cityam 2011-04-18

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FTSE 100 5,996.01 +32.21 DOW 12,341.83 +56.68 NASDAQ 2,764.65 +4.43 £/$ 1.63 unc £/¤ 1.13 unc ¤/$ 1.44 -0. 01 The value bullish brokers have given to Glencore £48BN www.cityam.com Issue 1,366 Monday 18 April 2011 FREE RUSSIAN BACKS BANK ALEXANDER MAMUT TO BUY INTO NOMOS P4 WHY AVIVA’S BOSS IS BATTLING BUREAUCRATS ANDREW MOSS INTERVIEW P 1 9 BUSINESS WITH PERSONALITY GLENCORE could be worth up to a fifth more than pre-  viously thought, according to bullish estimates by ana- lysts, pushing its market cap  value up to $78bn (£47.8bn) if it floats success- fully in May.  Analysts at Barclays Capital and Credit Suisse –  both of which are on the deal – have suggested that the commodities trader is  worth a maximum of $69.2bn and $68.6bn respec- tively, in addition to whatev- er i t raises by floating.  This is sky-high compared to previous consensus valu- ations of $60bn. Glencore is looking to raise a total of $9- $11bn from floating in London and Hong Kong,  with a quarter of the shares to be sold in Asia. But the firm’s float comes at a choppy time for the initial public offering (IPO) market. Several IPOs have been cancelled in recent weeks, including Skr ill, Euroset, ISS and Edwards, all citing market uncertainty.  Volatility among mining stocks could also cont ribute to a difficult environment,  with G oldman Sachs (which is not on the Gl encore deal) calling the top of the commodities  boom in the medium-term last week. FTSE 100 miners have seen their share prices  bounce up and down over the last month: Xstrata, of  which Glencore owns 34 per cent, has seen a 13.3 per cent change in price while Rio Tinto’s stock has fluctu- ated by as much as 16.8 per cent. Such dramatic changes in price over the course of the IPO process – which kicked off last week and is expect- ed to complete in late May – can make it difficult for investo rs to evaluate what they are being offered. Certified Distribution 28/02/11 - 03/04/11 is 105,180 BY JULIET SAMUEL COMMODITIES 140209.7 2 H SBC H ld gs 116496.6 3 Vo da fone G ro up 91639.74 4 BP 87467.69 5 Ri o Tinto 67329.89 6 Gl ax oS mi th Kl ine 64632.03 7 BH P B i liton 55481.25 8 Britis h Amer ica n To ba cco 50512.42 9 BG Group 50437.24 10 Gl en c or e* 48000.0 11 Xs tr ata 43536.5 12 As tr aZ en ec a 41934.01 13 An gl o A merican 41721.13 14 Llo yd s Ba nki ng G rou p 41307.26 15 Sta ndard Cha rte red 38588.68 16 Ba rcl ays 37618.9 16 Gl en c or e ** 37000 COMPANY MARKET CAP (£M) HOW GLENCORE WILL SIT IN FTSE 100 1 Ro ya l Dutch Sh ell * If higher valuation is achieved ** If valuation is at lower end Pushing it to the limit: 35,000 people took part in the London Marathon SEE DIARY: P8 AND SPORT: P31

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FTSE 100 ▲5,996.01 +32.21 DOW ▲12,341.83 +56.68 NASDAQ ▲2,764.65 +4.43 £/$ 1.63 unc £/¤ 1.13 unc ¤/$ ▼1.44-0.01

The value bullish brokers havegiven to Glencore£48BN

www.cityam.comIssue 1,366 Monday 18 April 2011 FREE

RUSSIANBACKS BANK

ALEXANDER

MAMUT TO BUY

INTO NOMOS P4

WHY AVIVA’S BOSS ISBATTLING BUREAUCRATSANDREW MOSS INTERVIEW P19

BUSINESS WITH PERSONALITY

GLENCORE could be worthup to a fifth more than pre-

 viously thought, accordingto bullish estimates by ana-lysts, pushing its marketcap   value up to $78bn(£47.8bn) if it floats success-fully in May.

  Analysts at BarclaysCapital and Credit Suisse –

  both of which are on thedeal – have suggested thatthe commodities trader is

 worth a maximum of $69.2bn and $68.6bn respec-tively, in addition to whatev-er it raises by floating.

 This is sky-high comparedto previous consensus valu-ations of $60bn. Glencore islooking to raise a total of $9-$11bn from floating inLondon and Hong Kong,

 with a quarter of the sharesto be sold in Asia.

But the firm’s floatcomes at a choppy time forthe initial public offering(IPO) market. Several IPOs

have been cancelled inrecent weeks, includingSkrill, Euroset, ISS andEdwards, all citing marketuncertainty.

 Volatility among miningstocks could also contributeto a difficult environment,

  with Goldman Sachs(which is not on theGlencore deal) calling thetop of the commodities

 boom in the medium-termlast week.

FTSE 100 miners haveseen their share prices

 bounce up and down overthe last month: Xstrata, of 

  which Glencore owns 34per cent, has seen a 13.3 percent change in price whileRio Tinto’s stock has fluctu-ated by as much as 16.8 percent.

Such dramatic changes inprice over the course of theIPO process – which kickedoff last week and is expect-

ed to complete in late May –can make it difficult forinvestors to evaluate whatthey are being offered.

Certified Distribution

28/02/11 - 03/04/11 is 105,180

BY JULIET SAMUEL

COMMODITIES▲

140209.7

2 HSBC Hldgs 116496.6

3 Vodafone Group 91639.74

4 BP 87467.69

5 Rio Tinto 67329.89

6 GlaxoSmithKline 64632.03

7 BHP Billiton 55481.25

8 British American Tobacco 50512.42

9 BG Group 50437.24

10 Glencore* 48000.0

11 Xstrata 43536.5

12 AstraZeneca 41934.01

13 Anglo American 41721.13

14 Lloyds Banking Group 41307.26

15 Standard Chartered 38588.68

16 Barclays 37618.9

16 Glencore** 37000

COMPANY MARKETCAP (£M)

HOW GLENCORE WILLSIT IN FTSE 100

1 Royal Dutch Shell

* If higher valuation is achieved** If valuation is at lower end

Pushing it to the limit: 35,000 people took part in the London Marathon SEE DIARY: P8 AND

SPORT: P31

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News2 CITYA.M. 18 APRIL 2011

China battlesrising pricesFEARS over inflation in China stoked yet another rise in the amount that  banks are forced to hand over asreserves yesterday.

  The reserve ratio requirement(RRR) was hiked by 0.5 per cent to20.5 per cent last night, to be effec-tive from 21 April.

It marked the fourth 0.5 per centincrease in the RRR this year, andseventh since November.

Some economists expect theChinese authorities to continuemonetary tightening to offset exces-sive liquidity and stubbornly highinflation.

“The first-quarter GDP shows thatthe whole economy is good, so thereis still space for tightening,” said LinSongli, an economist with Guosen

Securities in Beijing. The rise came a day after central

 bank chief Zhou Xiaochuan said thattightening will stay on the agendafor “some time.”

  And last week, Premier Wen Jiabao signaled a hawkish stance forthe coming months, saying that thegovernment would use all tools at itsdisposal to wrestle inflation undercontrol.

  The RRR hike will will lock upabout 350bn yuan (£32.8bn) of cashthat banks would otherwise be ableto lend.

BY JULIAN HARRIS

ASIA ECONOMY▲

EU is set for its own sub-prime crisis

HUMAN beings have an infinite capac-ity for self-delusion, especially when itcomes to matters financial. I stillremember how, in late 2006 and early 2007, all too few investors, financiers,commentators and regulators wantedto believe that the US property market was in the early stages of a crash orthat there was anything to panicabout. Fewer still thought that theconsequences would be bad, let alone were predicting the cataclysmic crisisthat followed.

It sometimes seems that the same istrue again with Eurozone debt. I’m

not suggesting that it will necessarily cause another full-blown crisis orrecession, though there is an increas-ing chance that it will, albeit not this  year. But what I find strange is why 

otherwise rational people still believethat another bail-out or three, com- bined with a bit of pressure on coun-tries to balance their budgets, will beenough to allow the crisis to go away. There is absolutely no chance of that. The problem is massive – the analogy  with sub-prime American mortgagesis perfect, on all levels.

Greek debt is too high, the interestrates it has to pay too elevated, itsunderlying economy too feeble – it isnow in a vicious circle from whichonly bankruptcy can deliver it. Greece will default – it is merely a question of  when and what proportion of theirdebt the bondholders will lose. A third, equally important question, is whether Greece will become the f irstcountry to quit the euro and maybeeven the EU – either because it iskicked out, or because its electorate

refuses to become a EU protectorateand walks out of its own accord.

Greek five-year credit default swapsimply a 60 per cent probability of adefault at some point over the next

five years, with a one in five chanceover the next year, based on a 40 percent recovery rate. One Moody’s execu-tive suggested that bondholders willsuffer a 50-70 per cent haircut. Thismakes sense: just to bring Greece’sdebt to GDP ratio back to the suppos-edly binding but laughably ineffectiveMaastricht limit of 60 per cent of GDP would require a 62 per cent haircut.

 The official, on-balance sheet Greek national debt is  €340bn: local banksand funds own  €80bn of this, theEuropean Central Bank (ECB) has €50bn and much of the rest is held by European banks and financial institu-tions. A 62 per cent write-off wouldmean a loss of   €211bn. This would wipe out most Greek financial institu-tions, cripple the ECB and costEuropean banks and funds  €130bn.

 The pain is getting closer. European

 banks need to raise capital in prepara-tion; some are already doing that. A few billion won’t be enough; at least €150bn- €200bn will be necessary overthe next couple of years for Eurozone

financial institutions, especially if more countries begin to fall. British  banks are largely in the clear fromGreece; their real problems wouldstart if Spain begins to falter too.

European politicians and regulatorsmust study other sovereign defaults of the past 25 years to figure out how  best to manage. One option would bea European version of the Brady  bonds, issued when Latin Americancountries went bust in the 1980s.

Last but not least, the Europeanestablishment needs to accept thatthe single currency and the EU’smodel of economic management hasfailed as badly as sub-prime mortgagesfailed in the US. Unless Europe acceptsthat its experiment is ending in tears,no progress will ever be possible.

[email protected] Follow me on Twitter: @allisterheath

 THE Financial Stability Board (FSB) –the body set up to help coordinateglobal financial policy – has warnedsome G20 countries will struggle tomeet its deadline for derivatives mar-ket reforms.

  The FSB is overseeing the agreedmove towards greater transparency in the industry, including the encour-agement of electronically tradedexchanges and cross-country stan-

dardisation.However, in a progress report FSB

said it is “concerned that many juris-dictions may not meet the G20’s end-2012 deadline.”

It also said “differences inapproaches” are emerging betweencountries that could “weaken theeffectiveness of reforms in these mar-kets, create potential opportunitiesfor regulatory arbitrage, or subjectmarket participants and infrastruc-tures to conflicting regulatory requirements.”

BY STEVE DINNEEN

FINANCIAL MARKETS▲

G20 derivative reform lag FSB chairman Mario Draghi has warned countries may not meet strict deadline

NEWS | IN BRIEF

Coalition cracks show over AV voteCracks appeared in the coalition govern-ment yesterday over a looming referen-dum on voting reform as Conservativeand Liberal Democrat politicians clashedpublicly on the merits of adopting a newsystem. In a stinging attack, former LibDem leader Paddy Ashdown accused

Chancellor George Osborne of cheapmudslinging and scaremongering topush the “no” vote through. Last weekOsborne had said it “stinks” that themain backer of the pro-AV camp wasthe Electoral Reform Society, whom healleged stood to gain financially fromthe change.

BP shareholders want asset saleBP shareholders have called for theembattled firm to sell up to half of itsassets. The firm has already sold assetsworth more than $24bn (£14.7bn) aspart of a plan to divest $30bn to pay forthe Gulf of Mexico oil disaster by theend of the year. Some shareholders havebeen attracted by the prices BP hasbeen able to command and are urging itto sell another $30bn of its assets in aradical move that would see half of thecompany wound up.

EDITOR’S LETTER

ALLISTER HEATH

7th Floor, Centurion House,24 Monument Street, London, EC3R 8AJTel: 020 7015 1200 Fax: 020 7283 5334Email: [email protected] www.cityam.com

EditorialEditor Allister HeathDeputy Editor David HellierNews Editor David CrowNight Editor Katie HopeBusiness Features Editor Marc SidwellLifestyle Editor Zoe StrimpelSports Editor Frank DalleresArt Director Craig GaymerPictures Alice HeppleCommercialSales Director Jeremy SlatteryCommercial Director Harry Owen

Head of Distribution Nick Owen

Editorial StatementThis newspaper adheres to the system of 

 self-regulation overseen by the Press ComplaintsCommission. The PCC takes complaints about theeditorial content of publications under the Editor’sCode of Practice, a copy of which can be found at www.pcc.org.uk 

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Distribution helplineIf you have any comments about the distributionof City A.M. Please ring 0207 015 1230, or [email protected]

Central bank chief Zhou Xiaochuan saidthat more monetarytightening is still tocome.

EU TO PROBE DATA TRAFFIC MANAGEMENTRegulators are to launch the first pan-European investigation into telecomscompanies’ controversial data trafficmanagement practices, in an attemptto safeguard so-called net neutrality principles. European regulators willscrutinise whether fixed-line phoneand mobile operators are giving con-sumers enough information abouttheir traffic management policies.

ACTELION GAINS ALLY AGAINST ELLIOTT The upper hand in the battle between Actelion and Elliott Advisors has shift-ed in the Swiss biotechnology group’sfavour, after one of its biggestinvestors backed the board and man-agement. BB Biotech, Switzerland’s biggest biotech investment fund, willtoday tell other investors it will sup-port Actelion’s recommendations at a

showdown shareholders’ meeting on5 May.

AMÉRICA MÓVIL’S FINED $1BN

  América Móvil, the pan-Americantelephone operator controlled by bil-lionaire Carlos Slim, confirmed at the weekend that its Mexican subsidiary has been fined $1bn for “monopolis-tic practices”. The 12bn peso fine,relating to the area of completingcalls to mobile networks, is thelargest ever handed out by Mexico’sFederal Competition Commission(CFC), the antitrust body.

CARBON INSURANCE TO BE LAUNCHEDInvestors in the fast-developing marketfor carbon credits will for the firsttime be able to buy insurance to pro-tect them from the political uncertain-ty that underwriters believe has held  back emissions trading in Europe.Political decisions to change whichprojects are eligible for carbon creditsare one of the many factors holdingthe market back, as well as uncertain-

ties about what level of emissionsinfrastructure projects will deliver.

IMF RAISES ALARM OVER EXCHANGETRADED COMMODITIES FUNDSOne of the most successful invest-ment vehicles of the last decadecould be sowing the seeds of the nextfinancial crisis, a global financial watchdog warned. Pension funds andretail investors could lose billions of pounds in investment schemes sold widely in the US and Europe with thepromise of low costs and higherreturns than bank deposit rates.

BA AND UNION CHIEFS TO HOLD TALKSTHIS WEEKSenior figures at British Airways andthe Unite trade union will meet this week in the latest attempt to solve thelong-running cabin crew industrialdispute. BA chief executive Keith Williams and the general secretary of Unite, Len McCluskey, will hold face-

to-face talks at an undisclosed loca-tion tomorrow.

GOVERNMENT SECRETS PUBLISHEDONLINE IN WHITEHALL BLUNDERSSecret information from at least threeseparate government departments isavailable on the internet because of incompetent handling of sensitivematerial by Whitehall officials. TheMinistry of Defence, the Departmentof Health and the Department forCommunities and Local Governmenthave published sensitive documentsonline, but then failed to properly '”redact”' classified information.

SPAIN JOBLESS TOTAL 'COULD PASS 5M' The number of unemployed in Spain,  which has the highest jobless rateamong developed countries, couldreach a record of more than 5m, thelabour minister has warned. The col-lapse of the property bubble, com-pounded by the global financial crisis,

has left many people out of work,especially immigrants and youths.

TURKCELL'S BOARD URGED TO REMOVECHAIRMANNegotiators for the Russian andSwedish shareholders in Turkey'sdominant mobile-phone operator, Turkcell warned that the atmosphereon the board will turn openly "hos-tile" and could affect management, if an extraordinary meeting Thursday fails to remove the company's currentchairman.

CIC EYES EUROPE OPPORTUNITIESChina Investment Corp is looking forinvestment opportunities in Europe,though the head of China’s $300bnsovereign-wealth fund is cautiousabout the continent’s economy.Economic growth in European coun-tries is slowing because of the euro-zone sovereign debt crisis, said CICChairman Lou Jiwei on Saturday, not-

ing exports to emerging markets play akey role in driving Europe’s economy.

