a. CM Candidate preference

b. Local leader preference

c. Party preference

d. Pulse of the people for 2019

e. Pulse of the people on economy (GST, Demonetization, Jobs and others)

f. Key Suggestions and solutions

1. () ?

2. , ?

3. ?

4. ?

5. ?

6. " " " ?"-

7. ?

8. 2019 ?

Geo-strategically selected units through purposive sampling

Structured, face to face interviews (on and off camera)

a. Data collected and sourced, and videos recorded by verified citizens reporter network apart

from team reporters and researchers

b. Opinion and Exit Poll released through Jan Ki Baat PMOO Model (Probability Map of

Outcomes) analysis backed by Issue-Location Matrix [Election Prediction model under Jan Ki

Baat propriety]

Metro stations, railway stations, bus stops, airports, hospitals, schools,

university spaces/colleges, malls, local/weekly markets, streets, bastis, camps, vending zones

: based on - age, gender, income levels, religion, caste, physical ability

and occupations; (i.e. among women, youth, economically weaker sections, religious minorities,

farmers, Dalits, differently-abled, middle-class, small-businesses, senior citizens)

Phase-wise, region-wise and key constituency-wise (popular state and

national leaders like Narendra Modi, Amit Shah, Rahul Gandhi, Ahmed Patel)

SECTION 1 : RESULTS & KEY FINDINGS

SECTION 1.1 Total Seat Breakdowns (Out of 182)

SECTION 1.2 Region-Wise Results

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

BJP Congress Others Total

Seats

BJP

Congress

Others

Total

SECTION 1.3 KEY FINDINGS AND OUTLIERS

1. Anti BJP votes should be attributed to the rise of Hardik Patel led patidar

agitation; naturally adding to the number of votes of the congress in Patidar

dominated areas.

2. On a macro level this election is Kadva Patidar agitation against BJP with certain

division in Leuva Patidar votes against the BJP. Against that, BJP can rely on the OBC

consolidation of votes.

3. The lead margins in key seats affected by the Patidar Agitation and in rural belt in all

probability will be less than 5000 votes which increases the importance of the last

72 hours significantly.

4. The dominant issue for Patidars doesnt seem to Anamat but the atrocities against

them during the agitation and perceived attitude where BJP did not even listen to

their demands.

5. Rajkot (West) and Mehsana that belong to incumbent Chief Minister, Vijay Rupani

and Dept CM, Nitin Patel respectively may face a tough electoral battle. The victory

margin, especially in Mehsana, will be very less

6. The BJP seems to gain in seats dominated by the tribal belt and those dominated by

the Koli community.

7. The lack of a strong Gujarati face is one of the biggest weakness for INC

0

50

100

Seats in Saurashtra and

Kutch RegionBJP

Congress

Others

Total

0102030405060

North Gujarat

BJP

Congress

Others

Total

0

10

20

30

40

Seats in South Gujarat

BJP

Congress

Others

Total

0

10

20

30

40

Seats in South Gujarat

BJP

Congress

Others

Total

8. Key issue: Cotton price for Framers is not being realised, Price rise, Lack of Jobs,

Effect of GST is no longer an issue to target BJP

9. Support among urban youth and women is more for BJP

10. BJP is likely to win Una, as opposed to popular belief.

SECTION 1.4 DISTRICT-WISE SEAT RESULTS

Region District name Total No of

seats

BJP Congress Others

Saurashtra

and Kutch

(54)

Kutch 6 5 1

Surendranagar 5 4 1

Rajkot 8 5 3

Jamnagar 5 3 2

Porbandar 2 0 1 1

Junagarh 5 3 2

Bhavnagar 7 6 1

Morbi 3 2 1

Devbhumi-

Dwarka

2 2 0

Somnath 4 3 1

Botad 2 1 1

Amreli 5 3 2

Total 37 16 1

NORTH

GUJARAT

(53)

Ahmedabad 21 16 5

Gandhinagar 5 1 4

Mehsana 7 2 5

Patan 4 1 3

Sabarkantha 4 1 3

Banaskantha 9 4 4 1

Arvalli 3 0 3

Total 24 28 1

CENTRAL

GUJARAT

(40)

Panchmahal 5 3 2

Dahod 6 4 2

Kheda 5 3 2

Anand 7 4 3

Vadodara 10 6 3 1

Mahisagar 3 0 3

Chota Udaypur 3 2 1

Total 23 16 1

SOUTH

GUJARAT

(35)

