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1© Global Counsel 2014
Prabodhan 2014
Participants’ briefing
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2 Prabodhan 2014
S P O N S O R S O F P R A B O D H A N 2 0 1 4
Sponsors of Prabodhan 2014
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3© Global Counsel 2014
Contents
Prabodhan 2014 programme 4
Setting the scene 6
Panel 1: the politics of growth 12
Panel 2: building the business environment for growth 16
In conversation: fuelling India’s growth 20
Panel 3: the politics of trade and investment 22
In conversation: look east, link west – where does Europe fit? 26
Panel 4: collaborating in global markets 28
Notes 32
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4
Prabodhan 2
014
The global growth picture became more complicated in 2014, with a less stark
divide between emerging and developed countries. India is growing faster after a weak patch, concerns about China are rising, while Brazil is stagnating. The recovery looks solid but not spectacular in the US and strong in the UK. Elsewhere in Europe activity is subdued.
Policy positions are diverging, reflecting differences in outlook and constraints. India needs restrictive monetary policy to contain inflation. The Chinese are adjusting policy to achieve an orderly slowdown and rebalancing. The UK and US will tighten monetary policy soon, while the ECB explores options for loosening. Brazil’s room to cut rates is limited by high inflation.
There appears to have been a structural slowdown in growth across emerging
markets. The IMF has revised down forecasts and expects growth for emerging and developing Asia in coming years to be 3pp below the rate in 2010. The slowdown extends beyond China and India. The effect can be seen on commodity prices.
Political risk has risen, but so far the economic consequences have been
contained. Russian growth has slowed to near zero following the Ukraine crisis and sanctions. The security situation has deteriorated in the Middle East. Even so, oil prices have fallen, as Chinese demand growth has slowed. Questions over UK membership of the EU is another source of political risk.
China is arguably now the biggest risk to global growth. The financial system is large, opaque and an important means for economic control, but needs liberalising. For now a hard landing is a tail risk, given the policy space available. The consequences would be particularly severe for the many countries that rely on Chinese demand.
Setting the scene: global macro developments
Settin
g t
he s
cene:
glo
bal m
acro d
evelo
pm
ents
Prabodhan 2
014
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5© Global Counsel 2014
Revisions to growth forecast for emerging and
developing Asia
Note: forecast growth relative to actual in 2010 as reported in IMF WEOs each October from 2010 to 2014
Brazil
US
Italy
France
China
India
Japan
Germany
Euro
Area
UK
-2.5%
2.5%
-2% 0% 4% 8%
ris
ing g
row
th
fallin
g g
row
th
higher growth
GDP growth
in 2014
GDP, PPP
Growth change on 2013
Growth outlook for major economies
Settin
g t
he s
cene: g
lobal m
acro d
evelo
pm
ents
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
successive IMF forecasts
Italy
Euro Area
France
Germany
UK
China
US
Japan
India
Brazil
2%
Consumer price inflation
Sources: IMF, Trading Economics
Source: IMF
Falling commodity prices
-30% -20% -10% 0%
Fuels
Food
Raw
materials
Metals
2011 to
2014
2014 to
2017
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6
Prabodhan 2
014
If the recent increase in Indian growth is to be sustained the new government
will need to address weak investment. This has been blamed on the inability of the previous government to push through reforms to remove infrastructure bottlenecks and cut red tape. Expectations for the Modi government are high. GST reform is cited as an early test for the new government.
India’s twin deficits have narrowed, but remain a worry. The central government’s fiscal deficit narrowed in the last fiscal year, but the gains were off-set by widening deficits at state level. Further decentralisation of budgets may continue that trend. The current account deficit has fallen to 1.7% of GDP, helped by lower gold imports, a softening of commodity prices, and higher exports. But India’s significant external financing need remains a vulnerability.
The contours of Europe’s growth crisis are shifting, with less of a sharp divide
between the core and the periphery. The fastest growing economy in Q2 was Ireland, while Spain is also showing signs of recovery from a deep slump. Weak German growth may be due to temporary factors. Problems in France look more structural.
Risks in Europe have shifted from the creditworthiness of banks and
sovereigns to deflation and a protracted slowdown. The banks have improved their capital positions following ECB scrutiny of their balance sheets. Spreads on sovereign debt have narrowed. The ECB is under pressure to tackle falling inflation by loosening policy, but options are limited. Quantitative easing would be politically hard and may not have much effect. Germany opposes looser fiscal policy, even in those countries with fiscal space.