WHAT THE OTHER PAPERS SAY THIS MORNING

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CHEVRON chairman and chief execu-tive John Watson has slammedGeorge Osborne’s Budget-day taxincrease on oil and gas production inthe North Sea.

“It was very disappointing. It wasdone without consultation with theindustry, it’s the third tax hike in 10

  years, making the UK one of themore unstable investment climatesfor our business... When you increasetaxes every few years there will beunintended consequences of that interms of where we choose to invest,”

 Watson said in an interview with theFinancial Times.

PORTUGAL’S  €85bn (£75bn) rescuecould be delayed by a surge of anti-EU bailout fatigue in Finland,

  where the eurosceptic True Finnslooked on course for a stunningresult in elections last night.

Finland is unusual amongEurozone states in requiring amajority parliamentary vote formajor decisions regarding the EU,

  which would include contributingto Lisbon’s rescue. And theEurozone’s current temporary 

  bailout facility requires a unani-mous vote of all 17 member statesto dispense aid.

Economists predict “turmoil” if one of the Eurozone’s few paymas-ter economies – albeit one of itssmaller members – resists theregion’s third sovereign rescue.

Newedge’s Bill Blain said: “If onecore euro member does it, what’s tostop other sceptics in Holland andelsewhere doing the same?... Aneasy prediction for next week: stressand strain across the euro peripher-als again. And that means increas-ing worries about banks.”

“Delay in securing financial assis-tance to Portugal would… inevitably result in more market turmoil,”said Societe Generale’s MichalaMarcussen, calling Finland a poten-tial “thorn in the euro’s side”.

  The True Finns won 19 per centof the vote, adding to the probabili-ty that the party could be part of anew coalition government.

 That is a dramatic increase fromthe 4.1 per cent they received in thelast election in 2007.

 The True Finns, led by Timo Soini,are against a permanent Eurozone

  bailout fund and are in the samegrouping in the European parlia-ment as UKIP, the Europe of Freedom and Democracy party.

Meanwhile, fears that theEurozone’s peripheral economiescould be damaged by interest raterises by the European Central Bank (ECB) were dismissed by ECB execu-tive board member Jose ManuelGonzalez-Paramo. “A 25-basis-pointincrease like that on 7 April may not be convenient for those coun-tries who are behind in their recov-ery, but the ECB cannot hold off itsmandate because of that,” he told aChilean newspaper.

Finnish vote

could delayLisbon rescue

  ASKING prices for London homessurged to their highest ever level thismonth, a Rightmove index revealstoday.

Sellers’ prices spiked 1.6 per cent in  April, to an eye-watering average of £431,013, the property website said.

 Across the UK as a whole, averageasking prices stand at £235,822, after

an even sharper rise (1.7 per cent).However, steep asking prices areoptimistic, given the ongoing difficul-ties purchasers face.

High supply and low demand result-ed in the largest monthly jump inagents’ unsold stock since May 2007,the index showed.

 Yet March saw a surge in the annualgrowth of new homes, according to aseparate survey by Smart New Homes,also released today.

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Asking prices soarfor London homes

 A QUARTER of marketing executivescut their budgets in the f irst quarterof this year in the worst crisis of con-fidence since the height of the reces-sion in 2009. Just 20 per centincreased their spending, accordingto a bellwether report for theInstitute of Practitioners in

 Advertising. Almost 38 per cent of respondents

to the survey, produced with BDO by Markit Economics, said they weremore worried about their industry than they were three months ago,

  with just 26 per cent more confi-dent.

Gloomy outlookfor marketingChevron chief slams oil tax

BY JULIET SAMUEL

EUROZONE CRISIS▲

OIL AND GAS▲

MARKETING▲

The True Finns. ledby Timo Soini, arelikely to voteagainst a Finnishcontribution to abailout of Portugal

 Picture: REUTERS

BY JULIAN HARRISHOUSING▲

News 3CITYA.M. 18 APRIL 2011

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BILLIONAIRE oligarch AlexanderMamut is set to become a cornerstoneinvestor in Russian private bank Nomos in its upcoming London shareoffering, despite failing to raise fundsin an aborted stock market sale last

 week.  The Moscow-based businessman,

 best known in Britain as the owner of  blogging site Livejournal, has placed

an order for tens of millions of dollarsof stock in the bank, which is due toset a price for its initial public offer-ing (IPO) today.

He had planned to raise $1.35bn(£827m) through the sale of a 35 percent stake in Russian mobile network operator Euroset, before the company pulled the plug on its IPO plans at theeleventh hour.

  The firm blamed “challengingand volatile” market conditions,

  becoming the latest casualty of 

London’s faltering market for new company offers. The success of Nomos’ listing could

 breathe new life into the market, as itlooks to raise up to $700m.

 The bank tightened the price rangefor its global depository receipts(GDR) to the higher end of expecta-tions at the end of last week, indicat-ing strong investor appetite.

It will now look to raise between$17.25 and $17.75 per GDR, from

 between $16 and $18.5 per GDR.

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Mamut ploughs on withNomos despite setbackBYRICHARD PARTINGTON

CAPITAL MARKETS▲

News4 CITYA.M. 18 APRIL 2011

Oligarch Alexander Mamut will invest millions in Nomos’ share offer. Picture: PA

NEIL Kell is leading the advisory forDeutsche Bank as joint global coordina-tors on the Nomos initial public offering(IPO).

Based in London, Kell moved toDeutsche from Bank of America Merrill

Lynch last year to become head of thefinancial institutions group in equitycapital markets (ECM).

He was joined by Marina Kraschenkoin Moscow on the Nomos deal.

Kraschenko also joined theFrankfurt-based bank last year, movingfrom United Capital Partners tobecome head of ECM in Moscow.

The bank is also leading theCommerzbank capital increase, as thefellow German bank looks to raise up to€650m (£575m) to increase its finan-cial strength.

Deutsche is raising equity for Italianbanks Intesa San Paolo, Banca Montedei Paschi and German lender AarealBank.

Credit Suisse is also acting as joint

global coordinator on the Nomos offer-ing.

Citigroup, Credit Suisse, DeutscheBank and VTB Capital are acting as

 joint bookrunners.

MEET THE ADVISERS

NEIL KELL

DEUTSCHE BANK

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LUXURY retailer Burberry plans toexpand “aggressively” in London, in a

 bid to improve on what are set to bestrong half-year trading figures outtomorrow.

Burberry, expected to report on-track underlying sales knocked slight-ly by a fall in revenues fromdisaster-hit Japan, is set to ramp up itsexisting growth plans for London inthe coming years.

Burberry chief executive Angela

 Ahrendts said in an interview at the  weekend: “I think it’s time that weaggressively reinvest in London – ourreal estate footprint and our brandfootprint. Last time I looked there wasa big thing called the Olympics com-ing and they are inviting millions of people into the town.”

 Ahrendts did not put a price tag onthe investment, and a spokespersonfor Burberry said yesterday the firm isnot yet aiming for a specific numberof stores or revenue gains.

 Analysts have pored over Burberry’soutlook since the Japanese quake andtsunami on 11 March, which knockedmore than seven per cent off thefirm’s share price.

 The company is expected to revealsome of the impact from Japan in itssecond-half update tomorrow, thoughanalysts at Deutsche Bank still expectto see 11 per cent organic growth.More than 20 per cent of Burberry’sprofits are generated in Japan.

Burberry is already set to open aflagship store on Regent Street after

 buying up shops formerly occupied by 

LK Bennett and Habitat. The outlet fol-lows Burberry’s new Brit store inCovent Garden, which opened last

 week.

Burberry bossplots growthfor London LIBYAN rebels came under fire on the

outskirts of Ajdabiyah yesterday, forc-ing them eastwards and dentinghopes of an end to the war’s stale-mate.

One witness said he saw around adozen rockets land near the westernentrance to town, which rebels want-ed to use as a staging post to retakethe oil port of Brega.

But although some rebels made itinto the outskirts of Brega, 50 milesto the west, many others retreated to

  Ajdabiyah after six were killed by rockets fired by Gaddafi loyalists.

  Yesterday marked a month sincethe UN Security Council passed a res-olution authorising force to protectcivilians in Libya.

  The United States, France andBritain said last week they would not

stop bombing Gaddafi’s forces untilhe left power. But despite NATO airstrikes, rebels have been unable tohold gains in weeks of fighting.

Prime Minister David Cameron said  yesterday the constraints on deploy-ing ground troops in Libya were mak-ing the campaign more difficult, butit was the right decision. He told Sky News: “What we’ve said is there is noquestion of invasion or an occupa-tion – this is not about Britain put-ting boots on the ground.”

Cameron: No UKground troopsfor Libyan war

BYMARION DAKERS

CONSUMER▲

WORLD▲

● The luxury retailer, which floated in 2002,makes four per cent of its sales and 21 per centof its profits in Japan● Burberry’s Asian division was its fastest-growing business in 2010

FAST FACTS | BURBERRY

News 5CITYA.M. 18 APRIL 2011

Return to home ground makes perfectsense for the UK’s traditional outfitterCOMING after weeks of share price

 volatility following the Japan earth-quake, Ahrendts’ enthusiasm forLondon could look like a miscalcu-lated retrenchment, especially whenBurberry’s Asian sales grew 50 percent in the first six months of 2010.

So has market uncertainty really 

spooked Ahrendts that much?  The answer is a definite no. Far

from turning its back on Asia,Burberry is taking a calculated stepto make the best of both worlds.

Much of the brand’s appeal in Asiarelies on its English heritage status –started in Hampshire in 1856, itsBritish milestones include inventingthe trench coat during WWI.

  The European market may now contribute just a third of overall

sales, but it is where the origins of the brand’s success lie.

  And investors needn’t fear thatdecisions are being made on aesthet-ics alone – Ahrendts is still fiercely pursuing the tourist pound.

 Thirty per cent of Burberry’s prof-its in London are down to Chinese

tourists, spending six times more onholiday than they do at home.

 Ahrendts said just last week thatshe wanted to “sell the British atti-tude across the world”. When it’s soclear that’s what her core Asian cus-tomers want, her latest move is any-thing but inward-looking.

BOTTOMLINEAnalysis by Elizabeth Fournier

 Burberry head Angela Ahrendts is planning aggressive reinvestment in London Picture: PA

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NewsCITYA.M. 18 APRIL 2011 7

UBS will find out tomorrow whetherit has been granted planning permis-sion for its new £340m headquarters,though lobbyists who want theBroadgate site to be granted listed sta-tus could get any approval over-turned.

 The City of London planning com-mittee has already recommended the700,000 square foot campus forapproval, but English Heritage couldsupersede this with a request to give

the Broadgate estate, designed by Peter Foggo in the 1980s, protectedlisted status.

English Heritage will tell the gov-ernment within the next month whether the site should be protected,after completing an assessment of the site.

“The City is fully aware of theprocess that’s going on, and they canmake a decision but if we make a rec-ommendation to the Department forMedia, Culture and Sport to list the

 buildings, then they are protected by law,” a spokesperson for EnglishHeritage said yesterday.

  The developers, British Land andBlackstone, have already made con-cessions in an effort to stave off listedstatus, agreeing in February to pre-serve 3 Broadgate, a three-storey  building used as a marketing suite forthe previous Broadgate development.

UBS announced last August that itexpected to move into the proposed13-storey building in 2016. The bank has agreed to pay at least £32mthrough rent agreements even if the

scheme does not get planning per-mission.

British Land and UBS could not bereached for comment yesterday.

UBS to learnfate of £340mheadquartersBYMARION DAKERS

PROPERTY▲

● The Broadgate estate of 16 buildings wasdesigned by Peter Foggo, then of Arup Partners,in the 1980s● 4 and 6 Broadgate are set to be demolishedto make way for the UBS HQ

FAST FACTS | BROADGATE

City speaks out against Portugalbailout and Ed Balls’ political U-turn

In association withPoliticsHome.com

Apply to join today atwww.cityam.com/panel

TWO THIRDS of our Voice of the Citypanel think that the UK contributing toa European bailout of Portugal is thewrong decision, with 41 per centbranding the move “completely wrong”and 23 per cent “somewhat wrong”.Just 12 per cent of respondents thinkthe bailout is “completely right”.

Comments submitted to the panelwere withering, with most saying theUK should focus on problems closer tohome before agreeing to help thosefurther afield.

“We need to get our house in orderregardless of what’s happening abroad.Rather than providing funds forbailouts for other countries, thosemonies could be used to reduce our

deficit further,” said one respondent.A minority did see the planned

bailout as an opportunity for the UK torealise a return, however, with onepanellist commenting: “Bearing inmind we can borrow the money at afour per cent interest rate and thePortuguese government will repay at6.5 per cent, I think this is a reason-able bit of business.”

No fewer than 49 per cent of partic-ipants agree with chancellor GeorgeOsborne’s assertion that the

Portuguese experience justifies thedepth and speed of austerity cuts inthe UK, and 15 per cent see the latestsovereign casualty as proof that UKcuts should be even more drastic. Only

PoliticsHome.comPoliticsHome.com

4.5 per cent backed the view thatPortugal showed that the UK’s cutsare being made too drastically, while29 per cent said the countries weretoo different to compare.

Balls spoke out last week to say theUK should limit its contribution to thebailout fund, despite the agreementsigned by Labour’s ex-chancellorAlistair Darling last year that the UK

would contribute 13 per cent to theEU’s bailout fund. But only 17.5 percent said this u-turn made them feelmore favourable towards him. Twenty-eight per cent of those polled said thatBalls’ scepticism had made them feel“much less favourable” towards himand 14 per cent somewhat less so.

“Balls’ comments display a level of complete ignorance as to how UKbanks have a very substantial expo-sure across Europe in holdings of bothsovereign and corporate debt in thecountries affected, and the potentiallosses that could be suffered on adefault,” said one.

Statistics were compiled from the489 responses to the latest Voice of the City poll, printed in lastWednesday’s City A.M. and completedonline by our City panel. Apply to jointhe panel at www.cityam.com/panelParticipants could be in with the

chance of winning a free luxury week-end to Paris. In September, we’ll putpanellists who have responded to atleast 80 per cent of surveys into aprize draw. Full T&Cs on request.

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News 9CITYA.M. 18 APRIL 2011

MISERY on the British high street will be further confirmed by this week’sofficial retail sales data, economistsexpect, with attention turning to

  business investment to offset theslump in consumer spending.

Business investment will increase by 12 per cent this year and by a fur-ther 14 per cent in 2012, the Ernstand Young Item Club forecasts.

“The importance of companies

releasing some of the cash they havestockpiled over the recession cannot

  be underestimated,” said Item Clubeconomist Peter Spencer.

“Their spare cash flows equate tonearly seven per cent of GDP.”

Official retail sales figures forMarch are released on Thursday. The

 volume of sales on the UK high streetin February fell by 0.8 per cent, com-pared to the previous month.

“UK households continue to seetheir purchasing power being eroded

 by the rising cost of everyday living,”said Markit’s Alex Hamilton.

Inflation expectations have  jumped to a record high in Aprilaccording to Markit’s householdfinance index, also released today.

Nine in 10 households expect thecost of living to be even higher at thistime next year, while 85 per cent of respondents reported higher coststhan just one month ago.

  The outlook for householdfinances has also tumbled to a recordlow, Markit revealed.

Real disposable incomes will fallfor the second year running in 2011,the Item Club added – the first timethis has happened since the 1970s.

  The squeeze from inflation andsluggish wage growth is hammeringeconomic confidence in the UK,according to Ashish Prashar fromIpsos MORI.

Only one in four (26 per cent) of Brits expect their local economy to bestronger in six months from now,according to a new Ipsos MORI poll.

Business canhelp offset UKconsumer dip  WAGE growth remains stagnant and

 well below current levels of consumerprice inflation, manufacturers’ groupEEF announced today.

 Average pay settlements came in at2.4 per cent for the three months toMarch, the same figure as recorded amonth earlier.

“Almost four in five settlements areat three per cent or less,” according toEEF’s monthly survey, which coversover 40,000 employees in the manu-facturing sector.

  Wage settlements in UK factorieshave edged up only slightly sinceDecember’s three-month average of 2.2 per cent, with around one in eight

  wage negotiations still ending in apay freeze.

However, the proportion of settle-

ments ending in a rise of two per centor more is edging upwards, from 53.1per cent in January’s survey; measur-ing 57.8 per cent in February’s survey;and 60.2 per cent in the latest survey.

  Across all sectors, regular pay(excluding bonuses) rose by an annu-alised two per cent in the threemonths to February, the Office forNational Statistics said last week.

Eyeing the next set of data, EEF said  April is the second most commonmonth for settling pay negotiations.