Bharuch 5 3 1 1

Navsari 5 4 1

Surat 16 11 5

Dang 1 1

Valsad 5 4 1

Tapi 2 1 1

Narmada 2 2

Total 26 8 1

SECTION 2 SEAT-WISE ISSUE-LOCATION MATRIX

Seat BJP Congress Key Factors

Limbdi

(Surendranagar)

60 40 Somabhai Patel of Congress outsider

image; resigned and fought from Lok Sabha;

son fought and lost; so Congress has no local

leader/Mahendra Singh Rana of BJP is local

there; Vikas has not happened;

Botad 55 45 Saurabh Patel of BJP is popular but

Farmers not happy/Vikas Not happened

Amreli 40 60 Paresh Dhanani of Congress is popular

youth leader who defeated big leader Dilip

Sanghani of BJP; PD considered as CM

candidate in 2012; done good vikas; Bavaku

Undhad, big leader from BJP standing from

BJP against him.

Dhari (Amreli) 50 50 Former Minister leader Dilip Sanghani from

BJP is standing; but is outsider; JV Kakadiya

of INC is a local popular leader; local samaj

of Koli community supports congress more;

Modi rally factor

Visvadar (Junagarh) 40 60 Kirit patel of BJP is a good leader but

historically Keshubhais seat; patidar factor

will play a big role

Junagarh (5) 90 10 Mahendra Mashru of BJP is very polular

hasnt taken salary since the time he was

elected has been a 5 time MLA

Kutiana (Porbandar) 30 70 Kandhal Jadehja of NCP is very popular and

powerful; won in 2012; and then worked

very hard

Porbandar

(Porbandar)

40 60 Arjun Modhvadiya of Congress is winning

because of his jan sampark, supportive and

more accesible stature; Kharwa samaj

(fishermen community) is dominant; esp

after Rahul Gandhi Sabha

BJP not solved the fishermens issues sea

shore not developed; ones who were

supporting BJP are also now supporting

congress; maritime security an important

issue;

Indias largest flyover is under construction

there since years and people are agitated

because of non-completion;

Babu Bokhariya is candidate and sitting MLA

and doesnt have a clean track record

Una 70 30 Dalit mudda has fizzled out; vikas has

happened;

Bhavnagar 80 20 Jeetu Waghani Pradesh Adhyaksh of BJP is

very popular; Rajputs were allegedly little

unhappy with him earlier; he won with a

lead of 60,000 last time; Congress

umeedwaar is not known and not popular

Morbi (3) 70 30 Recent rally of PM Indra Gandhi jibe; BJP

candidate Amrut Kantilal winning since past

25 years since 1995 of Jan Sangh

Tharad

(Banadkantha)

60 40 Parbat Patel of BJP; MoS against DD Rajput,

first time candidate from Congress is rich

and powerful; Maoji Patel is fighting

independently cutting congress votes and

benefitting Parbat Patel

Vav (Banaskantha) 60 40 Big leader Shankar Chaudhary of BJP;

Geniben Thakor from Congress is not that

strong (recommended by Alpesh Thakor);

during floods, SC did good work

Mandvi, Kutch 60 40 Shakti Singh Goyal of Congress big leader

might lose; outsider image; against Virendra

C Jadeja of BJP is a local popular/powerful

leaders; sitting MLA gave up seat for jadeja;

vikas is so so given

its a tourist place (Tara Chand Kheda gave

up his seat)

Bhuj 70 30 Nimaben from BJP is a doctor and well

educated; has won; Vikas has happened;

More Ahir population Chaki Adambhai

from Congress has been losing

Vadgam 60 40 Has been citadel of Congress; Jignesh

Mewani is standing independetly; is an

outsider; posters that he shouldnt come to

ask for votes; former Congress candidates

Gir Somnath 60 40 Jasubhai Barad of BJp earlier from Congress

Vikas has happened; tourist development

has happened well; no problem with GST;

drinking water not clean and not on time

Kalol (Gandhinagar) 70 30 Congress has been winning; patidar factor;

2012 won only by 300 votes

Sanand INC farmers; land grabbing; nano plant has

been made on lands of people but have not

benefitted the janta

Gandhinagar(Mansa) 20 80 Patidar dominated area. 2. Hardik patel rally

3. Historically congress

Ahmedabad (Ellis

Bridge)