Setting the scene: the policy context
in India and Europe
Settin
g t
he s
cene:
the p
olicy c
ontext in India
and E
urope
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7© Global Counsel 2014
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Germany
France
Italy
Euro Area
Spain
Euro Area inflation rates over past 12-months
Settin
g t
he s
cene: t
he p
olic
y c
ontext in
India
and E
urope
Fiscal deficit (%GDP)
Source: Reserve Bank of India
Sources: Eurostat, Trading Economics
Annualised Q2 growth rates in Europe
> 4%
3%-4%
2%-3%
1%-2%
0%-1%
< 0%
Drivers of Indian GDP growth Current account deficit (% GDP)
-8 -6 -4 -2 0
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
Central State
0
4
8
12
2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14
GDP
private
government
consumption
gross fixed capital formation
consumption-6 -4 -2 0
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
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8
Prabodhan 2
014
The BJP won 282 out of 543 seats in the May election to the Lok Sabha (the lower house). This is the first time a single party has won a majority since 1984. Even so, the new government faces significant political constraints. The BJP holds just 43 out of 245 seats in the Rajya Sabha (the upper house), to the Congress Party’s 68 seats. It will be many years before the BJP can hope to gain control as members serve six-year terms. At state level the BJP has only seven out of 29 chief ministers. This is a government with a resounding mandate, but which must still reach across party divides.
Expectations are high among business leaders, investors and the electorate.
Narendra Modi stood on a growth and development platform. But we are unlikely to see reform overnight. The early focus of government has been on building institutional capacity to deliver ‘maximum governance, minimum government’.
Voters in Europe are increasingly looking to the political margins. In May the elections to the European Parliament reflected this trend with gains at the extremes on both the right and left. What unites many of these parties is an anti-system, anti-globalisation, anti-market worldview. It is a conscious rejection of a lot of the political orthodoxy of the pre-crisis years and important planks of the EU’s response to the crisis, including austerity and the deepening of integration in the Eurozone.
A new European Commission, led by Jean-Claude Juncker, entered office at the start of this month. The priorities of the new Commission are: jobs and growth, energy, a trade deal with the US, and reform of monetary union. Juncker has also committed to finding an answer to the ‘British question’ concerning the UK’s continuing membership of the European Union.
Setting the scene: political transitions
in Delhi and Brussels
Sett
ing
the
scen
e: p
olit
ical
tra
nsit
ions
in D
elhi
and
Bru
ssel
s
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9© Global Counsel 2014
Setting the scene: political transitions in Delhi and Brussels
Source: investing.com
Indian elections result Market impact of Indian elections
Europe’s shift from the mainstream to the margins
12.8% in 2009
24.6% in 2014
Share of votes and seats in European Parliament
elections captured by ‘the margins’
Anti immigration Eurosceptic
Anti globalisation
Anti capitalism
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Jan Jan Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
BSA Sensex
(lhs)
Eurostoxx 50
(rhs)
Elections
BJP Others INC
2014
2009
21 seat majority
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10
Prabodhan 2
014
Prime Minister Modi has a huge electoral mandate, but needs to work with
opposition parties in the upper house and in the states. The Rajya Sabha plays an important role in the passing of legislation as the failure to pass the Insurance Bill in the first parliamentary session shows. The government needs to work with the states both to implement structural reforms and if it is to meet fiscal targets.
Reform of the Goods and Services Tax will provide an early test of the
government’s ability to implement major reforms. This requires constitutional change and so the government will need the cooperation of the upper house and the states. The Congress Party supported this reform when in government so the prospects are good, but regional parties will also play a critical role.
In Europe, many countries have made significant progress in cutting their fiscal deficits, but austerity fatigue and weak growth is making this harder. A majority of Europeans question whether austerity is working, with predictable differences across national lines. Anti-austerity sentiment is growing in the European Parliament. In the countries where growth is weakest policymakers are looking for flexibility in the fiscal rules and ways to stimulate growth without overtly breaking the rules. The new European Commission says it will prioritise jobs and growth and wants to increase investment, but it is unclear how this will be financed.
There is limited policy space – and political space - in Europe for looser monetary policy to support growth and raise inflation closer to target. The ECB has already deployed a range of unorthodox measures, including buying private sector assets. But the ECB has so far held back from buying sovereign debt in the face of political opposition and likely legal action.