Pay growth stillsluggish in UKmanufacturing

BY JULIAN HARRIS

UK ECONOMY▲

BY JULIAN HARRISUK ECONOMY▲

ECONOMISTS’ VIEWS: WILL THE SLUMP INTHE RETAIL SECTOR CONTINUE? Interviews by Julian Harris

RICHARD LIM | BRITISH RETAIL CONSORTIUM

We saw the worst high street sales for 16 years in our survey forMarch, and I expect the Office for National Statistics data to show a similar pic-ture. There was definitely an impact from Easter falling later this year, but the sizeof the fall in sales was beyond any seasonal impact.

HOWARD ARCHER | IHS GLOBAL INSIGHT

We forecast retail sales volumes to have fallen by 0.6 per cent month-on-month in March after dipping by 0.8 per cent in February. Consumers areclearly less able and willing to spend as their purchasing power is squeezed hardby high inflation, muted wage growth and the increasing fiscal squeeze.

ANDREW GOODWIN | ERNST AND YOUNG ITEM CLUB

We don’t expect the figures to be as bad as in February. We think thatFebruary’s data was very heavily influenced by the fact that January's sales wereboosted by strong spending prior to the VAT rise. The ONS should also adjust itsfigures to account for the late-falling Easter this year.

Sales data is expected to show more high street misery Picture: Micha Theiner/ City A.M.

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City workers are massive contributors to the exchequer Picture: REUTERS

News 11CITYA.M. 18 APRIL 2011

UK dividends soared by an underlying7.9 per cent to £15bn in the first quar-ter of 2011, according to a survey pub-lished today.

  The rise represents a £1.4bn liftcompared with the same period last year and the largest quarterly growthfor three years.

 The strong first quarter means div-idend experts Capita Registrars, whocarried out the research, hasincreased its full year forecast to

£64.2bn.  The biggest factor boosting the

first quarter was a chunky specialdividend from International Power –92p net per share – which con-tributed over a tenth of the total pay-out.

BP, despite the troubles it findsitself in with its protracted plans toexpand in Russia, finally began topay an income to its shareholdersagain following the Gulf of Mexicospill crisis.

 The oil giant, whose dividends rep-resent a significant chunk of thetotal on the FTSE, paid out £900m.Companies on the FTSE 100 con-tributed 92 per cent of the first divi-dends, compared to six per cent fromthe FTSE 250.

  The first quarter growth camedespite the strong base for 2010, when BP paid a full £1.8bn dividend,and a number of companies broughtforward payouts to beat the 50p taxrate. A total of 156 companies paid adividend in the f irst quarter.

 While 126 companies increased or

reinstated dividends, only 40 cut orcancelled. Capita Registrars chief executive Charles Cryer said: “2011has got off to a very strong start, andunderlying dividend growth willaccelerate from here. Incomeinvestors are set to enjoy the best year since 2008, with an extra £7.7bnflowing from UK companies intotheir pockets.” Share buybackstotalling at least £16.5bn will addanother 25 per cent on top of the div-idend total.

Dividends hit£15bn as FTSEups payouts   WORKERS in the Square Mile con-

tributed £11bn to the public purselast year through income tax andnational insurance, according toresearch.

In the tax year 2010/2011 theamount of income tax and NI contri- butions paid by staff working in theCity was the equivalent to the taxpaid by the entire Scottish workforce(£11bn).

Scotland’s contributions to thetreasury were £366,000 per squaremile, 0.003 per cent of London’sSquare Mile, the data from globalrecruiter Ambition found.

 The amount paid by City workersfor the year 2010/2011 is the equiva-lent to the total spent by the UK gov-ernment in 2009/10 on winter fuelpayments (£2.7bn), TV licences for the

over-75s (0.6bn), the entire wage andpension bill for British armed forces(£5.5bn).

Simon Lynch, managing director of   Ambition UK, said: “The City hasreceived a torrent of abuse over thelast three years but it’s time people woke up to how valuable a contribu-tion its workers make to the publicpurse.

“Not everyone in the Square Mile works in a bank or walks away with amulti-million pound bonus.”

City pays asmuch tax asall of Scotland

BY JOHN DUNNE

DIVIDENDS▲

FINANCIAL SERVICES▲

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City job creation is helping drive UK recovery

When it comes to generatinggrowth and reducing the budget deficit, job creationis unquestionably the best

economic policy.Increasing employment across all

sectors and regions of the economy is

essential for the wider recovery.Of course, creating jobs at a time of 

austerity measures is easier said thandone. But last week’s ONS figuresshowing that unemployment fell by 

17,000 in the three months to the endof February were a step in the rightdirection.

Significantly, around 300,000 more jobs were created in the private sectorthan were lost in the public sector  year-on-year in December. And anincreasing proportion of these extra  jobs were full-time. This data offers welcome signs of recovery.

 The scale and liquidity of the City’sfinancial services cluster is helping tosupport such growth among both ourlargest firms and the 4.8m SMEs

across the UK. The private sector has acrucial role to play in deliveringinvestment, wealth creation and jobsas public spending cuts begin to bite.

But as always there is room for

improvement. It is clear that many consumers and firms have been cry-ing out for more competition in theindustry. It is only right, therefore,that the Independent Commission onBanking investigate the options avail-able to achieve such an outcome aslong as it does not compromise theCity’s international competitiveness.

Competition for business, dealsand jobs is the cornerstone of theCity.

So at a time when immigration has been in the headlines again it is vital

that we ensure City firms can contin-ue to fight for the best global talenton a level playing field.

Immigration is an emotive issuegiven its impact on jobs and commu-

nities. The Government is under-standably working hard to keep itspledge to reduce net migration. Butone of the City’s greatest strengthshas always been its openness. The UK financial services industry reflects itsclient base by being internationally owned, staffed and managed.

 We welcome highly skilled individ-uals from all corners of the globe, asdemonstrated by the fact that thissummer’s City of London Festival willcelebrate music and arts from Australia, New Zealand and the South

Pacific. The Festival’s Trading Placestheme reflects that our business andcultural ties transcend nationality.

  That is why even though signifi-cant concessions have already been

made regarding skilled non-EU work-ers and intra-company transfers wecannot afford to be complacent aboutimmigration.

I know from personal experiencethat the UK and London have alwayspromoted an open business environ-ment. This is precisely why the bestinternational companies choose to do  business in the City: because they know it is the place to do business best internationally. Michael Bear is Lord Mayor of the City of  London

 THE CANDY brothers have sold one of the penthouse suites in the One HydePark development for a record£136.4m, documents lodged with theLand Registry show.

 The anonymous buyer, under theguise of a British Virgin Islands-regis-tered company and a Swiss private bank account, bought the three-floorapartment plus parking spaces and a

 wine storage room, signing a 999-yearlease starting in November 2006,according to the paperwork.

 The flat is the most expensive soldin the UK to date.

 Around 45 apartments have now  been sold and listed with the LandRegistry, though some buyers have  bought several flats and convertedthem into larger properties.

  The £136m sale, registered last week, was for two flats that will beknocked through into one. The buyer

used lawyers from Ukraine and isspending up to £60m on interior work.

  The buyer is understood to havepaid cash.

SJ Berwin, the law firm overseeingthe sales, said more than £1bn-worthof transactions are either complete orunder offer.

 The Candy brothers completed thehigh-end apartment block in January,  but have kept the identity of thegrowing number of residents secret.

Candy flat sells for £136m

  THE health authorities are suingReckitt Benckiser for £89m over thesupply of its heartburn medicineGaviscon, the company said yesterday.

“We will be vigorously defending it[the lawsuit],” a Reckitt spokeswomansaid.

In October, Reckitt was fined£10.2m by the Office of Fair Trading

after admitting abuse of its dominantposition in Britain for the supply of Gaviscon.

Reckitt admitted infringing Britishand European competition law by  withdrawing and delisting GavisconLiquid original from the NHS pre-scription service in 2005 and replac-ing it with a different-formulaGaviscon Liquid advance, for whichthere is no generic rival.

Reckitt Benckiser to be sued for£89m over supply of Gaviscon

PHARMACEUTICALS▲BYMARION DAKERS

PROPERTY▲

MAYOR’S COMMENT

MICHAEL BEAR

News12 CITYA.M. 18 APRIL 2011

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BUILDERS will start work on a cablecar across the Thames during thesummer, the Mayor of London Boris

 Johnson confirmed today.Mace, the construction group that

 built the London Eye, will lead the work on the route linking Greenwichto the Royal Victoria Docks that is setto cost more than £40m.

Mace will be joined by Austrian

cable car specialists Dopplemayr, Watson Steel, URS Scott Wilson, BuroHappold and Aedas.

 TfL said yesterday the consortiumhopes to deliver the scheme beforethe 2012 Olympics but warned that“this remains an extremely challeng-ing timeline for a complex project”.

 TfL also today invited commercialpartners to sponsor the project,

 which includes the right to name thecrossing. The winning bidder will beannounced later this year.

  The cable car, 164 feet above theriver, will take around five minutesto travel between the O2 and ExCelcentre and is expected to carry up to2,500 passengers an hour.

Boris Johnson said in a statement:“This innovative airborne travel link 

  will be a vital component in theongoing renaissance of a vibranteasterly quarter of the Capital, pro-

 viding a much needed river crossing.I am thrilled we are full steam aheadto start work on this project.”

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BYMARION DAKERSTRANSPORT▲

News14 CITYA.M. 18 APRIL 2011

The cable car is due to complete in time for the Olympics PICTURE: Transport for London

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News 15CITYA.M. 18 APRIL 2011

NEWS | IN BRIEF

Shearings for sale for £40mThe coach holiday company Shearingshas been put up for sale by 3i for an esti-

mated £40m, according to reports yes-terday. 3i, the London-listed privateequity company which bought the firmfrom Bridgepoint Capital, last yearappointed advisers from Deloitte to find a

buyer for the company. But after a dealwith a trade buyer failed to materialise,3i asked PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)

to find a new private equity investor toback the existing management team in abuy-out from the London-listed group.PwC’s new auction process will beginshortly, sources said

Samsung may be mulling saleSamsung Electronics Co may be lookingto sell its hard-disk-drive business for

$1.5bn (£919m), according to weekendreports. It is understood the companywould use the proceeds of the sale toinvest in higher growth areas. Samsungcould not be reached for comment.

Rosenblatt SolicitorsRosenblatt Solicitors has appointedCathy Ley as a partner to lead the law

firm’s projects, construction and infra-structure team. Most recently, Leyworked as head of the public, private

partnership law team at the LondonDevelopment Agency.

Old Broad Street ResearchThe research firm has appointed PhilLindsay as business development direc-tor for UK intermediary and institution-

al solutions. Lindsay will provideresearch and software capabilities, aswell as consulting solutions.

TorusThe global insurer has appointed JoséRamón González as general counsel.González, who was most recentlydeputy general counsel of Torus’ USoperations, will be responsible for

Torus’ legal, regulatory and complianceservices worldwide.

Barclays WealthBarclays Wealth has appointedTheophanis Theophanous as managingdirector and ultra high net worth

banker. He joins Barclays from Deloittewhere he has worked since 2001, mostrecently as a partner and head of pri-vate client services in the Cyprus office.

City Asset ManagementThe investment firm has appointedChris Gillam as intermediary sales man-ager. Gillam joins from Ashcourt RowanAsset Management, where he was an

intermediary relationship manager forEssex and East Anglia.

BLPLaw firm Berwin Leighton Paisner hasappointed Keith Wilson as a partner inthe asset finance team. Wilson, who

was previously head of finance at PaulHastings in London, has spent morethan 20 years working as a financelawyer in London and Hong Kong.

MenziesThe accountant and adviser to privatelyowned businesses has appointed JayneSimpson as VAT manager. Simpson

 joins from the same role at PwC.

CITY MOVES | WHO’S SWITCHING JOBS Edited by Harriet Dennys

Halifax Share DealingThe execution-only broker has confirmedDamian Stansfield as its new managing director.Stansfield moves from Lloyds Banking Group,where he held the position of risk director fordirect channels and group marketing. In his new

role, Stansfield will be responsible for the day-to-day management of Halifax Share Dealingand strategic development of the business,focusing on regulation, technological innovationand changes in customer preference.

+44 (0)20 7092 0053morganmckinley.com

To appear in CITYMOVESplease email your careerupdates and pictures to [email protected] SPECIALISTS IN GLOBAL PROFESSIONAL RECRUITMENT

in association with

ONLINE casino gaming firm 888.comhas denied a US crackdown on inter-net poker sites will harm it, followinga turbulent week for the company  which saw the departure of its chief executive, chairman and its mergertalks with Ladbrokes end in tatters.

 The firm said the suspension of itsoperations in the US since 2006meant it was within the law,although the prospect of litigationremains and had earlier been linkedto Ladbrokes’ decision to walk away from a deal.

 The federal government launcheda swooping crackdown on internetpoker sites on Saturday, arresting thefounders of three of the largest onlinepoker firms doing business in the US.

 The websites of PokerStars, Full TiltPoker and Absolute Poker were seizedand taken offline by the government.

 The ongoing Department of Justiceinvestigation into online gamblingcould also put 888 in the f iring line.

 The firm has not struck a deal withUS authorities to give it immunity from retrospective legal action inrelation to its activities in Americaprior to 2006.

However, 888 recently gained

approval from Nevada state regula-tors for a marketing agreement withLas Vegas hotel Caesars, a move thefirm said would bolster its push forlicensed online gaming in the US.

Shares in the company plummetedafter Ladbrokes announced it had walked away, whilst stock in the highstreet bookmaker shot upwards.

 The development follows the shock departure of chief executive Gigi Levy last week, following a row with thefirm’s Israeli owners.

888’s problems were further com-pounded when chairman BrianMattingley walked out just days later.

However, the firm produced strongfinancial results for its first quarter of this year, and said that even withoutLadbrokes its business remained“well-positioned” for future growth.

888 hit as US

cracks downBY RICHARD PARTINGTON

LEISURE▲

SAUDI Arabia’s oil minister said yes-terday the kingdom had slashed out-put by 800,000 barrels per day inMarch due to oversupply, sending thestrongest signal yet that OPEC willnot act to quell soaring prices.

Consumers have urged theexporters’ group to pump more crudeto put a cap on oil, which surged tomore than $127 a barrel this month,its highest level in 2 1/2 years amidunrest in North Africa and the MiddleEast.

Oil Ministers from Kuwait and theUnited Arab Emirates echoed Saudi

 Arabia’s Ali al-Naimi’s concerns aboutoversupply and said rocketing crude

prices were out of the hands of OPEC, which next meets in June.

“The market is overbalanced ... Ourproduction in February was 9.125m barrels per day (bpd), in March it was8.292m bpd. In April we don’t know   yet, probably a little higher thanMarch. The reason I gave you thesenumbers is to show you that the mar-ket is oversupplied,” Naimi toldreporters.

 Two Saudi-based industry sourcessaid last week the kingdom had cutoutput due to poor demand, prompt-ing selling by traders who saw it as asign of a well-supplied market. But

crude rebounded later in the week onoptimism about the US economy.

Saudi Arabia shows it will notquell oil prices, by cutting outputOIL

ANALYSIS l 888

p

14 Apr16 Mar24 Feb4 Feb17 Jan

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55

50

45

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IAN El-Mokadem, the former head of catering services firm Compass in the

UK, starts as new chief executive of materials testing firm Exova today.El-Mokadem’s four-year turnaround

of Compass, as well as stints atCentrica companies British Gas andOneTel, have earned him a reputationfor successfully growing and overhaul-ing service sector UK firms.

 At Exova, which tests materials andproducts for companies such as Rolls-Royce and GE, he sees himself as a cat-alyst for growth, he told City A.M.

“This move makes perfect sense asit’s another service business, this time very clearly growth. The challenge is tocontinue its growth story,” he said.“I think the emphasis is going to

 be on organic growth.”El-Mokadem was credited  with restoring trust inCompass, which he joined in2005 after three profit warn-ings, a scandal over its contractto supply UN peacekeepers,and the ousting of chief executive MikeBailey. At Centricahe was British Gas’head of marketing

 before being tasked with growing itstelecoms operator OneTel from start-up in 2000. He made it the UK’s largestfixed-line provider, and sold it to

Carphone Warehouse in 2005.

Exova was bought out frommaterials testing firm Bodycote  by Clayton Dubilier & Rice in2008. Life in a private firm will be

different from a plc but the samestandards apply, he said. “This job

is about running the business in theright interests of customers and

shareholders. Whether it’sCompass, Centrica or Exova, themindset the leadership teamneeds to have is very similar.”

