m7103_ps1_prakashabhijeet

8/11/2019 M7103_PS1_prakashAbhijeet

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Individual Assignments Logistics System:-

4.1

A)

B) There is very minute trend observed in the sales of beer for three years

C) The data shows a seasonality as the sales are taking their peak values in July every year.

D) The respective crests i.e high sales of beer in the month of July 1996 is comparatively much higher

than respective sales in the same month of other years. Though there is a regular crest in the graph

during summer season and during December month of winter season, but the crest for the same in

Year 1996 peak much higher than same for other months.

Apart from this there is a small crest in April 1996 which shows an anomaly in the beer sales from

the same month sales in previous months.

E) Using 5 point moving average the Forecast for Jan 1997 is 152.2 and the forecast for same in June

1997 is 152.2.

4.2)

The forecast for 1997 for the demand of CZ43 using 3 MA is 94.

The forecast for same using exponential smoothing (Holt’s winters) model, as the historical data

showed a trend is 96. For the calculation purpose I have assumed the value of alpha to be .2 and

Beta to be .05.

4.7) a) The values of a^6 is 38 and b^6 is 0.8. I have used the equation number 4.37 and 4.38 to arrive

at this answer giving successive values from 0 to -4 as data moves upward. For calculation purposes I

have taken the value of alpha to be 0.2 and beta to be 0.05.

b) The forecast for respective weeks is

40.588

42.55252

44.99861

48.0555

49.31045

50.31131

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

J a n u a r y

F e b r u a r y

M a r c h

A p r i l

M a y

J u n e

J u l y

A u g u s t

S e p t e m b e r

O c t o b e r

N o v e m b e r

D e c e m b e r

J a n u a r y

F e b r u a r y

M a r c h

A p r i l

M a y

J u n e

J u l y

A u g u s t

S e p t e m b e r

O c t o b e r

N o v e m b e r

D e c e m b e r

J a n u a r y

F e b r u a r y

M a r c h

A p r i l

M a y

J u n e

J u l y

A u g u s t

S e p t e m b e r

O c t o b e r

N o v e m b e r

D e c e m b e r

Chart Title



51.93888

55.35155

59.41818

61.92729

The forecast made in 20th

week ie the forecast for 21st week is 67.5.

4.8)

b) Forecast for feb 1998 and June 1998 is 221.40 and 48 respectively using the Winter’s model with

the value of constants as stated in the problem.

Using the equations 4.37 and 4.38 as stated in the book the forecast for the same are 237 and 65.88

Segmentation problem

1. Percentage represented by top 20 PC of SKUS - 82.08%

2. Percentage represented by bottom 50 PC of SKUS- 2.9%

3. % represented by top 20% of family- 91.09%

4. % represented by bottom 50% of family -0.9%

5. How often SKUS are repeated - I have included the columns for SKUS in the excel function

using COUNTIF function. In total 353 SKUS repeat 903 times in total across different wards.

6. Yeah the wards behave differently as from the given data we can derive that segmentation

as per ward is not fit for ABC analysis.

The reason why they behave differently is because Top 20% of the items kept in wards only

account for 50% of the total expenditure of the item. Thus segmentation as per wards is not fit

for ABC analysis.

Another reason behind this abnormal behaviour is that division of the clinical items amongst

wards is particularly based on usage i.e the segmentation in wards is basically functional. So

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

120.0%

0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% 120.0%

Cumulative %



when the products are differentiated on functional basis the ABC analysis which takes monetary

value of the product into analysis won’t fit in.

7.

When the emphasis is on the monetary value of the items segmentation as per Family make

sense.

When the emphasis is on function of the products the segmentation as per ward makes sense.

When emphasis is on Function and value of the item then it makes sense to segment items as

per Ward and family.

m7103_ps1_prakashabhijeet

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