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    PRESENTED BY

    DHARMENDRA MAHAPATRA

    ROLL NO-0701101250CIVIL ENGINEERING

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    INTRODUCTION

    Neuro fuzzy is combination of Neural Network and Fuzzy logic.

    Neuro-fuzzy hybridization results in a hybrid intelligent .

    system that synergizes these two techniques by combining the

    human-like reasoning style of fuzzy systems with the learning

    and connectionist structure of neural networks.

    Flood forecasting is very important for flood control and

    mitigation. It can effectively provide advance information for

    flood warning to people who are living in flood prone areas.

    The accuracy of flood forecast is evaluated by using statisticalefficiency index (EI), root mean square error (RMSE) and mean

    absolute error (MAE).

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    FUZZY LOGIC

    Fuzzy inference is a powerful problem-solving

    methodology with wide applications in industrial

    control and information processing.

    It provides a simple way to draw definite conclusions

    from vague, ambiguous or imprecise information.

    It resembles human decision making with its ability to

    work from approximate data and find precise

    solutions.

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    WORKING PROCEDURE OFFUZZY LOGIC

    It uses three simple rules:-

    Fuzzification-to convert numeric data

    aggregation (rule firing)-computation of fuzzy numbers

    defuzzification - convert the obtained fuzzy number

    back to the numeric data

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    FUZZY LOGIC ADVANTAGES

    Mimic human decision making to handle vague

    concepts.

    Rapid computation due to intrinsic parallel processing

    nature.

    Ability to deal with imprecise or imperfect information

    Improved knowledge representation and uncertainty

    reasoning. Modeling of complex, non-linear problems.

    Natural language processing/programming capability.

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    LIMITATION OF FUZZY LOGIC

    highly abstract and heuristic.

    need experts for rule discovery (data relationships).

    lack of self-organizing & self-tuning mechanisms of

    NN.

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    NEURAL NETWORK

    information processing paradigm inspired by biological

    nervous systems, such as our brain.

    Structure: large number of highly interconnected

    processing elements (neurons) working together.

    Neural networks are configured for a specificapplication, such as pattern recognition or data

    classification, through a learning process .

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    ADVANTAGES OF NEURAL NETWORK

    no need to know data relationships

    self-learning capability

    self-tuning capability

    applicable to model various systems

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    LIMITATION OF NEURAL NETWORK

    unable to handle linguistic information

    unable to manage imprecise or vague information

    unable to resolve conflicts

    unable to combine numeric data with linguistic or

    logical data

    difficult to reach global minimum even by complex BP

    learning rely on trial-and-errors to determine hidden layers and

    nodes

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    NEURO FUZZY TECHNIQUES

    handle any kind of information (numeric, linguistic,

    logical, etc.).

    manage imprecise, partial, vague or imperfect

    information. resolve conflicts by collaboration and aggregation.

    self-learning, self-organizing and self-tuning

    capabilities.

    no need of prior knowledge of relationships of data.

    mimic human decision making process.

    fast computation using fuzzy number operations.

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    NEURO FUZZY MODEL

    It is the way of applying various learning techniques

    developed in the neural network literature to fuzzy

    modeling or to a fuzzy inference system (FIS).

    Fuzzy Interface System:-

    A rulebase, which contains a selection of fuzzy rules.

    A database which defines the membership functions

    used in the fuzzy rules. A reasoning mechanism, which performs the inference

    procedure upon the rules to derive an output.

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    FIS STRUCTUREWITH CRISP OUTPUT

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    NEURO FUZZY SYSTEMS

    Neuro - fuzzy systems are developed based on the

    concept of neural methods on fuzzysystems.

    Types of Neuro Fuzzy system:-

    Takagi Sugano and Kang (TSK) fuzzy mode.

    Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Interface System(ANFIS).

    Fuzzy Adaptive Learning Control Network (FALCON).

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    TAKAGI SUGANO AND KANG (TSK) FUZZY

    MODEL

    It is an effort to formalize a system approach to

    generating fuzzy rules from an input-output data set.

    If x is A and y is B, then z = f(x, y)where A, B are fuzzy sets in the above; z = f(x, y)

    is a crisp function in the consequent.

    If f(x, y) is a constant, lead to the zero-order TSK fuzzymodel.

    If f(x, y) is a first-order polynomial, lead to the first-

    order TSK fuzzy model.

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    ANFIS MODEL

    An ANFIS network maps inputs through input membership

    functions and associated parameters, and then through output

    membership functions and associated parameters to outputs,

    can be used to interpret the input/output map.

    Fig. 2 illustrates the ANFIS architecture:-

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    MECHANISM OF ANFIS

    Layer 1: Every node in this layer is an adaptive node with a node function

    where x is the input to node i, A(i) is the linguistic label (small, large, etc.)

    associated with this node function and i is the MF of A(i). Usually A(x) is

    chosen to have a bell-shaped asF

    ig. 2 with a maximum equal to 1 and aminimum equal to 0, i.e.,

    where {a, b, c} is the premise parameters

    Layer 2: Every node in this layer is a fixed node labeled P, whose output

    is the product of all incoming signals:

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    CONTD

    Layer 3: Every node in this layer is a fixed node labeled N. The i(th) node

    calculates the ratio of the i(th) rules firing strength to the sum of all rules firing

    strengths:

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    CONTD

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    STUDY AREA

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    MODEL APPLICATION

    Using the first order Takagi Sugano and Kang fuzzy

    model so the consequent part of fuzzy if then rules

    is linear equation

    T norms operations that performs algebraic fuzzyoperation AND

    The type of MF used in bell function defined in above

    equation.

    The algorithm for update the MF parameters is back

    propagation.

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    RESULTS

    The ANFIS model is applied to forecast the daily discharge at the gaugingstation Y17 and Y6 in the Baitarani river basin.

    EI =SR/ST

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    CONCLUSION

    This paper presents the application of NFT in

    daily flood forecasting with promising results. It was

    shown that NFT has better capability and performance

    compared to ANN . It indicates that NFT model withthe knowledge contain infuzzy if then rule sets

    obtained from ANN is adaptive to flood forecasting

    better than ANN itself. The model accuracy decreases

    when the time of forecasting ahead is increased.Compared to ANN, NFT is better in term of accuracy

    and computing time.

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    REFERENCES

    Engineering Hydrology by P.C. Nayak,*, K.P. Sudheer,

    D.M. Rangan, K.S. Ramasastri,

    J.S Jang, ANFIS; Adaptive Network based Fuzzy

    Inference System, IEEE Transactionson Systems,Man,and Cybernetics, Vol. 23 No.3, (1993), pp 665-

    684.

    H. X. Li, C. L Philip Chen, Hang-Pang Huang, Fuzzy

    Neural Intelligent Systems,1st edition, CRC Press,

    (2001).

    www.google.co.in