New job for El-Mokadem

News16 CITYA.M. 18 APRIL 2011

BYALISON LOCK

SUPPORT SERVICES▲

NEWS | IN BRIEF

Fiat to buy bigger Chrysler stakeItaly’s Fiat expects to pay around $1.5bn(£919m) for an additional 16 per centstake in Chrysler, which it hopes to buylater this year after the US automakerrepays government loans, three people

familiar with the matter said. Italy’sbiggest industrial group is also workingto raise about  €1.5bn (£1.3bn) through acredit facility and is expected to launchthe deal in coming months.

Global merger deals hithighest value since 2007

 THE COMBINED value of mergers andacquisitions (M&A) deals announcedso far this year has hit the highestlevel since 2007, according to dataprovider Dealogic.

M&A volume has hit $934.3bn(£572.9bn) so far this year, driven by astring of lucrative deals includingGlencore’s approach for Kazakhstanmining firm Kazzinc for $3.2bn.

 The Swiss-based commodities colos-sus last week revealed its plans as it

announced details of its hotly antici-pated London stock market listing.

 Almost 170 deals worth more than$1bn have been announced this year,  which is also the highest number year to date since 2007.

Deals in Asia, excluding Japan,have hit a combined $124.6bn so far,up 12 per cent on the previous recordof $95bn set in 2007.

 JP Morgan is the top bank adviseron global M&A deals, having beenconnected with $239.7bn worth of deals.

CAPITAL MARKETS▲

RBS to sell German and US debtRoyal Bank of Scotland is set to selllarge portfolios of real estate debt inGermany and the US, according toreports yesterday. The sale is part of itsdrive to dispose of non-core businesses.

RBS has already sold £1bn of real estateloans in Spain in the last year and closeto £1bn of loans in the UK. It will short-list private equity groups for a £1.6bndisposal of UK property loans this week.

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  ACTIVIST shareholder group Laxey Partners has played down the signifi-cance of a preliminary meeting with Alliance Trust ahead of the groups’sshareholders’ meeting, to be held on20 May.

Colin Kingsnorth, Laxey’s co-founder, told City A.M. last night: “It will only be a formal meeting to dis-cuss the results they posted last week.Change can only happen when share-holders vote for it to happen.”

He was responding to a move by Katherine Garrett–Cox, chief execu-tive of the UK’s largest investmenttrust, who said at the weekend thatshe would meet activist investors  before the general meeting, whenshareholders will vote on resolutionsput to the Board.

Kingsnorth proceeded to defendhimself from Garrett-Cox’s claimsthat none of the major shareholdershave publicly supported Laxey yet,predicting a big turnout on 20 May.

“She makes it sound like it’s only us, but that’s not true,” he said.

“All major investors will be sup-portive of a policy to narrow the dis-count, and ours is the best – and only – proposal put forward so far.”

Kingsnorth and Garrett–Cox have been exchanging blows for the past

months.

Laxey has publicly argued that thetrust is “underperforming”, and has been pushing for the trust to intro-duce a discount control mechanism(DCM) to buy back shares from asearly as December 2010.

Speaking to The Sunday Telegraph,Garrett–Cox dismissed Laxey’s criti-cism as “rubbish”, calling for share-holders to back the presentmanagement.

Kingsnorth has criticised Garrett-Cox’s pay and bonuses and she has

responded by questioning his remu-neration package.

“She has to justify it (her salary) infront of the people whose money she’s looking after. “We are a privatecompany, I am self employed and Ican tell you, we pay ourselves less thatshe pays herself,” he said.

Laxey pins itshopes on keyinvestor voteBY EUGENIOMONTESANO

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ANALYSIS l Alliance Trust

p

14 Apr16 Mar24 Feb4 Feb17 Jan

380

370

360

350

340

330

376.6015 Apr

RIM couldmake rivalNortel bid

PHONEMAKER Research In Motionmay attempt to top Google’s $900m(£550m) bid for Nortel Networks’ wireless technology patents, accord-ing to people familiar with theplans.

Nortel, which filed for bankruptcy protection in January 2009, was apioneer in wired and wireless net-  work technology and the assetsinclude some 6,000 patents andpatent applications for wireless, dataand optical networking, voice, inter-net, semiconductors and other tech-nologies.

Google established itself as a“stalking horse” for a suite of itspatents with a $900m bid earlier this

month.Google, which runs the world’s

most popular search engine, wantsthe Nortel patents to help it fight agrowing wireless patent war against well-armed mobile superpowers. Thecompany has pushed its Androidmobile phone software to the top of the wireless heap, attracting litiga-tion in the process.

Interest in the Nortel patents has  been robust, but a deal has beendelayed as Nortel’s liquidators andpotential buyers haggle over price.

 Analysts have said other expected bidders could include Chinese tele-com network company ZTE, Ericsson, which bought most of Nortel’s wire-less operations, and RPX, whichlicenses patents on behalf of memberclients for a fee.

BYHARRY BANKS

TELECOMS▲

 Laxey co-founder Colin Kingsnorth (above) and Katherine Garrett-Cox

News 17CITYA.M. 18 APRIL 2011

BEST OF THE BROKERS

To appear in Best of the Brokers email your research to [email protected]

ANALYSIS l SABMiller2300

2250

2200

2150

2050

1950

2100

17 Jan 26 Jan 4 Feb 15 Feb 24 Feb 7 Mar 16 Mar 25 Mar 5 Apr 14 Apr

p2250.50

15 AprSAB MILLERDeutsche Bank rates the brewer “hold” with atarget price of £23. The broker expects to seetwo per cent growth in organic lager volumeswhen the firms releases its annual updatetomorrow – a strong performance given thisyear’s late Easter dampening sales for the pastquarter and very strong sales this time lastyear – and a rebound in European sales.

ANALYSIS l Amlin

415415

405

400

390

375

395

385

380

17 Jan 26 Jan 4 Feb 15 Feb 24 Feb 7 Mar 16 Mar 25 Mar 5 A r 14 A r

p

412.50

15 Apr

AMLIN

RBS rates the insurer “buy” and has raised itstarget price by 10p to 460p. The broker haslowered its full-year pre-tax profit forecast by66 per cent to £107.1m, following a substantialhit from the Australian floods, New Zealandearthquake and Japanese disaster, but expectshigher sales in the longer-term due to anincreased “fear factor” in the marketplace.

ANALYSIS l Carphone Warehouse Group430

420

410

400

380

350

390

370

360

17 Jan 26 Jan 4 Feb 15 Feb 24 Feb 7 Mar 16 Mar 25 Mar 5 Apr 14 Apr

p

400.0015 Apr

CARPHONE WAREHOUSECitigroup rates the retailer “buy / medium risk”with a target price of 500p. Carphone remainsthe broker’s top pick for the sector following aninvestor day with Best Buy Mobile, which repre-sents over 50 per cent of the firm’s earnings.Best Buy plans to open 800 new standalonestores in the next five years, which the brokerthinks will drive growth at the group.

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Price of mangoes shows how inflation is biting

I finished work the other eveningand was in the mood for a mangosalad. So, full of anticipation, Istopped by my local grocers only to bemet by a horrible sign. Mangoes:£2.40. Each. What? Since when? Sinceinflation started spiralling out of con-

trol, that is.Chinese price rises are the latest big

figure to spook us, with inflation jumping to 32-month highs at 5.4 percent in March. As a viewer rightly 

pointed out the other day, we now fol-low Chinese inflation much moreclosely than US inflation.

  The Beijing authorities have beenputting a lot of effort into coolingdown their economy’s still rapidexpansion. China is the second-largestconsumer of oil, but with its stronggrowth story continuing, Beijing may  be forced to hike interest rates again toattempt to slow consumption just a lit-tle bit more. Yesterday, the Chinesecentral bank announced that reserveratios will rise 0.5 points from 21 April,

taking the requirement to a new record for big institutions.

But it’s not just China. Despite theReserve Bank of India having raisedrates eight times since March 2010,

they may have to hit the marketsagain, this time with a bold 0.5 percent rate hike in early May to combatinflation of nearly nine per cent.

In the Eurozone, inflation is at afresh 29-month high of 2.7 per cent, with a record increase in March. Andin Britain, although March showed afall in CPI inflation to four per cent,economists still think it will rise overthe next few months, maybe even hit-ting the five per cent mark within the year. In the US, while prices still are onan upward trend, analysts think sub-

dued labour costs will keep a lid oninflation. There the issue insteadseems to be centered on what theFederal Reserve should do once its$600bn asset-buying scheme comes to

an end in June, and how the market  will react to having stimulus with-drawn.

EURO CURRENCY WOESDo keep your eyes on the currency markets. We have become immune toEuropean debt worries, but with its lat-est downgrade, Moody’s now hasIreland below the levels assigned by  both Fitch and Standard & Poor’s andthat is putting a bit of pressure on anotherwise resilient euro.

More worrying, short-dated Greek 

  bond yields have been spiking torecord highs despite the authoritiesdenying that an imminent debtrestructuring was on the cards.

 This has also been adding to some

nervous euro trades. But, for now, thecurrency trend is still intact.Currency analysts tell me they think 

the euro will continue to be supportedagainst sterling on expectations thatthe European Central Bank will hikerates before the Bank of England. TheUS Fed doesn’t seem to be in a hurry tohike rates either, helping the weak dol-lar story stay intact. But it is definitely a case of watch this space.

 Louisa Bojesen co-anchors European Closing  Bell weekdays on CNBC.Twitter: @louisabojesen

CNBC COMMENT

LOUISA BOJESEN

News18 CITYA.M. 18 APRIL 2011

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FACEBOOK, the world’s most popularsocial networking site, is preparing toroll out a new wave of highly targetedadverts using data uploaded onto itsusers’ pages.

 The site has been testing softwarethat allows ads to read in real-timeinformation uploaded onto statusupdates and wall posts.

Facebook is home to unprecedent-ed volumes of information on itsusers, including their “likes” anddetailed demographic data.

  Analysts say this could makeFacebook one of the most powerfulmarketing tools ever created, withads even more tailored to its usersthan those featured on rival Google.

 The California-based firm’s ad rev-enue is understood to have doubledto $2bn (£1.2bn) in 2010, and experts

say it could double again this year.Facebook has been valued at a stag-

gering $50bn after Goldman placed anumber of its privately held shares.

It is seen as the most powerful of acrop of unlisted technology firms tak-ing Silicon Valley by storm.

Microblogging site Twitter is saidto be a possible takeover target of Facebook, with an astonishing $10bnprice-tag being discussed. And onlinedeal site Groupon last year rejected a$6bn bid from Google.

Meanwhile, the never-ending story over who really owns Facebook hastaken yet another twist, with convict-ed felon Paul Ceglia amending hisclaim that he should rightfully ownhalf of the company.

Ceglia, who last year filed a lawsuitclaiming he has emails provingZuckerberg owes him 50 per cent of the business. A lawyer for Facebook dismissed the claim as “ridiculous”.

Facebook may

roll out newtargeted adsBY STEVE DINNEEN

TECHNOLOGY▲

NEWS | IN BRIEF

Kuwait billionaire al-Kharafi diesEgypt Kuwait Holding’s stock tumbled9.7 per cent yesterday after its chair-

man, Kuwaiti billionaire Nasser al-Kharafi, died while on a trip to Cairo.Kuwait’s state news agency KUNA saidyesterday Kharafi had died after suffer-ing a heart attack. An earlier reportfrom Al Arabiya television said he diedon Saturday.

Tokyo Electric Power deadlineUS Secretary of State Hillary Clintonyesterday urged Japan to remain activeon the world stage and pledged supportfor Washington's key ally in East Asia asthe operator of a stricken nuclear plantfinally set out a timeline to shut it down.Tokyo Electric Power Co. (TEPCO) said ithoped to achieve a cold shutdown of theplant that was crippled in the March 11quake and tsunami –effectively makingthe reactors safe and stable –within sixto nine months. The death toll from thequake and tsunami is now over 13,000.

Russia looks to alter web lawsRussia is looking to the experience of other countries, including China, to “reg-ulate” internet use, though Moscow hasno plans to broaden web censorship, agovernment spokesman said. Weeksafter hacker attacks temporarily closeddown the country’s most popular blogsite, a state tender calling for researchinto “foreign experience in regulating”the internet has revived fears thatauthorities plan to clamp down on inter-net freedoms ahead of 2012 presidentialelections.

 Just weeks after the launch of Nintendo’s top-selling  3DS console (above), sources say the Japanese firm is preparing to unveil a follow-up to its Wii (left) at the E3 event in June. It may feature an HD touch- screen display on its control pad. Picture: GETTY 

NEW WII CONSOLE LIKELY

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News 19CITYA.M. 18 APRIL 2011 WORDS BY ALISON LOCK

The man who’slocking hornswith indecisiveEU regulatorsAviva chief executive Andrew Moss is tired of waiting for clarity on Solvency II. He’d ratherfocus on his company’s plans for the future.

MENTION Brussels to any senior London-

 based insurer and you will always get thesame reaction: anger and exasperation. With just over 18 months to go before theintroduction of Solvency II, the insuranceindustry’s equivalent of the new Basel III  banking rules, European regulators havestill not produced a framework that proper-ly reflects the business practices of realcompanies. In other words, it’s chaos.

Unsurprisingly, Andrew Moss, chief exec-utive of Aviva, Britain’s second largestinsurer, is not exactly happy about thiseither. While the bureaucrats dither, indus-try grandees such as Moss are starting tokick back at the limbo in which it leavesthem. “We’ve been talking about this forfive or six years and frankly it’s an uncer-tainty that the industry can do without,”Moss tells City A.M. “We need certainty toemerge so we can all move forward and geton with our lives.”

 Just days before we meet, Europe’s fourleading insurance representative bodiespublished a stark warning to EU commis-sioner Michel Barnier that the reforms  were misjudged and their concerns were being ignored.

Moss is right behind them. “The industry – quite rightly in my view – has decidedthat now is the time to be extremely forth-right in relation to this issue,” he says. “Theinsurance industry in Europe has comethrough the biggest financial crisis thatanyone can remember without any signifi-cant failures. That’s a very significant stresstest, which argues that the industry doesnot need significant amounts of new capi-tal. And the industry is not going to stand by and see more capital required in compa-nies which in the end will only be a costthat is passed on to consumers.”

 A hefty burden of regulation looks set to be a major legacy of the financial crisis –

and it will have serious consequences for

firms such as Aviva, as well as to the mem-  bers of the public who will have to pay higher prices for financial services.

KPMG estimates that insurers globally already bear $25bn (£15.3bn) of additionalannual costs from complying with differ-ing regulatory regimes around the world.

 Worryingly, Moss believes the world has become “less global” than five years ago, asregulation has toughened in most of itsmarkets. It means Aviva has to think harderabout where it allocates resources.

“If you look at the way governments andregulators have reacted to the financial cri-sis, you will find that they actually they have become slightly more nationalistic,slightly more protectionist. That really affects highly regulated businesses likeinsurance,” he says.

 And while Aviva’s financial position hasimproved drastically – profits after tax wereup 44 per cent at £1.9bn in 2010 – the crisishas certainly left its mark on the business.Since 2009, Moss has pulled Aviva away from its previous slightly unfocused expan-sion strategy that grew it to a sprawling 30-country empire. It closed its Australian business, announced its withdrawal from Taiwan and floated just over 40 per cent of its Dutch arm, Delta Lloyd.

 Then, last November, Moss decided to gofurther and focus Aviva on just 12 of itsremaining 27 insurance markets. It willnow stay only where it makes at least$100m annual profit, a 12 per cent or high-er return on capital or has a business val-ued at $1bn or more.

“We took a long hard look at the world,really, in early 2010, and said it’s a differentplace to what it was three years ago,” Mosssays. “Our customers are buying differentproducts, they’re looking more for guaran-teed products. Economies which had beengrowing steadily across the world havediverged and different places are growing

at different rates.”It was a tough call – Aviva’s non-core ter-ritories now include swathes of easternEurope as well as Germany, theNetherlands, and Asian markets such asMalaysia, Singapore and South Korea. Buthe’s serious: last week Aviva cut another 15per cent from its Delta Lloyd stake to cedemajority control after 38 years in theNetherlands. The deal raised £381m for  Aviva, boosting its cash position andenhancing its flexibility. Delta Lloyd is a biginvestor in corporate bonds and mortgageloans, so the disposal will make the Britishinsurer less vulnerable to credit risk, ana-lysts said.

“There were certain businesses where wesimply faced up to the fact that they werenever going to make a real difference to ouroverall profitability as a company,” Mosssaid. “Concentrating on our main markets– that we believe is absolutely the key tosuccess for us.”

  Aviva’s global strategy may be set, but what about the UK? Its business here is a

strange beast, a composite of life and pen-sions but also non-life personal lines suchas motor, household and small business.