Panel 1: the politics of growth
Panel 1:
the p
olitic
s o
f grow
th
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11© Global Counsel 2014
Panel 1
: the p
olit
ics o
f grow
th
NDA
BJP
UPA
INC
AAP OTHERS AITCAIADMK
Distribution of powerLok Sabha (outer), Rajya Sabha (mid) and by Chief Minister (inner)
Source: Pew Research Center, March 2014, “Indians Reflect on their Country & the World”
65%
82%
83%
83%
85%
88%
89%
Political deadlock
Inequality
Corrupt businesspeople
Corrupt officials
Employmentopportunities
Terrorism
Rising Prices
India’s biggest problems
% respondents
5
34
51
10
Yes
Yes, but it takes time
No
Don't know
Is austerity working in Europe?
% respondents
Source: Gallup Survey, September 2013Source: Global Counsel analysis
MEP views by policy platform
Index of intensity of views based on party manifestos
1.3
1.7
1.4
2.1
2.7
1.7
1.8
2
2.7
3.2
Anti-big business
Anti-migrant
Anti-globalisation
Eurosceptic
Anti-austerity
2014
2009
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12
Prabodhan 2
014
Panel 1:
the p
olitic
s o
f grow
th
Source: IMF
Source: Indian National Planning Commission
Fiscal deficits in India% of GDP
0
2
4
6
8
10
Cental government State government Combined
Fiscal deficits in the Eurozone% of GDP
-4
0
4
8
12
2014 net borrowing
2012 net borrowing
structural deficit
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13© Global Counsel 2014
Panel 1: the politics of growth
Areas for discussion
How will politics shape the growth agendas in Europe and India?
An Indian inflection: six months on from the India’s general elections, Prabodhan will take stock of the progress and prospects for the Indian government and the economic reform agenda. The panel will consider the political dynamics between the government, the Parliament and across the states and the implications for the growth agenda.
The political outlook in Europe: since the financial crisis, populist parties have taken electoral support from both the centre right and centre left, motivated by a sense that mainstream parties have failed the public. The panel will consider the direction of European politics and how political dynamics will shape the outlook of the new European Commission and Parliament and their growth policies.
Panel 1
: the p
olit
ics o
f grow
th
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14
Prabodhan 2
014
India and Europe are targeting industrialisation and re-industrialisation. Modi has launched his ‘Make in India’ campaign, but in 21 of India’s 29 states services have grown faster than manufacturing over the last decade. Europe wants 20% of GDP from manufacturing by 2020, up from 14% today. However, with sluggish global demand and a new wave of low cost manufacturers emerging across Asia, India faces headwinds, while questions are being asked about whether Europe’s target makes sense.
Both India and Europe face challenges completing their single markets. In India’s case interstate trade is limited by legal, regulatory and infrastructure barriers. A unified Goods and Services Tax remains a ‘holy grail’ for Indian and inward investors. In Europe, attention is turning once again to the internal markets in services, capital markets and energy, but political barriers remain.
Europe has ambitions to complete the digital single market. This was identified by President Juncker as a priority for the Commission. With Europe adding 50 million online shoppers in the last five years the potential is clear, but barriers remain in telecoms regulation, copyright law and the national approach to competition law. It will be India, however, which sees the fastest growth in the online population among the world’s major economic areas.
By 2050 half of India’s population will live in urban areas, creating half a
billion new city dwellers – equivalent to the European population. Meeting their needs will mean restarting fixed investment and private-public partnerships to address huge infrastructure deficits in housing, mass transit, sanitation and water. Maintaining per capita power consumption even at today’s level will require adding the equivalent of Spain’s annual electricity generation.
