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Auser‐centric modelofvotingintentionfromSocial MediaVasileiosLampos, DanielPreoţiuc‐Pietro & TrevorCohnComputerScienceDepartment,UniversityofSheffield,UK

1.1Kusers23K words

42Kusers81K words

wordsusers

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bi‐linear

bias

votingintention% forpoliticalparty during

timeinterval

regularisationparameterforwordweights

ℓ , ‐norm: rowof

RMSE % Method Austria UK

trainingsetbenchmark

mean poll 1.851 1.69

Lastpoll 1.47 1.723

Linear 1.442 3.067

, Bilinear 1.699 1.573

, BilinearMulti‐task 1.439 1.478

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filteringout words &users

UK3parties

predictions

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Austria4parties

predictions

SPÖÖVPFPÖGRÜ

polls

:frequencyofword foruser duringtimeinterval

parties polls

Bi‐convex iterativelearning1. Solve

,⦁

2. Fix andsolve,⦁

3. Fix andsolve,⦁

4. Validate? GotoStep2: END

predictionperformance