  The rumour mill has repeatedly ques-tioned whether Aviva ought to sell parts of the business. The talk recently centred on  whether roadside rescue business RAC isup for sale, while last year local insurerRoyal & Sun Alliance (RSA) proposed buy-ing chunks of its non-life book.

  Aviva rebuffed RSA’s offer in part because the £5bn offer price was far lowerthan the £8bn value Aviva placed on it, butalso because the sale would have left Aviva with all pension liabilities and £750m of hybrid debt.

One of Moss’ major achievements of 2010has been to entirely eliminate the £1.7bnpension deficit, and announce a three-yearplan to fully repay the debt.

Does this mean a sale of its non-life armto RSA could be back on the cards? Apparently not. “We love being in both thegeneral and life insurance business so wehave no plans to change that,” Moss says.“We’re the only company that writes rightacross the piece so I think we have a cross-selling opportunity that nobody else has.”

But cross selling has been traditionally tricky to pull off, even if you insure 19mpeople in the UK, and Moss knows it.

“Historically that has been difficult to

make work but I think we’re beginning tosee signs with the brand and the way we’vepromoted the brand that we may benefitfrom that. So over the next couple of yearsthat’s our big challenge but I think our bigopportunity as well,” he says.

 The other interesting target for a sale isits US life and pensions business, acquiredin 2006. Moss admitted in November that it was not worth its original price – and saidit had little appetite to invest further in themarket. Analysts suggest it could be sold off as soon as its value rises, though Moss isn’tsaying.

“We more than doubled profits in the US business in 2010 so we’re focused in 2011on further increasing that profitability,” hesays. “We think there’s more to come.”

Moss is a careful talker and thinker, as you’d expect from an ex-auditor whose firstdegree was in law, and he’s not keen to dis-cuss difficulties in the business. Standard &Poor’s’ decision to downgrade Aviva’s

Ireland business, in response to the declin-ing quality of its sovereign debt, is “a coun-

try issue”, I’m curtly told. And while Aviva has avoided the kind of 

spectacular investor bust-up seen at arch-rival the Prudential (over trying to buy AIA last year), Aviva’s shareholders were said to be upset at the idea that former LloydsBanking Group CEO Eric Daniels wasadded to a shortlist to replace its chairmanColin Sharman.

Moss doesn’t want to talk about it.“There’s no new news on that and we willcontinue to find the right person,” he says.  And the relationship with shareholdersafter this? “We always stay close to ourshareholders on these issues.”

He’s more forthcoming on what he seesas one of Aviva’s key roles – encouraginggreater take-up of pensions and tacklingthe chronically low adult savings rates inthe UK. This campaign has seen Aviva winplaudits in some circles in Westminster, where there is a growing realisation thatthe UK faces a crisis.

Moss says in European markets such asFrance people save more than twice asmuch as in the UK. They are aided by sup-port such as tax incentives –and he argues,persuasively, that more are needed here.

“While we understand at the momentthat the government’s priority is on reduc-ing the budget deficit, quite rightly so, Ithink we have to look through that and say,

over time, if private individuals don’t pro-  vide for themselves in retirement thensome of that burden will fall on govern-ment, so it makes sense for the governmentto take that long term view.”

Moss’ vision for the company is clear –now all he’s waiting for is a nod from theregulators that he’ll be able to realise it. Letus hope Brussels gets its act together soon.

Age: 53

Work: Andrew Moss first trained as anaccountant at Coopers & Lybrand (nowpart of PwC).He subsequently became a vice presidentat Citibank (now Citigroup); head of groupasset and liability management at HSBC in1997, then HSBC’s chief financial officerfor investment banking; finance directorat Lloyd’s of London; Aviva’s finance direc-tor in 2004 and then was appointed chief executive in July 2007, a position whichhe retains today

Education: read law at Oxford University

Hobbies: Golf, rugby, gardening

CV | ANDREW MOSS

Andrew Moss inAviva’s London headoffice, in the centre of the City’s insurancehub close toLeadenhall Market

Picture: 

Micha Theiner

 /City A.M.

“We took along hard lookat the worldin early 2010,and said it’s adifferentplace to whatit was threeyears ago.”

ANALYSIS l Aviva

p

17 Jan 4 Feb 24 Feb 7 Mar 25 Mar 14 Apr

480

470

460

450

440

430

420

410

434.9015 Apr

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News20 CITYA.M. 18 APRIL 2011

 WALL STREET WEEK AHEAD

ALTHOUGH clearly nervousaround the psychologically signif-icant 6,000 barrier, London’s bluechip index looks set to build on

Friday’s gains, with defensive stocks pro- viding the momentum.

In 24-hour trading, GFT is forecastingthe UK index to open up 20 points fromlast week’s close, at around 6,016. TheGerman DAX is quoted to open up 27points at 7,205 and the French CAC iscalled up 15 points at 3,989.

Following Goldman Sachs’ sugges-tion that the UK tobacco sector is ripefor consolidation, the M&A rumour millis in top gear, with British American Tobacco and Imperial Tobacco likely to benefit the most from the speculation.

Broad direction for the rest of the hol-iday-shortened week will come fromearnings.

In Europe, we have Tesco tomorrow and Nokia – preparing to start its part-nership with Microsoft – on Thursday,and from the US there are first-quarterresults due out from the financial giantsCitigroup, Wells Fargo, Goldmans andMorgan Stanley –the sector is generally expected to release weaker profits sothere is surprise potential to theupside – as well as telecoms heavy-

 weights AT&T and Verizon.So far the US results have been largely 

disappointing, including those fromGoogle and Bank of America, yet theDow managed to shrug that off onFriday and rally off its lows for the week – which should also add to a posi-tive lead for European stocks today.

 Trading volumes on the underlyingexchanges could start to thin out as the week progresses, ahead of the approach-ing double bank holiday weekends,although that could just be sufficient tolet the UK index drift higher, targetingthe next resistance level formingaround 6,050. Martin Slaney is director of GFT’s global deal- ing operations

MARTINONTHE MARKETS

Earnings could make for a bumpy ride in US stocks this week if more key companies undershootexpectations, possibly causing a

spike in volatility.Disappointments from Alcoa,

Google and others in the f irst week of earnings have dampened some of the

enthusiasm about results, ensuring

that eyes will be glued to reports inthe coming days. These include top technology and

financial company results, includingYahoo, Intel, IBM, Texas Instruments,Goldman Sachs and Citigroup. This blitz of numbers will come during aholiday-shortened week. US f inancial

markets will close on Good Friday.

Market watchers also will be anx-ious to hear how much tech compa-nies may have been affected by thedisaster in Japan.

“We’ve all been lulled to sleep herelately. This earnings season will hope-fully be a telling point to try to givepeople conviction to go one way or

the other,” said Mike Gibbs, manag-

ing director at Morgan Keegan,Memphis. “There are potential landmines out there that could create a bit more volatile trading,” he said.

 The CBOE Volatility Index, a barom-eter of investor anxiety known as the VIX, briefly fell on Friday to its lowestlevel since July 2007. It ended at 15.32,

  well below its mid-March high of 

31.28.Others agreed that further disap-pointments could stir up volatility.

For the week, the Dow Jones indus-trial average slipped 0.3 per cent,  while the Standard & Poor’s 500Index and the Nasdaq CompositeIndex each shed 0.6 per cent.

MARTIN SLANEY

7,600

7,000

6,800

6,600

6,400

7,200

7,400

ANALYSIS l Dax Index

26 Jan 15 Feb 7 Mar 25 Mar 14 Apr

7,178.2915 Apr

6,100

5,800

5,700

5,600

5,500

5,900

6,000

ANALYSIS l FTSE 100 Index

26 Jan 15 Feb 7 Mar 25 Mar 14 Apr

5,996.0115 Apr

 JOHNSON & Johnson is in talks to buy Swiss medical device manufacturerSynthes, the world’s largest maker of surgical implants to treat bone frac-tures and spinal injuries, for about$20bn (£12.2bn).

Synthes, based in West Chester,Pennsylvania (US), trades on the SwissExchange. With its current marketcapitalisation of $18.4bn (£11.2bn),the deal would be the largest acquisi-tion ever made by J&J in its 125-yearhistory, and it would allow the  American pharmaceutical company to further develop its medical devicesdivision.

  J&J, already the world’s biggest

maker of artificial hips, saw its pros-thesis segment achieve sales of $24.6bn (£15bn) in 2010, representingan increase of 4.4 per cent over 2009.

 The medical devices division now accounts for 40 per cent of J&J’s$61.6bn (£37.7bn) total sales, eclipsingthe company’s pharmaceutical busi-ness, historically its largest segment.

 The deal, which was first reported by the Wall Street Journal on Friday,is still in its preliminary stages andtalks have been described as “fragile”, with J&J spokesman Bill Price refus-ing to comment “on speculations.”

J&J in talks tobuy SynthesBYEUGENIOMONTESANO

PHARMACEUTICALS▲

S a l e s 

$ 6 1.6 b n  P r o f i t s

 $ 1 6. 9 4 7 mSYNTHES PRODUCTSl Spine implants (SynFrame™, SynCage™, translaminar facet screws)

l Cranio-Maxillofacial implants

l Trauma implants

lBiomaterials (bone substitutes and bioresorbable materials)

P r o f i t s 

$ 9 0 7 m 

 S a l e s

 $ 3. 6 8 7 b n

ANALYSIS l Synthes

CHF

3 Feb 23 Feb 14 Mar 1 Apr

140

136

132

128

124

120

138.7015 Apr

FTSE to break through 6,000 on M&A rumours

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Wealth Management | Spread Betting22 CITYA.M. 18 APRIL 2011

FOR some, trading is an academic endeavour.For others, it is a daily battle they relish andlook forward to. When I started out, I thoughtit was the best job in the world. Today, I have

to admit I am sometimes sick of trading. I don’tknow what else I would do, but when I find myself feeling sick of it, I have to leave it alone for a coupleof days. That is usually enough to get my hungerback.

Not everyone in the industry trades. You learnthat when you go on the lecture circuit. I have theadvantage (and sometimes disadvantage) that I

trade publicly, and my results are visible to every-one. However, I know of two world famous tradingauthors who don’t trade at all. I wonder why theydon’t. To write about trading, you need to have feltthe pains of being wrong and the joy of riding awinner.

A SIMPLE SUCCESS STORYAs this series of articles draws to an end, with justone more column to come this Wednesday, I wantto tell you about a world famous trader named W.D. Gann. He wrote many courses on trading, someof which were exceptionally esoteric in content.Gann was supposedly a very clever man, so it cameas no surprise to me that the man who made hismillions selling forecasts to people actually madehis money from a remarkably simple tradingmethod.

My friend and trading partner David Paul oncespent a whole summer at the British Library,researching past wheat and beans prices, andtracking Gann’s trades to get to the nitty gritty of his actual trading strategy. His conclusion wasstartling. He told me that “Gann simply tradeddouble tops and lows in the direction of the dailytrend, nothing more, nothing less”. After eightweeks in the archives of the library he wasadamant that what Gann wrote in his courses andwhat he traded were two very different things.Maybe the lesson for all of us is to keep things assimple as possible.

Happy trading.The views and comments in this article are not 

the views of InterTrader.com. The provision of thisinformation should not be construed in any circum-

 stances as a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument.

SIMPLICITY IS

SOMETIMES A

TRADER’S ALLY

TOM HOUGAARDCONSULTING ANALYST, INTERTRADER

Average True Range is a useful tool in the box, writes Philip Salter

TO KEEP out of the red, traders needto watch out for market volatility. Average True Range (ATR) is a handy   weapon in the trader’s arsenal,

helping to determine where to set goodstop losses.

  ATR is simply the average difference between highs and lows over a user speci-fied period, explains Malcolm Pryor of  www.spreadbettingcentral.co.uk,although he adds that in practice it isslightly more complicated, with adjust-ments needing to be made for gaps andprevious averages. ATR was first described  by trading legend Welles Wilder in his1978 landmark book, New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems. Another livinglegend, “Prince of the Pit” Richard Dennis,also uses ATR, as do his “turtles,” the noto-rious novices Dennis successfully trainedfrom scratch.

For Manoj Ladwa of ETX Capital, ATR isan excellent measure of volatility becauseit takes into account the daily range of theunderlying asset. It is mainly “used to aidstop placement rather than as a tool on itsown,” which “can help the trader be con-sistent in stop placement with respect tothe volatility of the instrument,” says

Pryor. The first thing that a trader needsto decide is the ATR period they are goingto measure. Ladwa says, “traders should judge the period measured depending onhow sensitive they want it. But if the fig-ure is too low, readings will be erratic.”

“For trades expected to last six months,one might select three times the daily   ATR, while for trades expected to last between two and 20 days I personally liketo use one time the highest ATR readingof the last six months,” says Pryor.“Typically traders look at ATR values andset stops from two to four times the ATR  value,” says Ian O’Sullivan of Spread Co. The multiple used depends on the lengthof trade, the risk profile of the trader andtheir objective.

O’Sullivan warns that ATR “is not aleading indicator sending signals aboutpotential market direction, it just gaugesprice volatility.” Pryor suggests that forpractical trading strategies trying toexploit changes in volatility, BollingerBands are more useful. Ladwa notes “read-ings can vary widely day to day,” so headvises that position traders adjust the ATR once a week and for day traders tonote the value at the start of the day. As

 with all moving day averages, Pryor pointsout that it has the minor weakness of  being a lagging indicator. To manage thisproblem he suggests not selecting periodsthat are too large.

  Without volatility, traders cannottrade; too much and they can get easily stopped out. ATR helps prevent tradersturning turtle when the market watersare choppy.

Use ATR in setting stops

ANALYSIS l FTSE 100 index and its ATR

Source: Sharescope

6,100

6,000

5,900

5,800

5,700

5,600

6,100

6,000

5,900

5,800

5,700

5,600

14/10/10 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar 14/4/11

1 day bars FTSE 100 Index

80

60

10 Avg.True range (daily) 80

60

Follow the turtles to avoid the soup

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E

ARNINGS get into full swing

this week. Tomorrow seesretail giant Tesco reportingits prelims. Most retail

stocks have had it hard recently,with profit warnings being issuedleft right and centre, but in the lastcouple of weeks buyers have beenattracted back into these stocks,believing the weakness presents abuying opportunity. CapitalSpreads quotes 405.6p-406.3p.

Burberry’s latest update, cov-

Wealth Management | Spread Betting 23CITYA.M. 18 APRIL 2011

THE WEEK AHEAD in association with

COMPANY NEWS

lOn Tuesday, RBS will hold its AGM.

The Treasury, on behalf of British taxpay-ers, still owns the majority of its shares.

l Tesco will report on Tuesday. Every lit-tle helps. Fellow FTSE 100 companiesReed Elsevier and Hargreaves Lansdownwill be posting first quarter and thirdquarter results respectively. It’s a busyweek for Reed Elsevier, with its AGM onWednesday.

lOn Wednesday, Reckitt Benckiser willrelease first quarter results. The produc-ers of Vanish, Clearasil and Finish willhope to clean up.

lAlso on Wednesday, BHP Billiton willannounce its third quarter results. It willbe hoping to unearth strong results.

l Thursday will see Anglo Americanhold its AGM and release its first quarterresults. The company was started in

1917 with £1m of capital, chiefly fromUK and US sources, hence the name.

ECONOMICS NEWS

lOn Monday, the European Commission

will release statistics on the level of opti-mism consumers have about the per-formance of the Eurozone economy forApril. Could make for depressing reading.

lAsking prices are up 1.7 per cent, saysRightmove’s UK House Prices Index forApril, out today. Asking prices were up0.8 per cent in March, but remember --asking isn’t selling. New listings were up5 per cent year-on-year but still down 26per cent on pre-crunch levels.

lOn Wednesday, the Bank of Englandwill release the MPC minutes for April.Any change in the voting pattern will putthe cat among the pigeons for tradersand commentators alike.

lOn Friday, the Eurozone business con-fidence indicator survey for April will bereleased. Last month it remainedunchanged at 6.6 per cent. Members of 

the monetary union will be hoping thesefigures remain positive.

THE TIPSTER

TESCO VALUE BAGS,DESIGNER HANDBAGSAND A CASE FOR BEER

Investors seek refuge in the yellowmetal in the face of downgraded bondsand spiking yields, writes Craig Drake

Golden touch as themarkets shy from

euro debt instability

Forex & CFD Trading.

