MOLYBDENUM:

Heady 14% Rise Seen A projected 14% rise in capital invest­ment this year over the 1968 level augurs well for molybdenum's future. For it's a matter of record that the pattern of molybdenum consumption closely matches that of capital spend­ing, Ian MacGregor, president and chief executive officer of American Metal Climax, Inc., told the Security Analysts of San Francisco.

During the coming 10-year period, he foresees a rise in molybdenum con­sumption by a steady 6 to 8% per year. Such a rate of increase would put the 1979 demand for the metal throughout the Free World "at some­where between 225 million and 315 million pounds." In 1968, consump­tion approached 120 million pounds, a 164% increase on the 45 million pounds that were consumed 10 years earlier.

Free World molybdenum supply should just about keep in step with this burgeoning growth, Mr. Mac­Gregor expects. He pegs the 1979 capacity level at about 240 million pounds. "There is also what we call probable and possible capacity that could boost supply to more than 300 million pounds," he notes. However, while some of this additional capacity probably will be brought in, it isn't likely that all of it will, he adds. "We believe that there will be an adequate supply, but not necessarily a great surplus. As a consequence, molyb­denum prices will continue to dem­onstrate a pattern of steadiness," he conjectures.

Molybdenum goes into a wide va­riety of products. It is a key ingredi­ent of alloys used for making construc­tion, mining, and metalworking ma­chinery, heavy trucks and buses, all types of energy-converting equip­ment, and jet engines. The element is also the basis of catalysts, pig­ments, and lubricants, as well as spe­cial components that are used in the electronics industry.

The fortunes of the silvery-white metal are tied closely to those of the ferrous metals industry, which now accounts for well above 80% of the element's consumption. Construction steel and stainless steel together used 75 million pounds of molybdenum last year. According to Mr. MacGregor, that level should swell to 145 million pounds by the end of the coming decade.

But he looks to high-strength, low-alloy steels as providing the fastest growing outlet for molybdenum in the years immediately ahead. These steels—used in pipes, trucks, trailers, railroad cars, ships, bridges, and the like—are currently using molybdenum

at a rate of about 600,000 pounds annually. "We expect molybdenum consumption in this market to grow at an annual average of 30% between now and 1979," he claims. By then, he foresees at least 10 million pounds a year of the element going into these steels.

Molybdenum's next fastest growing market, Mr. MacGregor says, will be superalloys. Demand for these likely will increase at an average rate of 10.5% per year between now and 1979. "The spectacular growth of gas turbine engines for military and ci­vilian aircraft has been the principal factor in determining increased molyb­denum requirements in superalloys," he notes. (Molybdenum is one of the most effective elements for increasing

Amax's MacGregor

Keeping in step for the decade

high-temperature strength properties of iron- and nickel-based alloys.) The trend to higher temperatures for gas turbine engines has resulted in an in­crease in the average molybdenum content of many such alloys. The Amax president expects that 20 mil­lion pounds of molybdenum will be consumed in superalloys by 1979 com­pared to 5.9 million pounds of molyb­denum consumed last year.

POLYPROPYLENE:

Excess Supply by 1971 Like sun-bronzed surfers shooting the curl, U.S. polypropylene producers are moving with everything in perfect balance: Supply is tight with de­mand; producers are operating at ca­pacity; inventories are low; and all resin grades are selling at list prices. By 1971, though, there may be a wipe-out.

Leading polypropylene producers are scheduling new capacities which,

when on stream two years from now, may oversupply the market and prompt rounds of price cutting. The general-purpose homopolymer, for ex­ample, is now listed at 21 cents a pound.

Enjay Chemical's George Rizzo, marketing coordinator, polyolefins, comments to C&EN: "Even without new competitors, resin supply will swing ahead of demand in 1971, maybe late 1970."

During 1971, polypropylene resin sales will total about 1.55 billion pounds but average production capac­ity for the year may exceed 2 billion pounds. This year, producers fore­cast sales of 1.1 billion pounds to be in tight balance with an average pro­duction capacity of 1.2 billion pounds. Sales have grown from 374 million pounds in 1965 to 876 million pounds in 1968.

Among current expansions, Her­cules plans to build a new 180 million pound-a-year polypropylene plant at Lake Charles, La., to be on stream early in 1971. At that location, the company has just brought new pro­duction units into operation, bring­ing total polypropylene capacity there to 370 million pounds a year. The company also plans to increase the capacity of its polyolefins plant at Parlin, N.J., to 100 million pounds a year.

Avisun is just beginning construc­tion this month of a new 150 million pound-a-year plant at Chocolate Bayou, Tex., to be on stream in late 1970. It is now completing expan­sion of its New Castle, Del., plant from 200 to 250 million pounds.

Newcomers during the next few years will probably contribute to the oncoming overcapacity. Phillips, for one, which recently shelved its plans to make polypropylene at Guayama, P.R. (C&EN, April 7, page 20) , will likely soon build polypropylene ca­pacity in the continental U.S.

CHEMICAL STOCKS:

Market Decline Hits Hard Chemical stocks are back in their Wall Street doghouse. After showing some surprising strength last fall, when they outperformed the market, they have been hit hard by the general market decline that started just over four months ago.

At the close of business one week ago C&EN's Stock Price Index for the seven biggest basic chemical makers stood 13.8% below its 1968 high of Dec. 3. The C&EN Index for 21 smaller chemical companies was even worse off, down 16.8% from its 1968 high, also reached in December.

In comparison, the Dow Jones In-

APPIL 14, 1969 C&EN 15