Panel 2: the business environment for growth
Panel 2:
the b
usin
ess e
nvir
onm
ent f
or g
row
th
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15© Global Counsel 2014
Panel 2
: the b
usin
ess e
nvir
onm
ent fo
r g
row
th
Average annual growth of manufacturing
2005/06 to 2013/14 Manufacturing share
% of GDP
Sources: Eurostat, World Bank, Indian National Planning Commission
Gross fixed capital formation in India% GDP
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
EU India
Gross fixed capital formation % annual growth
-5.4%
-1.8%
-0.7%
2.1%
4.5%
13.5%
Assam
West Bengal
Rajasthan
Gujarat
Bihar
Meghalaya
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Public SectorPrivate Sector
15%
19%
13%14%
India EU
2000 2013
2000 2013
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16
Prabodhan 2
014Pan
el 2:
the b
usin
ess e
nvir
onm
ent f
or g
row
th
The growth of European e-commerce
Additional annual power generation
required by 2050 in India
(TWh)
Sources: UNPD, McKinsey, World Bank WDI, Global Counsel calculations
2010 373mn
2050 814mn
2030 583mn
India’s urban population
4953
1381
272
Half EU consumption
Double per cap
Same per capconsumption
2010 373mn
Online population (millions)
480370
245120 102
583402
279 330105
China EU US India Japan
2011 2015
0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%
0%
40%
80%
UK Germany Netherlands France EU Italy
% purchasing online in previous 3m (LH) CAGR (2009-2013) (RH)
Spain
Japan
China
Equivalent to annual consumption of:
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17© Global Counsel 2014
Panel 2: the business environment for growth
Areas for discussion
What are key steps that must be taken to build “single markets” in Europe and India? What
barriers can most easily be removed to encourage business investment and job creation?
Rebalancing growth: The Indian government has launched its Make in India campaign. European policy makers have committed to revive manufacturing. In both locations, the scale opportunities from operating in genuinely single markets are essential for competitiveness. Prabodhan will consider the obstacles that must be overcome and the opportunities for partnership between India and Europe.
Source of future growth: Urbanisation and the development of smart cities are creating new economic opportunities. Digital connectivity is reshaping the provision of services in cities and beyond. Prabodhan will consider the challenges this presents to Indian and European policymakers and how they can learn from each other.
Panel 2
: the b
usin
ess e
nvir
onm
ent fo
r g
row
th
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18
Prabodhan 2
014
India needs to mobilise long-term finance and secure stable energy supplies to fuel high growth rates. Long-term finance is essential for infrastructure investment on the required scale, in energy and elsewhere. Business will be uncompetitive without affordable energy and reliable power generation.
Tighter monetary and fiscal policy may constrain infrastructure spending in the short term, but create a more sustainable basis for investment over the longer
term. A combination of budget pressures and tighter bank credit have contributed to a large public and private financing gap for infrastructure investment.
Energy market reform is critical for attracting private capital into much
needed energy infrastructure. The falling global price of oil may create space to undertake such reform, including through the rationalisation of energy subsidies. This would reduce the fiscal deficit and improve incentives for private capital investment. Reform in this area is, however, politically sensitive.
Financial sector innovation and deepening is needed to support infrastructure
spending and other types of long-term investment. Monetary stability is a precondition. The creation of new asset classes such Infrastructure Investment Trusts are designed to provide greater financing flexibility.
In conversation: fuelling India’s growth
In c
onversatio
n:
fuellin
g India
’s g
row
th
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19© Global Counsel 2014
In c
onversatio
n: fu
ellin
g In
dia
’s g
row
th
Monetary policy and credit growth
Sources: India’s Planning Commission, World Bank, IMF, and RBI
Gross fixed capital formationAnnual growth
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012
public sector
private sector
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012
Private sector credit growth In ation
Private sector share of financing Five year plan
Sources of infrastructure financingFive year plan
25%
11%
16%
33%
15%Private infrastruc-
ture companies
Private sector
borrowing
Private borrowing
Public infrastructure
companies
State budget
0%
3%
19%
33%
48%
48%
48%
80%
87%
88%
92%
Irrigation
Sanitation
Raiways
Roads
Total
Oil & Gas
Electricity
Airports
Ports
ICT
2012-17
2006-11
Renewables
-
20
Prabodhan 2
014
The limited progress in WTO negotiations has led both the EU and India
to focus on bilateral trade agreements. Since 2006, the EU has launched negotiations with the United States, Japan, Canada and major trade partners in Latin America and South East Asia. With the conclusion of the Canada negotiations, the priorities for the new EU trade commissioner are the US and Japan.
In September the Indian government announced a shift in policy to prioritise
trade deals with emerging economies. India is exploring FTAs with several Latin America countries, members of the Eurasian Economic Union, Turkey and Egypt. While the WTO bound tariff is typically high in these regions, the motivation is very often political as much as economic. However, these FTAs may have limited impact on trade.