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FOLLOWING the news of spikingIrish and Greek bond yields thereare growing fears that at leastsome periphery Eurozone coun-

tries will have to restructure theirdebt. Spread betters looking to take aposition on the fortunes of Irelandand Greece, as well as their fellow periphery nations, should look to goldas an (inverse) proxy for the European

sovereign debt market. With such shakiness in the sover-

eign sphere – combined with continu-ing weakness in the US dollar andrising inflationary pressures – goldand silver have been driven to new highs. On Friday, gold hit an all timerecord of $1,480 and silver a 31 yearhigh above $42. Their continued safehaven and inflation hedge positionshould see them continuing to rise – itis a spectacle that would have delight-ed Auric Goldfinger, the bombasticmegalomaniac character (pictured) inthe eponymous James Bond film.

Last week saw Moody’s Ireland sov-ereign debt rating cut another twonotches to Baa3, while the ratingsagency maintained its outlook as neg-ative. With this just one notch above junk status, Ireland will be nervously eyeing the outcome of the solvency tests, required by the EuropeanStabilisation Mechanism for any future bail out.

  The request for a bailout fromPortugal at least ended the uncertain-ty of when they would crack, but attention has now beenturned to the otherMediterranean economies.Greek bond yields rose to 13.2 percent and 10 year Spanish bondsunderperformed as investors took profit from last month’s rally aheadof next week’s bond auction.

  According to Alejandro Zambrano,market strategist at FXCM, we will seeliquidity premiums in the coming weeks in the periphery Eurozone debtmarket: “Italian and Spanish yieldscontinue to widen against German yields, which is weighing on the euro.  We now expect the Spanish govern-ment to pay a premium of 181 basispoints from Friday’s 141 within a few 

 weeks. We expect the Italian govern-ment to pay a premium of 150 basispoints compared with the current 110– if we are right in our forecasts aboutthe Italian yields, then the premium will have tripled.”

European sovereign debt fears areunlikely to disappear at any pointsoon and gold will retain its status as ahaven commodity.

Spread bet-ters shouldcontinue touse gold andsilver to takea position onthe fortunesof theEuropean sov-ereign debtmarket.

ering the third quarter to 31December, posted underlyinggrowth of well over 30 per cent.Its shares have held recentlynear all-time highs around £12,but is supported by a superstrong trendline going back toJanuary 2009. Any pullbacks tothe trendline, currently around£11, should be used as a buyingopportunity. Spread Co offers

1,169.1p-1,171.9p.Home Retail, the companybehind both Argos andHomebase, has full year resultscoming up this week. But giventhe sector as a whole continuesto struggle, the outlook is farfrom upbeat. Last month’s earn-ings guidance was below ana-lysts’ expectations and as theimpacts of elevated inflation andincreases in VAT take their toll,

it’s difficult to see any quickrecovery on the cards. However,the declines in the share priceover the last 18 months couldmean there is little left on thedownside. Current IG Indexprice is 206.8p-207.6p.

SAB Miller will be worthkeeping an eye on this week as itreports its fourth quarter trad-ing update. It recently stated

that it forecasts huge growth inAfrica, which helped the sharessurge around 10 per cent, to£22.25, at the end of March.Since then the shares have beenconsolidating in a possible con-tinuation flag formation, whichif it breaks out to the upsidecould see them rally as far as£24.50. Spread Co quotes2,246.8p-2,252.2p.

Philip Salter

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1. Goodwood Hotel, Sussex

THE summer season at theGoodwood Estate seems to get bigger and more fashionable with

each passing year, so no surprise thatthe estate’s hotel – expanded from aformer coaching inn, and now ownedand managed by the estate itself – has become a suitably stylish place to stay.  After refurbishing a slew of its 91rooms last year, another 25 rooms andsuites have had a thorough revampingthis year, ensuring the GoodwoodHotel is a whole lot more than meredigs for motoring and horse racingfans attending the big summer events.

Nevertheless, those activities – plusgolf and aviation (as well as thefamous motor circuit and horse track,the estate includes two golf coursesand an aerodrome) – contribute sub-stantially to the charm and characterof the place. The interiors have all the wit and charm you’d expect of some- where dedicated to the thoroughly old-fashioned and decadent pleasures of British sporting life, and as a guest youget temporary membership of therespective clubs for each sportingactivity. That includes use of the plush  Waterbeach health club and theKennels, the impeccably-appointed

clubhouse for the various clubs.The newly refurbished Signature Roomsstart from £135 per room per night includ- ing a Full English breakfast. www.good- wood.com/hotel

2. Lime Wood, Hampshire

SPECTACULAR in its sense of luxu-ry but somehow unassuming  with it, Lime Wood is just a

dreamy place to escape to. The renovat-ed Regency house sits on the crest of ahill in the New Forest National Park,hidden away at the end of a windingdrive and surrounded by a scatteringof out-buildings housing several of its33 gorgeous-barely-does-justice rooms.

 With the emphasis all on pure relax-ation – a warren of fabulous sittingrooms mean you can turn the act of 

lounging into a high art form – a world-class spa was essential here, and

Fancy a spring weekend away? Timothy Barber finds that old buildings, modernaspirations and clever design are being combined in ever more luxurious ways

Head out of London to the

new generation of old hotels

24 CITYA.M. 18 APRIL 2011

Lifestyle | Travel

In association with

in December, a year after the hotel’slaunch, it got one. The Herb House (asthe spa is called) is the sort of thing  you’d expect to find in the Maldivesrather than Hampshire, jam-packed with treatment rooms, pools, a caldar-ium, a mud house, sun decks and evenmeditation areas.

  Throw in a couple of first-raterestaurants, suave David Collins interi-ors and the kind of attention to detailthat you really only notice when it’smissing, and you’ve got a place thattakes rural comfort to a new level. Rooms from £245 per night.www.limewoodhotel.co.uk

3.The Cornwall Hotel Spa &Estate, Cornwall

THE Cornwall takes up 43-acres at

the foot of a pretty, forest-cov-ered hillside five miles from theEden Project. At its heart is a white-stuccoed Victorian manor house thatlay derelict for decades. Rather thanmerely renovating the house, thedevelopers have shown considerable vision in turning the property into amulti-purpose hotel estate offeringdifferent levels of accommodation.

  The manor house contains nine

1

2

GRAND old mansions, it’s obvi-ous to say, make terrific hotels.History, character, beauty, loca-tion – they’ve got ‘em, and

tourists want ‘em. However, the for-mula has become more than a littlestaid in a few places, and a bit of shak-ing up is always welcome.

It was the opening of Hampshire’sLime Wood a year and a half ago that

announced a new form of Englishout-of-town luxury, one in whichinformality and easy-going charm gohand in hand with the sybaritic pleas-ures of the most sumptuous hotel.

  A flurry of further openings andrefurbishments are showing thatrambling old houses can still repre-sent the cutting edge of comfort.

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EASTER IN DUBROVNIK...If you’re still looking forsomewhere to escapeover this weekend’sEaster holidays,

Dubrovnik SunGardens, an exten-sive resort over-looking theAdriatic from theancient Croatiancoast, may have

 just the package.The resort enjoys along sweep of beach(possibly a bit cold for adip just yet), a top gradeAnne Semonin spa, its ownpromenade of market shops and noless than 13 restaurants, plus a privateferry to the walled city of Dubrovnikold town. A three day package from 22-25 or 23-26 April, including Easter dinner and access to the spa, starts from €255 per person.www.dubrovnikgardens.com 

...OR IN MYKONOSAlternatively, you can head

for the Greek island of Mykonos, where the

luxurious Grace

hotel is situated ona quiet hillside andpresents some-thing of a havenfrom the livelinessof Mykonos town.Temperatures are

already in the high20s here, which

means pool-sidelounging and sunny

cocktails are the order of the day. Activities that can be

arranged include yacht hires, helicopterisland tours, horseback riding to Fokosbeach, jeep safaris and scuba diving.The Easter package comprises three nights in a deluxe room, with free trans- fers, Easter dinner and champagne breakfast, and costs from £517.www.mykonosgrace.com 

CITYA.M. 18 APRIL 2011SHEEKEY’SOYSTER BARSEE TOMORROW’SRESTAURANT PAGE

25

LONGUEVILLE MANORLongueville Road |St. Saviour | Jersey| JE2 7WF

A beautiful 13th Century Norman Manor House,Longueville Manor comes with a Condé NastJohansens seal of approval – and it’s easy to seewhy. This luxurious stay is set in enchanting groundswith sumptuous boutique rooms. The restaurantboasts three AA Rosettes and when the Jersey sunhots up, the outdoor swimming pool is the ultimateplace to unwind.

THE AUBERGEIpswich Road | Yaxley | IP23 8BZThe Auberge is a true gem in the North Suffolk

countryside, mid-way between Ipswich and Norwich.The 11 rooms feature traditional open beams combinedwith elegant and stylish furnishings, whilst the fourposter room is particularly romantic. And all thischarm is carried through to the ambient restaurantwith its two AA Rosettes. The Fruits de Mer here is areal treat.

THE KINGS HEADMain Road | Hursley | Winchester | SO21 2JW

Enjoy the warmest of welcomes at this gorgeousGeorgian coaching inn. The Kings Head is located in thehistoric village of Hursley and oozes real character andatmosphere. Each room is individually designed,boasting antique furnishings and feature fireplaces,and food lovers will enjoy the tasty seasonal menuserved in the cosy pub and restaurant.

In association with

THINK ROOMS...

To book your stay at any of these fabulous hotels, or to discover a whole world of otheraccommodation possibilities, visit LateRooms.com or call 0161 831 3894.

with

TRAVEL NOTES | by Timothy Barber

43

charming and rather sumptuousrooms and suites, while secreted inthe trees behind is a newly-built, sym-pathetically-designed complex of 56rooms (extra points scored for thesouth-facing balconies).

Beyond this is a series of self-cater-ing “woodland homes” – eco-friend-ly lodges with two to three

  bedrooms, making theCornwall a very strongfamily option (theselodges are also forsale as holiday homes that thehotel can lease out

on the owners’ behalf). The focal point of 

the tremendous spais a glorious, curvinginfinity pool that opensonto the lawns in thesummer months.

 Hotel rates from £109 per room includ- ing breakfast. www.thecornwall.com

4. Montpelier Chapter, Cheltenham

FROM the front, the MontpellierChapter looks like one more gen-teel Regency mansion conver-sion. Once you go inside,

however, it gets more inter-esting. Architect Ken

Shuttleworth – whohad a major hand

in the design of the Gherkin – hasadded a crescent-shaped modern

 wing and colour-filled courtyardonto the back,

giving you theoption of staying in

the cosy house prop-er or in more modern,

cutting-edge surround-ings. I’d recommend the light

and airy rooms in the modern wingthat feel larger than they are (andthey’re not small) thanks to someingenious space usage. There’s a live-ly restaurant with it’s own in-door

  barbecue, and a highly-agreeablelibrary area to retire to later.

It’s a good place to stay for theCheltenham Jazz Festival later thismonth too – Jamie Cullum fansshould snap up a two-night package

 which includes top-tier tickets for hissold-out concert on Sunday 1 May.

 Jamie Cullum package from £295.

  Normal rooms from £125 per night.www.themontpellierchapterhotel.com

5. The Greenway, Cotswolds

THE Greenway is the essence of rural enchantment: an ivy-cov-ered Elizabethan mansion, all

pointy gables and Tudor chimneys, with the Cotswold hills folding away  behind. A multi-million pound renova-tion has brought the old place bangup to date, the final element of whichlaunched this weekend – the conver-sion of the stable block into six smart

  bedrooms (adding to the 11 in themain house), and a lavish new spa –

  you can mix exploring some of thefinest countryside in the UK with aserious bout of pampering.

 Rooms from £195, www.thegreenway.co.uk

6. Coworth Park, Ascot

YOU wouldn’t expect theDorchester Group to do anything

 by halves, and it certainly hasn’tat Coworth Park, its first countrysideoutpost. Already heavily patronised by celebs and the jet set since it openedlast year, it’s a place with history (thehouse dates back to the 18th century),240 acres of gorgeous parkland, andeco-cred – the hotel grows its own car-

  bon-neutral fuel and runs a green-friendly underground spa.

 The Ascot location means it’s only 45 minutes from London, with

 Wentworth golf club just around thecorner, and it has its own equestriancentre – including polo facilities –and kids’ club. For interiors, think airy modern luxury with the oddquirk – free-standing copper baths,four-poster beds resembling tree

  branches and the like – and an

abounding air of five star luxuriance. Rooms from £295, www.coworthpark.com

Rather than merely renovating the house, theCornwall’s developers have shown considerablevision turning it into a multi-purpose hotel estate

5

6

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*Book by 18 Apr 11 for travel up to 26 Dec 12. Discount varies between 25-40% depending on room type booked. Discount is off accommodation portion only. Blackout dates apply. † Book by midnight 18 Apr 11 for travel up to 26 Dec 11 £100 is off per booking whenquoting SPRING100. Not combinable with free upgrade to Club World offer. Terms & conditions apply. ̂ Book by 18 Apr 11 for travel between01 May-30 Nov 11. 40% discount only applies to Royal Honeymoon Paradise Pool Rooms. Min stay 7 nights. Book by 30 Apr 11 for travel up to23 Dec 11. Free return flight is between Nassau-Georgetown, Great Exuma. Min stay 4 nights. Package bookings only. Quote FLYSEB to book.**Book by 21 Apr 11 for travel between 16 Jul-14 Aug 11. Quote FLYFREE to book. Offer is only valid for Jamaica Sandals resorts in a Butler category (not applicable to Sandals Carlyle). Free one-way upgrade applies from Economy Class to Club World with British Airways for Montego

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Lifestyle | Travel26 CITYA.M. 18 APRIL 2011

NOT everyone who visits Paris has aCarrie Bradshaw moment. That is tosay, when fizzing with excitement tohave touched down in the City of 

Light, you fling open the shutters of yourParisian hotel room on to a glittering view of the Eiffel Tower. In my experience, evenin a decent three-star, the view is moreoften than not of a dark interior courtyardsmelling very strongly of baguette, than of one of Paris’s many landmarks.

Upgrade by just two stars to the HotelMeurice, however, and you’ll get ‘em all atonce: the Tuilerie Gardens, the Louvre, theEiffel Tower, the tour Montparnasse, Placede La Concorde, and if you crane your neck out of the window a bit more to the left,Notre Dame herself.

Situated in the arcaded rue de Rivoli, per-haps the city’s chic-est shopping street, LeMeurice, built in 1818, is known to be thefirst Parisian “Palace” – French for luxury hotel. Everyone who is anyone has stayedthere – from Queen Victoria to the Dukeand Duchess of Windsor to Elizabeth Taylor and Salvador Dali, who stayed for atleast one month a year. One of the hotel’smore demanding guests, Dali famously requested a herd of sheep be brought to hisroom, and upon their arrival, he shot them with a pistol (luckily loaded with blanks). Another time, he demanded a horse.

Over its near 200-year existence, LeMeurice has seen four renovations – in1905, 1947, 1998 and the most recentone, in 2007, by that flamboyantdoyen of hotel style, PhilippeStarck. While sticking to thehotel’s classical feel – huge mir-rors, gilt paintwork, sumptu-ous fabrics – Starck’s refurb is

also inspired by SalvadorDali’s eccentriticies and his

As the city of light rakes in global

hotel brands, Maggie Campbellsteps back in time to Le Meurice

inimitable furniture design. Several piecesin the main salon, which also functions asa restaurant, Le Dali, are based on the sur-realist artist’s designs. The effect is playful, without being too obtrusively quirky.

Entering the hotel from the busy rue deRivoli, into the warm tones of cream, goldand pale green, it is easy to see why Dalifound it hard to leave. Our room, decoratedin the same colour scheme, was by far thelargest room I’ve ever stayed in in Paris –the marble bathroom itself was the size of the average garret. (Our room, however, was rien compared to the Belle Etoile Suiteon the top floor, which has a 360-degree view of the city, and with its four bedroomsplus butler’s quarters, occupies 2,960square feet. With a lift of its own, it is alsocompletely secure. No wonder the Queenenjoys checking in when she’s in town.)

Back on the ground f loor, Le Meurice hasone of the cosiest, most luxuriant hotel bars in the whole of Paris, ideal for a pre-dinner glass of champers (which, at theprice, should most definitely be sippedrather than downed). The hotel’s restau-

rant, a study in belle epoque grandeur – allmirrors and gold – presided over by renowned chef Yannick Alleno, boaststhree Michelin stars. It is booked up so farin advance that it can be harder to get atable than a room. Not that I’m bitter – we breakfasted there anyway, enjoying award-  winning pastry chef Camille Lesecq’sincredible puffy pains au chocolat, accom-panied by cinammon-laced pomme pureeand large silver jugs of coffee.

