein (or otherwise provided by Global Counsel) is, or shall be relied upon as, a promise or representation as to the past or future. Any case studies and examples herein (or otherwise provided by Global Counsel) are intended for illustrative purposes only. This information discusses general industry or sector trends, general market activity and other broad eco-nomic, market or political conditions. It is not research or investment advice. This document has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation, invitation or an offer by Global Counsel or any of its members, employees or agents to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. No investment, divestment or other financial decisions or actions should be based on the information contained herein (or otherwise provided by Global Counsel). Global Counsel is not liable for any action undertaken on the basis of the information contained herein. No part of this material may be reproduced without Global Counsel’s consent.

Global Counsel

5 Welbeck Street, London, W1G 9YQT: +44 [0]203 667 6500 E: [email protected]: www.global-counsel.co.uk

Front Cover Image: Gurgaon Walkway © amlanmathur

Download - Prabodhan | Prabodhan Conclave · 2017. 8. 29. · 4 Prabodhan 2014 The global growth picture became more complicated in 2014, with a less stark divide between emerging and developed

Top Related