After seven years of negotiations, the EU-India FTA negotiations have stalled and the prospects for completion are dim. There appears to be a fundamental misalignment between the goals of the two parties, especially as the EU’s aim of reducing behind-the-border barriers clashes with Delhi’s traditional view of trade as a complement to industrial policy. India’s demands on trade in services and temporary work visas in ICT services also clashes with the EU growing unease about outsourcing and immigration.
European policymakers are still trying to understand how far the Modi
government will go to liberalise investment. The government’s announcement of proposals to cut red tape and raise foreign equity caps in the insurance, defence and railway sectors suggest an important policy shift from the previous administration. These measures still require the approval of the Indian parliament however. It is as yet unclear whether they will be extended to other sectors.
Panel 3: The politics of trade and investment
Them
e 3
: T
he p
olitic
s o
f trade a
nd investm
ent
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21© Global Counsel 2014
Them
e 3
: The p
olit
ics o
f trade a
nd in
vestm
ent
India’s goods export destination Shares of EU trade
% of total
EU exports to India
2013India exports to EU
Germany 25%
Belgium 23%
UK 16%
Italy 8%
France 7%
Other 20%
Share of EU exports to India
Sources: UNCTAD, Eurostat
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
India GDP % growth China trade share
India trade share
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013
EU US ROW Asia Africa LatAm
Fuels6%
Food 3%
Precious stones, gold
2%
Other7%
Chemicals5%
Machinery6%
Iron and steel
2%
Textiles, clothing
7%Services
12%
Services
13%
Iron, steel1%
Machinery 13%
Chemicals 4%
Other 7%
Precious stones, gold
8%
-
22
Prabodhan 2
014The
me 3
: T
he p
olitic
s o
f trade a
nd investm
ent
Sources: WTO, UNCTAD, RBI and World Bank
Barriers to foreign establishment (colour coded) and foreign equity caps (%)
*Excluding legal services
Telecom Retail Banking Life Insurance Prof. Services
India 74 51 74 26 0
EU 100 100 100 100 100*
China 49 100 100 50 100
Open Minor Barriers Major barriers Limited scope Closed
Applied and bound tariffs (%)
020406080
India Brazil Argentina Russia China Indonesia Kenya EU
Average applied Ag. Applied Merchandise applied
Average bound Ag. bound Merchandise bound
113 113 10095
FDI source2000-14
Inward foreign direct investment in India
$bn
0
50
100
150
200
250
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
stocksows Mauritius
37%
Singapore11%
UK10%Japan
7%
US6%
Others29%
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23© Global Counsel 2014
Panel 3: The politics of trade and investment
Areas for discussion
How is the political environment shaping the trade and investment policies of the new Indian
Government, the European Commission and European member states? What are the implications
and opportunities for business?
The role and focus of free trade agreements: Prabodhan will evaluate the priorities for Europe and India’s trade policy, the role free trade agreements might play and whether trade tools are a valuable part of securing new growth opportunities for businesses in global supply chains.
The global trade system: Following the failure to progress a global trade agreement through the WTO, the panel will consider if and how Europe and India can work together in the global trading system or whether the emerging focus on regional agreements signals the end of the multilateral system.
Them
e 3
: The p
olit
ics o
f trade a
nd in
vestm
ent
-
24
Prabodhan 2
014
Prime Minister’s Modi is putting the region first in foreign policy. He has already visited Nepal and Bhutan, and taken tentative steps towards discussions with Pakistan and the new Afghanistan government. He is due to attend the SAARC summit later this month and the ASEAN summit in Myanmar in the run up to the G20.
The core of India’s foreign policy is, however, to ‘look east’. Modi has focussed on the BRICS first, with the Summit in Brazil his first major multilateral engagement. Modi met his counterparts in China and Japan before visiting the United States, indicating the importance he attaches to East Asia. He has yet to visit Europe as Prime Minister or to receive a head of government from Europe.
Public opinion mirrors India’s international priorities. Indians worry about Islamic extremism, Pakistan’s stability and Chinese power. Defence spending in China has grown by 170% since 2004, four times as fast as in India. Many Indians view China unfavourably. India’s defence spending is, however, growing faster than Europe’s.
We have yet to see what the ‘link west’ dimension to India’s foreign policy
means and where Europe fits in. There are tensions in policy between India and the EU. India’s friendship with Russia remains strong, with Indians viewing Russia more favourably than the EU. Oil imports from Iran have slowed, but remain large, while Europe has joined the US in imposing an embargo. The EU and India have conflicting objectives in many institutions, such as the WTO.