It is notoriously hard to find a taxi inParis. One can wait for up to an hour at ataxi rank. I have missed several Eurostarsin this exasperating fashion. At LeMeurice, it just takes one whistle from thedoorman, and a whole fleet pull up. A good tip for the future: say you are stay-

ing in the Belle Etoile Suite, and  you’ll be at Gare du Nord tout de

suite. Le Meurice’s Easter Package offersrooms from€640 per night and includes

several choclate surprises, champagne,

and a gift. Breakfast included.www.lemeurice.com

“Dali famously requested aherd of sheep be brought to his

room, and upon their arrival, he

shot them with a pistol”

Stuck for Easter? Tryout an old Paris classic

The splendour of Le Meurice’sdining room,foyer and a suite(far right).

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Margaret Manningand her husbandcreated the companybehind the royalwedding website,says Donata Huggins

Business Features | Entrepreneurs27

AT THE end of April, as you are morethan likely aware by now, there willbe just three working days out of arun of 11. Employees may be rejoicing

at the thought of this break from the office,but I have mixed feelings about this enforcedholiday period. The challenge for small andmedium-sized businesses (SME) is the sameas it always has been: when one or more peo-ple are absent from a business of 10 peopleor fewer, the impact is disproportionatelylarge.

These three and four day weeks are natu-rally a very attractive period for people totake time off: they get 11 days in a row at a

cost of only three days off their annualleave, but shutting up shop for days at atime can put pressure on small firms.

The way I see it, the same issue applies tothe April break as to the extended breakbetween Christmas and New Year. In mostbusinesses, nobody ever gets anything doneduring that time. So years ago I gave up,and now always offer my employees thetime between Christmas and New Year off as a gift. They return in the New Yearenthused and refreshed.

In fact, I have come to the view overmany years that we overrate time at workand underrate being productive. In otherwords, companies that focus on makingtheir employees as productive as they possi-bly can will profit more than companies thatencourage a culture of long working hours.I noticed this when I ran a global company.My French subsidiary, which was productivi-ty obsessed, managed to out-produce manyof my other subsidiaries despite workingmany fewer total hours per year.

But not all types of small businesses havethe luxury of being able to shut down forthe break. As the Confederation of BritishIndustry (CBI) reports, the additional bankholiday could cost UK businesses £6bn inlost output. The days off may boost morale,but for business owners, this country’s“doers and grafters” according to the PrimeMinister, work never stops. For the majorityof small business owners, it will be a case of simply grafting through the period with lesstime and fewer people.

But if this government is serious aboutmaximising the efficiency of SME growth inthe UK, then it must address this £6bn inlost output. In that light, what can possiblybe the logic behind clogging up the monthof April with days upon days of inactivity?

Another option for business owners isthat they may be able to ignore the royalwedding bank holiday entirely. Depending

on how their contracts are worded, somecompanies may be under no obligation togive employees the extra day off. However,I still wouldn’t recommend this: a boss whorefuses to acknowledge the extra bank holi-day runs the risk of being severely resented.As a more pragmatic alternative, what Isuggest is that we spread bank holidaysthroughout the year to support SMEs.

Spring is a frantic time for a lot of smallfirms, so moving a bank holiday to October,where staff are in need of a morale boost inbetween August and Christmas, seems likethe smart alternative.

But for this year we have little choice, somy advice is to make the period bearableby wrapping up any crucial meetings andtasks before the break, or else schedulethem for the next month. This way you cankeep things running smoothly as possibleuntil your staff return and normality isrestored.Doug Richard is the founder of School for 

Startups, a serial entrepreneur and an angel investor.

DON’T BANKON HOLIDAY

GROWTHDOUG RICHARDENTREPRENEUR AND INVESTOR

IN an era when the Queen is on

Facebook and Clarence House has a Twitter feed, it is unsurprising thatthe royal wedding needs an official

 website. And, of course, that means thatsomeone needed to design it – literally,designing a website fit for a king to be. Thepeople behind it must, therefore, have afair claim to being among the finest web-site makers in the land.

Contrary to what you might expect,England’s royal wedding website wizardsare not trendy Shoreditch types in skinny   jeans, but a husband and wife team intheir 50s, Margaret Manning and SimonUsher. They set up the firm in 1996, back  when some people still thought the inter-net was a fad. The business now employs170 people, has six offices across the worldand has a turnover of £12m a year.

“We were the OAPs of the internet worldeven when we started out. It was duringthe days when you couldn’t say that youthought the internet was going togenerate a ‘communications revolution’ without looking a bit scary and evangeli-cal,” says Margaret Manning.

But as a self-confessed geek and a formeraccountant, Manning confesses it wasn’tthe revolution that got her involved in thedigital world: “It was a slight mid-life crisisactually, I had a very good job as afinancial director, and a very nice car, but just thought – I’m going to dump it all andgo and work with my husband.”

Usher gave the scheme a boost by find-ing their first client. Previously the web-master for the Institute of Chartered  Accountants in England and Wales(ICAEW), he walked into his boss’s officeand asked them to outsource his job tohim on a 12 month contract or he wouldleave. They agreed and the company Reading Room was born.

Manning originally did all the techy stuff: “Simon is the creative part and I’m

the geek.” But the business grew rapidly after sourcing venture capital investment.“The technology soon got beyond me butthankfully we were then in the position tohire people.”

Of course, rapid growth and the interestof venture capitalists was a common expe-

rience across the internet sector in the1990s. But, unlike many of their competi-tors, Reading Room kept growing despitethe dot-com crash. Manning believes they   weathered the financial storm becausethey were cautious about taking venturecapital money.

“We held off taking venture capital forsome time, we didn’t think the company  was big enough to handle it. We waiteduntil we had 50 staff before we startedtalking to investors. I think that’s one of 

the reasons we survived.” Once they took the capital, however, Manning describesmost of her job was recruiting as fast aspossible to keep up with the demand fortheir services and they have been growingever since.

Manning says even at the business’stoughest points she has never regrettedquitting her job and taking a risk: “I mean,it’s taken me to pitch at BuckinghamPalace.”

www.officialroyalwedding2011.org 

Turnover:£12mStaff: 170Age: 51Born: Bromsgrove, WorcestershireLives: SohoStudied: Psychology, Birmingham UniversityDrinking: “Red wine and peppermint tea (notnecessarily in that order).”Reading: Emails

Talents: “My ability to work 18 hours a day.”Awards: International Female Entrepreneurof the Year, EMEA: Stevies Women inBusiness Awards 2009; First Woman inScience and Technology: First Woman Awards2008; Female Entrepreneur of the Year: FastGrowth Business Awards 2008; Finalist: Ernst& Young Entrepreneur of the Year 2009Motto: “Just do it.”

CV | MARGARET MANNING

How one designs a web

business fit for Royalty

Half of the husband and wife team that built Reading Room Picture: Micha Theiner/City A.M.

ENTREPRENEURS NEWS | IN BRIEF

ENTREPRENEURS SUMMITInvestec, the investment bank, is hosting aconference for entrepreneurs on 25 May. LaraMorgan, founder of Pacific Direct, LoveFilm’sSimon Calver, Luke Johnson among otherswill be speaking. Also, Vince Cable, theBusiness Secretary, will be giving a speech onthe economy alongside John Cridland of theConfederation of British Industry (CBI). Formore information call 020 7368 7128, [email protected] or visit

www.entrepreneurssummit.com. The stan-dard ticket price is £249 plus VAT.

CURRENCY FLUCTUATIONS HITTING SMESFluctuation in the currency markets over thelast year has hit small business, a new reportfrom currency specialists HiFX says. 48 percent of businesses felt that they had beennegatively affected in 2010, and admittedthat currency fluctuation was their secondbiggest worry after concerns that thedemand for goods and services would bereduced in 2011. Nevertheless, six out of ten(65 per cent) small business owners are con-

fident about their company’s prospects in2011.

PROOF: ENTREPRENEURSHIP CAN BE TAUGHTIt turns out entrepreneurship can be taught:James Caan’s Entrepreneurs’ Business Academy(EBA) this week announced its first millionpound delegate. Alyas Khan, founder of consul-tancy firm Emica Group, said that his turnoverhad increased from £517 in March 2010 – whenhe joined the EBA – to £1.05m last month. Alyassays an online trading seminar he attended wasthe turning point for him. He claims his businessturnover increased by £16,000 when he imple-

menting the website advice given by EBA webguru, Guy Levine.

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FIX MY FAMILY

BBC2,9PMFollowing the work of a hostel forhomeless people in Flintshire, NorthWales that has been run by EdnaSpeed for more than 30 years.

THE RECKONING

ITV1,9PMA woman is bequeathed £5million byan anonymous benefactor on thecondition that she kill a man whoallegedly deserves to die.

THE HOTEL INSPECTOR

CHANNEL5, 9PMNew series. Alex Polizzi visits the FirstIn Last Out, a 17th-century B&B witha pub in Winchester, following anumber of negative reviews.

BBC1

SKY SPORTS 17pm Sky Sports News at Seven7.30pm Live ChampionshipFootball 10pm PFA Awards 2011

11pm Premier League Review12am The Sky Sports Years 1am

Netbusters 1.30amChampionshipFootball 3amNetbusters 3.30am

Watersports World 4.30am Max

Power5.30am-6am FIFA FutbolMundial

SKY SPORTS 26.30pm NASCAR 7.30pm LiveSpeedway 9.30pm Wild Spirits

10pm Boots ‘n’ All 11pmSpeedway 1am European Tour

Golf 2am PGA Tour Golf 3am

Wonderful World of Golf 4.30am-5.30am PGA Tour

Classic

SKY SPORTS 37pmGreat Run Series 7.30pm

Karting8pm Emirates T20Cricket9pm NASCAR 10pm

WWE: Late Night – Afterburn

11pm WWE: Late Night – BottomLine 12am WWE: NXT 1am WWE

Vintage Collection 2am LiveWWE: Late Night – Raw

4.15am-4.45am Wild Spirits

BRITISH EUROSPORT7pm Live Snooker: The WorldChampionship10pm World

Superbikes 11.30pm-12.30amChampions Club

ESPN

6.30pmTalk of the Terrace 8pmFrench Top 14 Rugby Union8.30pmPremiership Rugby

Union. Highlights of the latesttop-flight fixtures. 10pm Between

The Lines 10.30pm ESPN Pardonthe Interruption 11pm ESPN

Game of the Week 11.30pmESPN Kicks: Scottish Premier

League 11.45pm ESPN Kicks:

Extra 12am Live Major LeagueBaseball 3am Baseball Tonight

4am ESPN Press Pass4.30am-6am Talk of the Terrace

SKY LIVING7pm CSI: Crime Scene

Investigation 8pm Katie 9pm

Four Weddings 10pm 16 &

Pregnant 11pm Criminal Minds12am Ghost Whisperer 1amCSI:

Crime Scene Investigation2.40am Charmed4.20am

Nothing to Declare 5.10am-6am

Maury

BBC THREE7pm Don’t Tell the Bride 8pm The

Gatwick Baby9pm Gavin &Stacey 10pm EastEnders

10.30pm Bizarre ER 11pm FamilyGuy 11.45pm The Undercover

Princes12.45am Gavin & Stacey1.45am Bizarre ER 2.15am Don’tTell the Bride 3.10am Undercover

Princes4.10am-5.10am PoliceAcademy UK

E47pm Hollyoaks7.30pm Friends9pm Glee 10pmGreat British

Hairdresser 11pmBeauty and the

Geek 12am My Name Is Earl12.55am Ugly Betty 1.40am

Being Erica 2.25am Beauty andthe Geek 3.05am Important

Things with Demetri Martin3.30am Beehive3.55am

Privileged 4.40am The Class

5am-6am Switched

HISTORY7pm The Kennedys 9pm Pawn

Stars 9.30pm Mud Men 10.30pmIRT Deadliest Roads 11.30pm

Pawn Stars 12am Mud Men 1amPawn Stars 2am IRT DeadliestRoads 3amHerod: Behind the

Myth 4am The Universe5am-6am Ice Road Truckers

DISCOVERY8pmHow It’s Made 9pmMythbusters 10pm Britain’s

Toughest Cops 11pm Monsters

Inside Me 12am Bear Grylls: BornSurvivor 1am Trawler Wars 2am

Future Weapons 3amGreatestTank Battles 3.50am The First

World War 4.40am TreasureQuest 5.30am-6am Destroyed in

Seconds

DISCOVERY HOME &

HEALTH7pmA Baby Story 8pm 18 Kids

and Counting 9pm Trauma Unit10pm Untold Stories of the ER

11pm A&E 12am Trauma Unit1am Untold Stories of the ER 2am

A&E 3am 18 Kids and Counting4amBringing Home the Babies

5am-6am A Baby Story

SKY18pm Stargate Universe 9pmALeague of Their Own 10pm The

Top Ten Show 10.10pm

Spartacus: Gods of the Arena

11.25pmSchool of Hard Knocks12.30amCustoms UK 1amRoadWars 1.50am Border Invasion

USA2.40am Cold Case 3.30amLost 4.20am My Pet Shame

5.10am-6am Bill Bailey’sBirdwatching Bonanza

BBC2 ITV1 CHANNEL4 CHANNEL5

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TVPICK6pm BBC News 6.30pmBBC

London News 6.55pmParty

Election Broadcast 7pm The One

Show 7.30pmBang Goes the

Theory 8pm EastEnders

8.30pm The Trillion Dollar

Con-Man: Panorama

9pm Motorway Cops

10pm BBC News10.25pm Regional News 10.35pm

A Question of Sport 11.05pm Late

Kick Off 11.35pmThe Graham

Norton Show: Weatherview

12.25amSign Zone: MasterChef 

1.25amWatchdog 2.25amArctic

with Bruce Parry 3.25am Sign

Zone: Baking Made Easy

3.55am-6am BBC News

6pm Eggheads

6.30pm Great British Menu

7pm Live Snooker: The World

Championship

8pm Railway Walks

8.30pm Raymond Blanc’s

Kitchen Secrets

9pm CHOICE Fix My Family

10pm Never Mind theBuzzcocks

10.30pmNewsnight: Weather

11.20pmAn Island Parish

11.50pmSnooker: The World

Championship

12.40amSnooker Extra2.40am BBC News 3.15am Super

League 4am-6amLearning Zone

6pm London Tonight

6.25pm Party Election

Broadcast

6.30pm ITV News

7pm Emmerdale

7.30pm Coronation Street

8pm The Dales

8.30pm Coronation Street

9pm CHOICE The Reckoning10pm ITV News at Ten

10.30pm London News

10.35pmReal Crime with

Mark Austin11.35pmRiver Monsters 12.30am

The Zone 2.35amUEFA Champions

League 3am ITV Nightscreen

4.35am-5.30amJeremy Kyle

6pm The Simpsons

6.30pm Hollyoaks

7pm Channel 4 News

7.55pm 4thought.tv

8pm Help! My House Is

Infested: Helping homeowners

with pest infestations.

9pm Meet the Middletons

10pmFILM Hostage: Thriller,starring Bruce Willis. 2005.

12.10amMusic on 4: Green

Day: Awesome Live

12.45amEuropean Poker Tour1.40am The SS 2.35am Empire

3.30amWarlords 4.25am Codex

5.10am Wogan’s Perfect Recall

5.35am-6.20amUgly Betty

6pm Home and Away

6.25pm OK! TV

7pm 5 News at 7

7.30pm How Do They Do It? 5

News Update

8pm The Gadget Show: 5

News at 9

9pm CHOICE The Hotel

Inspector10pm Extraordinary People:

The Rainman Twins11pm FILMPrivate Benjamin  1980.

1.10am SuperCasino4amMeals inMoments 4.10am How Not to

Decorate 4.55amRough Guide toBang for Your Buck 5.10am

Wildlife SOS 5.35am-6amHouseDoctor

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45 35

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11

4

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34

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23

16

Fill the grid so that each block

adds up to the total in the box

above or to the left of it.

You can only use the digits 1-9

and you must not use the

same digit twice in a block.

The same digit may occur

more than once in a row or

column, but it must be in a

separate block.

COFFEE BREAKCopyright Puzzle Press Ltd, www.puzzlepress.co.uk

KAKURO

QUICK CROSSWORD

LAST ISSUE’SSOLUTIONS

KAKURO

WORDWHEELUsing only the letters in the Wordwheel, you have

ten minutes to find as many words as possible,

none of which may be plurals, foreign words or

proper nouns. Each word must be of three letters

or more, all must contain the central letter and

letters can only be used once in every word. There

is at least one nine-letter word in the wheel.

SUDOKU

Place the numbers from 1 to 9 in each empty cell so that each

row, each column and each 3x3 block c ontains all the numbers

from 1 to 9 to solve this tricky Sudoku puzzle.