80 20 Modi working for India, hardik dividing

Gujarat on cast lines, law and order, women

safety , positive about GST

Smbli (Vadodra) 60 40 Ketan Bhai Imandar independent now BJP,

conducts a lot of marrriages ,2012 43.10%,

Congress 29.17%, personal lagaav, solves

personal problem instantly, phone number

was given by a driver of the gaadi

Dabohi( Vadodra) 55 45 Shaliesh bhai mathur new BJP candidate,

obc maximum voter, 17 sept modi went on

birthday, siddarth patel(45.64 5),,work done

by bjp

Vadodra city 60 40 Bjp since 1990, manisha ben patel sitting ,

reserved now , sc/st voters now, kam bolta

hai, women safety , drainage system

Sayajiganj(vadodra) 55 45 Baroda smart city visthapit place people not

happy., BJP vote last time 50k , same strong

contestant (jitendra sukhalia), anganwadi

workers samaan vetan, kam kiya hai

Raopura (vodadra) 60 40 Vikas has happened; BJP has worked; urban

centres are well-developed cimema halls,

wide roads, - but displacement of the poor

smart city is not inclusive; drainage, roads,

electricity and water are proper; Rajendra

Prasad of BJP is winning since 3 times with

large margins

Manjalpur

(Vadodara City)

60 40 Gas cylinders price rise; elecrticity, water

and roads work is done (vikas has

happened); patidar factor not at play; BJP

candidate Yogesh Patel vs INCs Chirag Hans

Kumar Javeri

Chota Udaypur (3) 55 45 Local issues safety, governance, water,

infrastructure are good (majority said);

Muslims to vote for Congress and AAP also

standing this time. Candidates INC

candidate is popular; BJP candidate is sitting

MLA work done

Jayatpur (Chota

Udeypur)

60 40 Local issues cleanliness and infrastructure

work has happened and BJP will come;

womens safety is good; GST and demon not

a negative factor; Congress not that big a

factor

Limbayat (Surat) 60 40 Roads are being constructed ; 80% are fine;

womens safety not an issue; GST Demon is

bit difficult; SangeetaBen has done good

work; Ravindra Patil of Congress has left BJP

and BJP supporters angry on this; Shiv

Sena floating candidate Samrat Patil who

might cut Patil votes; maximum population

is of Marathas followed by Muslims (72,000

out of over 2,50,000); Muslim women taking

out pro-Modi rallies

Choriyasi (Surat) 55 25/20 BJP is leading followed by independent

candidate who is also strong UP, Bihar

population is more (Hindi Wasi voters

around 1 Lakh); now everyone knows about

him, he is accessible to all; local issues:

drainage system and cleanliness not proper;

safety and infrastructure is fine

Surat West 55 45 Local issues: Navsara Bazaar roads are not

proper, have potholes; Muslims are pro-

congress large Muslim markets of

furniture; labourers are unhappy since they

are sent far off in the periphery; have

increased travel costs and vikas not

happened for them; safety and work has

happened for others

Majra (Surat) 60 40 Vikas is done-on all fronts has happened;

demon and GST has hurt small businessmen;

patidar not a big factor; Congress rally

people claimed they got paid crowd; BJP

MLA has done work

Radhanpur 55 45 70000 Thakors; 22000-30000 Chaudharies;

rest 13000 Rabari, Prajapati; Alpesh

Thakor is outsider Vs Ghar Ka Thakor

Lavingji Thakor was congress and then

shifted to BJP (is an insider, born there);

Alpesh being a turncoat intitally promised

not to fight; Thakor sena is backing Alpesh;

local guy is more approachable; If 70%

thakors go with Alpesh, Chaudharies and

others will go with BJP; so he loses with

narrow margin

Patan 20 80 Ambaji Nagar: 2007 Anandiben won; 2012

BJP won; here lathi charge took place against

Patidaar 2015; BJP Not Allowed boards were

displayed here; households hoist Congress

flags; people are very agitaged; no one heard

their grievances from BJP (sunvaayi nahi

hui); Hardik patel strong following phone

DPs and covers; anti-BJP vote

Vari Chaka Thakors are second most

dominant caste; realization of cotton price

not happening; anti-GST sentiment;

cleanliness a huge problem; roads not

constructed; women against price rise;

railway line not constructed shares border

with Rajasthan; GIDC not set up as

demanded; BJP MLA not worked

Nadiad (Kheda) 60 40 Pankaj Bhai of BJP has a good track record

has done work, got girls married, is winning

since last 4 tenures; caste consolidation of

Desais and Patels favours the BJP;

cleanliness and traffic jam are big issues;