In conversation: look east, link west – where
does Europe fit?
In c
onve
rsat
ion:
look
eas
t, li
nk w
est
– w
here
doe
s Eu
rope
fit?
-
25© Global Counsel 2014
In conversation: look east, link west – w
here does Europe fit?
Perceived threats to India
Sources: SIPRI Military Expenditure Database, Pew Research Center
Defence spending in 2013
China 170%
India 45%
US 12%
Russia 11%
Europe 8%
Growth in defence spending
2004 to 2013
US power
Iran's nuclear program
Int'l financial instability
Climate change
Chinese power
Pakistan instability
Islamic extremism
Major threat (%) Minor threat (%) Don't know No threat (%)
Indian perceptions of others unfavourable favourable
Pakistan
China
Iran
EU
Russia
US +41+22
+9-5
-6
-52
net
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
USA
Euro
pe
China
Russia
Fra
nce
UK
Germ
any
Japan
India
Italy
Pakista
n
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Military expenditure, 2013 (US$bn) Percentage of GDP, 2013
-
26
Prabodhan 2
014
China’s increasing productivity brings opportunities and risks as Chinese
manufacturing wages have tripled in the last decade. The World Bank estimates that 80 million manufacturing jobs could leave China. For India, its young population, engineering skills and entrepreneurial tradition make it a contender to lead the next wave of low-cost manufacturing. But India faces competition from the likes of Vietnam and Bangladesh. For Europe, China’s rising productivity may be the sign of competition to come in high value sectors.
The corollary of rising wages is a growing consumer market which could offer enormous opportunities for Indian and European corporates. However, there remains a long way to go on market access, and concerns remain about the treatment of foreign corporates – areas where Indian and European companies’ interests are aligned.
Despite deep and longstanding ties to Africa, both Europe and India have failed to capitalise fully on the last decade of growth. Since 2000, Chinese trade with Africa has increased almost twenty-fold, Indian nine-fold, and European only three-fold. Trade remains concentrated in primary commodities, particularly oil. For Indian corporates there are opportunities to leverage experience gained in their own domestic market. Indian and European businesses have, however, struggled to compete against Chinese SOEs backed by government financial support.
There are questions about the appetite in both India and Europe to look
abroad. Since the financial crisis Indian and European outward FDI flows have been in decline. Indian and European corporates may be missing out on opportunities abroad as downbeat business sentiment impacts on investment decisions.
Panel 4: collaborating in global markets
Panel 4:
collaboratin
g in g
lobal m
arkets
-
27© Global Counsel 2014
Panel 4
: colla
boratin
g in
glo
bal m
arkets
Average Chinese manufacturing wage
RMB per annumChinese urban households by income
millions
Outward foreign direct investment flows $ millions
Sources: National Statistics Bureau China, McKinsey Insights China, UNCTAD
53
23 23
93
185
118
14167
5
20
2000 2010 2020E
High [$34,000]
Middle [$16,000 to $34,000]
Low [$6,000 to $16,000]
Poor [
-
28
Prabodhan 2
014
Panel 4:
collaboratin
g in g
lobal m
arkets
Source: UNCTAD
EU $432bn
China $207bn
India $72bn
Total trade with Africa
2013Trade with Africa by sector
2013, $ billions
Growth in trade with Africa
Index, 2000=100
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012
EU
India
China
25.7%
18.7%
9.3%
CAGR
52
241
21
191
India EU
Primary
commodities
Other
-
29© Global Counsel 2014
Areas for discussion
What are the opportunities for collaboration in the face of global competition from China?
Responding to the China challenge: The rebalancing of China’s growth model in the coming years will have profound implications for European and Indian business prospects in global markets, and in China itself. Prabodhan will consider the implications and risks as China adjusts to a “new normal.”
Collaboration in third markets: Prabodhan will consider the sources of European and Indian competitive advantage in global markets – for example in Africa - and assess the opportunities for collaboration between Indian and European businesses.
Panel 4: collaborating in global markets
Panel 4
: colla
boratin
g in
glo
bal m
arkets
-
30 Prabodhan 2014
Notes
Notes
-
31© Global Counsel 2014
Notes
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32 Prabodhan 2014
Notes
-
33© Global Counsel 2014
Notes
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