SUDOKU

QUICK CROSSWORD

ACROSS

1 Spectacle (5)

3 Journal (5)

6 Leaves out (5)

7 Prime minister o India rom 1947to 1964 (5)

 10 Rereshing sotdrink (5,6)

 13 Good ellowship (11)

 15 Edge tool usedin shaving (5)

 18 Legend (5)

19 Spy (5)

 20 Type o boat usedto transport peopleand cars (5)

DOWN

1 Large group o fish (5)

2 Difcult situation (coll) (3,6)

3 Teacher at a universityor college (3)

4 Fire residue (3)

5 Juvenility (5)

8 Determine theamount o (9)

9 US Academy Award (5)

11 Ms Braun, Hitler’smistress (3)

 12 Narrow runner used orgliding over snow (3)

 13 Stoppers or bottles, etc (5)

 14 Adversary, oe (5)

 16 Menagerie (3)

17 Tear apart (3)

R

R

I

U

SA

H

B

H

S H O P S M O I S T

L R A M R

I N C A S C A M P I

N A I R A O A

G E N R E R A V E L

D I P L O M A

I C I E R N A B O B

S D I I L L E

 A Z A L E A G E A R

  A T V A N

C R E T E S M O K E

8 6 3 2 9 3 7 8

5 3 2 1 5 1 9 6

9 4 7 8 5 2 8 9

6 2 1 1 2 3 1

7 1 1 3 4 2 5 7

5 3 6 9 7

5 3 9 6 7 8 5 9

7 9 2 4 9 6 8

2 4 9 2 1 5 3 4

3 1 8 9 2 7 1 6

1 2 4 3 4 8 2 7

WORDWHEELThe nine-letter word was

PROBATION

Lifestyle | TV& Games CITYA.M. 18 APRIL 201128

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Results

Sport29

HAPPY POTTERS WRITE AWEMBLEY FAIRYTALESTOKE THUMP BOLTON TO REACHFA CUP FINAL: PAGE 30

A FOUR-BALL ATGLENEAGLES WITHGOLF LIVE 2011WINCity AM has teamed up with Golf LIVE 2011, the ultimate live

golf event, to offer one lucky reader the chance to win a four-ballat the famous Gleneagles Hotel®.

The winner can look forward to playing the PGA CentenaryCourse, host venue of the 2014 Ryder Cup, which was created bythe legendary, Jack Nicklaus. Gleneagles is also home to the PGANational Golf Academy – Scotland and the Johnnie WalkerChampionship.

The winner and five runners-up will also receive a pair of tickets toGolf LIVE 2011 where you can watch and learn from the sport’slegends, including Colin Montgomerie, trial the latest equipment

from the world’s best manufacturers, as well as browse and pur-chase from 150 handpicked golf brands exhibiting at the show.For more information visit www.golfliveevent.com

To be in with a chance of winning please answerthe following question.

What is the venue for

Golf LIVE 2011?

a) Wentworth Golf Club

 b) London Golf Clubc) Celtic Manor Golf Club

 To be in with a chance of winning send your answers [email protected] with your answer, name, address and a day-time phone number, putting ‘Golf LIVE 2011’ in the subject field.Winners will be contacted after the closing date of noon on April20th and tickets will be delivered in the post.

Golf LIVE, this year’s must-attend golf event, will take place atthe stunning London Golf Club, near Brands Hatch, in Kent on

May 20-22 2011. The event gives visitors access to the highlyacclaimed Jack Nicklaus-designed Heritage Course, the drivingrange, putting green and other facilities.

Terms & Conditions: The promoter is Golf Live and the promoter reserves the right to change the prize to one of equivalent or greater value without notice. Travel expenses and accommodation are not included,

prize is not transferable and no alternative prize for tickets will be offered in the event that Golf Live is abandoned. Entry in to the promotion is free and no purchase is necessary, entrants must be aged 18 and over.

The closing date is 20th April 2011 at 11:59am. The winner will be drawn at random from all the correct entries and will be notified on 20th April 2011. By entering the promotion you agree to receive further

information and similar promotions from City A.M. and Golf Live. If you wish not to receive any further information please add ‘No’ after your answer. The winners, by accepting the prize, agree to publicity if 

required. The Editor’s decision is final and one entry per reader.

UNLUCKY Rory McIlroy put on a braveface after following up his Mastersheartbreak with another final-day col-lapse at the Malaysian Open.

  The Northern Irishman held athree-shot lead at one stage during athird round that ran into Sunday 

  because of rain, but ended up twoshots behind the winner, the prodi-gious Italian 17-year-old MatteoManassero.

“At this moment I’m pretty disap-pointed but it was a good week,”insisted McIlroy, who led last week in Augusta after 63 holes only to crum- ble but travelled for 25 hours to play in Malaysia just days later.

“I started off really well in the tour-nament. To shoot the scores that I didconsidering the travelling is a pretty good effort.”

McIlroy extended his overnight lead with a birdie on 10 as he and playingpartner Manassero hurried to finishtheir third rounds, but a double bogey 

at the 15th saw him slip behind histeenage rival before the final round.

 And despite three birdies in fourholes from the eighth, McIlroy stut-tered again with a double bogey andtwo bogeys in a 69 to finish on 14under par, behind Manassero andFrenchman Gregory Bourdy, whose67 saw him snatch second place.

Manassero’s victory was his second

on the European Tour and a timely success ahead of his 18th birthday tomorrow. He said: “It’s a greatachievement after just 11 months of professional golf. It’s a great achieve-ment and gets me into the Majors.”

McIlroy lets

another titlechance slipBY FRANK DALLERES

GOLF▲

 McIlroy led until the final day in Malaysia, like last week in Augusta Picture: GETTY  email [email protected]

-16 Matteo Manassero (ITA)-15 Gregory Bourdy (FRA)-14 Rory McIlroy (NIR)– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –-8 Martin Kaymer (GER)-7 Charl Schwartzel (SA)

LEADERBOARD | MALAYSIAN OPEN

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Sport30 CITYA.M. 18 APRIL 2011

STOKE manager Tony Pulis fears hisside will never silence their detrac-

tors despite swaggering into theirfirst FA Cup final with a rout of Bolton.

  Two goals from Jonathan Walters added to strikes fromMatthew Etherington,Robert Huth and Kenwyne

  Jones catapulted the Pottersinto another Wembley dateagainst big-spendingManchester City.

  A champagne performancesent the tens of thousands of 

Stoke fans who made the

trip to London into raptureand hugely boosted theirprospects of qualifying

for European competitionnext season.

But Pulis said: “We have beencriticised and pulled down and I

am not sure whether this victory 

 will stop it. There is always the stig-ma.

“The first year we were in the

Premier League we worked very hardat being organised and methodical in what we did. We have moved on fromthat and will continue to get better.”

Etherington fired Stoke into anearly lead with a venomous low effortthat set the standard for most of theirgoals. Huth’s volley and a fine break-

away move finished clinically by  Jones put them three up before half-time.

  Walters (left) added a fine solofourth and capped the win by tuck-ing in a fifth from a Jones cross.

Bolton striker Kevin Davies said: “Itis just a terrible dream at the minute.

 We are all devastated and very emo-tional. It’s very difficult and we feelashamed and embarrassed.”

Stoke in dreamland as five-star show books FA Cup final with City

Investec Derby Festival – 3rd & 4th June 2011

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BOLTON WANDERERS

STOKE CITY

 TOTTENHAM winger Gareth Bale beatoff competition from his more experi-

enced peers to scoop the PFA Player of the Year prize at last night’s awardsdinner.

  Teenage Arsenal midfielder Jack   Wilshere ensured a north Londonclean sweep by landing the YoungPlayer of the Year honour.

Bale, 21, pipped Wilshere’s team-mate Samir Nasri and Manchester City striker Carlos Tevez into second andthird in the vote by fellow players.

“I am more than delighted,” he said.“It is a massive award and it is a greathonour to receive, especially fromother professionals. It is a honour

 when you look at the names that have won it before and it just makes you go‘wow’.”

  The Welshman became one of Europe’s hottest properties when hedazzled in two matches against InterMilan during the Champions Leaguegroup stage. He has scored 12 goalsthis season but none since January asinjuries have made his appearancesmore sporadic in the second half of the campaign.

 Wilshere, meanwhile, has become afirst-team regular and forced his way into the England team in a break-through season for the 19-year-old.

“It is my first full season and it is amassive award,” said Wilshere. “I am

  very proud to be the fifth recipientfrom Arsenal, it is good to keep thishistory going.”

Bale scoopsplayer of theyear award

BY FRANK DALLERES

FOOTBALL▲

  ARSENAL manager Arsene Wengeradmits his side’s Premier Leaguetitle dream may be over after Dirk Kuyt’s 102nd-minute penalty snatched the most dramatic of draws for battling Liverpool.

  An injury-time spot-kick of theirown from Robin van Persie looked tohave earned the nervy Gunners afirst win in three home leaguegames and the points needed tokeep leaders Manchester United insight.

 That was in the 98th minute, butincredibly there was still time forEmmanuel Eboue to be penalised fora challenge on Lucas Leiva, allowingKuyt to equalise with the last kick of the game.

 Wenger protested against referee  Andre Marriner’s decision and theadditional four minutes of stoppagetime but did not deny that, sixpoints adrift with six games to play,

 Arsenal’s title hopes lie in tatters.“I don’t know, we dropped two

points today. It was a difficult gameagainst a Liverpool team whodefended a lot and basically only defended,” said Wenger.

“We will have to give everything

until the last game of the season andsee if it is our year or not. We have

  been badly done, that’s what youcan say, in the last three homegames.”

  Wenger and opposite numberKenny Dalglish traded heated wordson the final whistle, but the

Liverpool boss played down thetouchline spat.

“I’d rather not repeat what wassaid,” Dalglish explained. “I don’tknow why a conversation betweentwo managers on the bench is rele-

 vant after a game like that. It’s not worth the time of day.”

 Arsenal’s largest shareholder StanKroenke was in the directors’ box to

  watch his first game since takingcontrol of the club last week, butsaw little of note until the franticclosing stages.

Gunners defender LaurentKoscielny headed against the bar inthe first half and Van Persie forced asharp point-blank save from PepeReina, while Luis Suarez tested

 Wojciech Szczesny from distance forthe visitors.

Lengthy stoppages for injuries toLiverpool duo Jamie Carragher and

 Andy Carroll made for an extraordi-narily long injury time, and Arsenal

 were first to benefit when Marrinerpenalised a Jay Spearing tackle onCesc Fabregas.

But no sooner had Van Persie slot-ted the opener than Lucas tumbledunder a sprawling Eboue and Kuytstepped up to drive another nail intothe coffin of Arsenal’s season.

1

1

ARSENAL

LIVERPOOL

BY FRANK DALLERES

FOOTBALL▲

DIRK DESTROYER: KUYT GOA

KILLS ARSENAL TITLE HOPESMan Utd edge closer to Premier League crown asLiverpool equalise in 12th minute of stoppage time

FOOTBALL▲

 Kuyt’s equaliser denied Arsenalvital points.

 Picture: PA

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ENGLAND’S Lewis Hamilton toasted areturn to form after he breathed new life into the world championship by pipping title rival Sebastian Vettel atthe Chinese Grand Prix.

 The McLaren driver claimed a firstrace win for eight months in an inci-dent-packed contest that saw himreel in and overtake Red Bull’s Vettel

 with just four laps remaining. The German, who was threatening

to run away with a second successivedrivers’ title having won the first tworaces of 2011, could not compete withHamilton’s daring and superior tyresin the closing stages.

“I’m absolutely overwhelmed. It

feels like a long, long time since I wassitting here,” said Hamilton, who,

along with team-mate Jenson Button,passed pole-sitter Vettel at the very first corner.

“I feel very proud and extremely grateful for all the hard work theguys put in. I’m looking forward tomany, many more great races likethis. Every inch of the race, every sec-ond, was incredibly enjoyable.”

  Vettel, who missed out on a fifthconsecutive grand prix victory dating

 back to last season, cursed his unchar-acteristically sluggish start.

“My start was not the best and forsome reason it seems the left handside of the grid is worse here than theright hand side,” said Vettel. “It was-n’t brilliant and I lost positions to

  Jenson and Lewis. After that it wasabout being patient.”

 While Vettel limped over the line,team-mate Mark Webber stormed

 back from 18th to snatch third placefrom 2009 champion Button on thepenultimate lap.

Nico Rosberg took fifth forMercedes followed by the Ferrari pairof Felipe Massa and Fernando Alonso,in sixth and seventh respectively,

  while Scotland’s Paul di Resta fin-ished 11th for Force India.

Daring Hamilton enjoys long-awaitedvictory in China to keep Vettel in sight

BY FRANK DALLERES

FORMULA ONE▲

Sport 31CITYA.M. 18 APRIL 2011

KEY MOMENTS | GUNDONE

Stan Kroenke, who last week took control of Arsenal, paid a rare visit to Emirates Stadiumbut would not have been hugely excited bythe play on offer from either side for much of the opening 90 minutes

98 mins: The drama erupted once the gamewent into stoppage time, however, Robin vanPersie scoring what looked like being the win-ning penalty after Jay Spearing had tripped

Gunners captain Cesc Fabregas in the box

102 mins: Yet there was to be another twist.Lucas Leiva went down under a challengefrom Emmanuel Eboue in the Arsenal penaltyarea and Dirk Kuyt scored from the spot, toArsene Wenger’s intense frustration (above)

KENYAN Emmanuel Mutai set a new course record as he and compatriotMary Keitany scorched the capital’sstreets in the London Marathon.

Mutai, last year’s runner-up,trimmed 30 seconds off the previous

 best time to win the men’s race in twohours, four minutes and 40 seconds –

  just over a minute quicker than fel-low countrymen Martin Lel andPatrick Makau.

Rising star Keitany, meanwhile,gave absent world record holderPaula Radcliffe food for thought by taking the spoils in the women’s racein 2:19:19, edging out last year’s win-ner Liliya Shobukhova.

Channel Islander Lee Merrien was

the fastest British man in 14th place  with a time of 2:14:27, whilemarathon debutant Jo Pavey camehome 19th in the women’s race in2:28:24 – fast enough to qualify forthis summer’s World Championshipin Korea and London 2012.

Mutai, 26, who was also second inNew York last year and took silver inthe 2009 world championships, said:“My dreams have come true because Ihad it in my mind that one day I

  would win one of the five majormarathons.”

Keitany, 29, became the first woman to run a half-marathon in lessthan 66 minutes earlier this year andsaid: “I think I surprised myself 

  because I was running with thechampion from last year and I was a

  bit scared. But then I started to  believe in myself that I could do itand I feel very happy.”

Pavey, 37, could find herself select-ed in the Great Britain marathonteam for the World Championship

  when it is named today, and admit-ted: “I might have to make some deci-sions in the next 24 hours.”

Some 35,000 runners took part inthe race to raise money for charity,including former Olympic rowersMatthew Pinsent and JamesCracknell and ex-400m pair Iwan

 Thomas and Jamie Baulch.

Records tumble as Mutai andKeitany sweep board for KenyaBY FRANK DALLERES

LONDON MARATHON▲

SPORT | IN BRIEF

Leeds thrashed by young WaspsRUGBY UNION: Wasps ran in seventries to thrash Premiership relegation

favourites Leeds Carnegie 51-18 andclaim only their second win in 10 match-es. Joe Simpson and Richard Haughtongrabbed two tries apiece, with JoeWard, Billy Vunipola and Zak Taulafoscoring the others, as the emergingElliott Daly and Sam Jones shone for ayouthful Wasps side. Adams Park inter-im director of rugby Leon Holden said:“This is the start of the revolution.Hopefully we’ll look back on this in 10years and say that.”

Khan eyes Bradley showdownBOXING: Britain’s Amir Khan istargeting a lucrative unification fightwith American Timothy Bradley afterdefending his WBA title against PaulMcCloskey on Saturday. Bradleyholds the WBC and WBO light-welter-weight belts and Khan, who beatMcCloskey on points, said: “There arelevels in boxing and Bradley is the same

level as me. We’re in the worldclass level.”

Sebastian Vettel Red Bull 68

Lewis Hamilton McLaren 47

Jenson Button McLaren 38

Mark Webber Red Bull 37

Fernando Alonso Ferrari 26

Felipe Massa Ferrari 24

CHAMPIONSHIPDRIVER TEAM PTS

Man Utd 32 20 9 3 70 32 69

Arsenal 32 18 9 5 63 31 63

Chelsea 32 18 7 7 58 26 61

Man City 32 16 8 8 50 30 56

Tottenham 31 14 11 6 44 36 53

Liverpool 33 14 7 12 46 39 49

TOP SIXTEAM PLD W D L F A PTS

 Mutai set a new course recordand Keitany(right) won thewomen’s race .

 Pictures: GETTY 

 Hamilton’s win was his first in eight months Picture: ACTION IMAGES

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