Bharoch (Bharuch) 60 40 Uttar Bhartiya factor is most dominating;

BJP MLA Dushyant Patel is so good that

even Muslims appreciate him; significant

muslim population (40%) will vote for

Congress;- roads, cleanliness is a big issue;

visited Makhtampur, Mohammadpura,

Jyaneshwar, 5 Batti, Tulsidham Chowkdi;

Modi factor still at play; rally by Modi; 20%

patidars also likely to go with Congress

Vagra (Bharuch)

Jhagadia (Bharuch) 30 70 Chotu Varsava factor, Varsava community

factor, Chotu Varsava personally has done a

lot of work many people in his constituency,

considered Dabang

Rajkot West 50 50 Patidar supporting Indraneil Rajguru,

Indranil Rajguru personally benefitted more

than 1 lakh people, BJPs baston and strong

support of local karyakartas, last 72 hours

crucial, Patidars rallying behind Indranil

Rajguru, Modi factor giving a tough fight to

Rajguru .

Mehsana 45 55 Patidar decide the vote, Deputy CM Nitin

Patel wil find it difficult to retain the seat,

contest will be decided in less than 5000

votes, Radhanpur Chowkdi, Modera

Chowkdi heart belt of Patidar agitation

movement against BJP, Nitin Patel

considered less approachable, when 14 Patel

died in firing Nitin Bhai did not come.

Navsari 70 30 Prime Minister Modis rally in Navsari, a

survey done across population among 1000

people in Navsari

Padra (Vadodara) 50 50 Pond renovation and devt work has

happened; muslim population is more (over

35%); congress floated Muslim candidate;

rural population present;

Cotton farming takes place When Congress

1200 MSp; BJP promised 1200 but in fact

reduced 800

Vaghodia

(Vadodara)

40 60 (BTP) Praful Bhai Vasava of BTP is popular; is PhD

scholar, with a good image educated; high

tribal population (60,000 out of ); Congress

and JDU has not floated any candidate to

support Praful; 1 independent candidate left

BJP has good support will cut BJP votes

Madhubhai Srivastava of BJP won with very

narrow margin; development not done

road construction not proper

Karjan (Vadodara) 40 60 Satish Motibhai Patel sitting MLA of BJP

not worked that much, won last time by

4000 seats; govt hospitals in poor condition

with no ICUs, no good govt. colleges; seats

keep changing

Udhna (Surat) 60 40 Vikas has happened for all including Jhuggi

Jhopris; Muslims also said BJP aayega;

more Marathi population, so Shiv Sena also

floated their candidate Patidar factor

slightly at play; GST and Demon good in the

longer run

Section 3 : KEY OBSERVATION ON GUJARAT ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS

TALKING POINTS

SECTION 3.1

SECTION 3.2 PATIDARS WHO SEEM TO FAVOUR BJP

KADWA-PATIDAR (80%)

LEUVA-PATIDAR (20%)

SECTION 3.3 THE MAIN ISSUE FOR PATIDAR

LAATHI CHARGE INCIDENT OF 2015 (50%)

ANAMAT (30%)

TEACH BJP A LESSON (20%)

SECTION 3.4 SUPPORT FOR GST (ON THE SCALE OF 1 TO

10)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Announcement of GST UPROAR OVER THERATES

REVISION OF GSTRATES OF SOME

ITEMS

NOVEMBER END

0 2 4 6 8 10

MANDI IN BUSINESSESS

UNEMPLOYMENT OF YOUTH

PRICE REALISATION OF COTTON

PRICE RISE EFFECT ON WOMEN

SECTION 3.5 ISSUES IN RURAL AREAS

SECTION 3.6 VIKAS GANDO THAYO CHHE vs. VIKAS THAYO

CHHE

VIKAS THAYO CHHE(75%)

VIKAS GANDO THAYOCHHE (25%)

SECTION 4 : FACTORS INFLUENCING BOTH MAJOR PARTIES IN GUJARAT

SECTION 5 : PMOO MODEL ANALYSIS FOR THE SEAT OF MEHSANA

SIGNTATURE

Pradip Bhandari (Founder & CEO)

Akriti Bhatia (Founding Partner)

Team Contributors

1- Jai Mistry

2- Anirudh Sharma

3- Sparsh Upadhyay

4- Rushi Bhimani

5- Shadab Khan

6- Vaibhav Bajpai

7- Amit Pandey

8- Arya Swami

Special Thanks To Raghav Awasthi and Shri Bharat Wariavwalla