predavanja dr. slaus 2008 (1)

8/2/2019 Predavanja Dr. Slaus 2008 (1)

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TEMELJNE KARAKTERISTIKE ZNANOSTI

1) Objektivnost

Znanost je ono to se moeeksperimentom oboriti.

Karl Popper

Znanost je odraz, objanjenje prirodei drutva. Zakljuak do kojeg je doao

istraiva X mora biti potvren od svakogistraivaa Y kada je izvren u istim uvjetima.


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to ako nije mogue ponoviti pokus?

Na dubljoj razini (kvantna fizika) svakomjerenje utjee na opaani objektmijenja ga todovodi u pitanje ponavljanje u istim uvjetima.

Ako vrijedi Popperova definicija onda povijestnije znanost, ali da li je teorija evolucije, da li je

kozmologija?

Naravno da u Popperovom smislu matematika

nije znanost, kao ni logika.

Znanost, Science , Philosophia naturalis,

ali social science, political science.


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ovjek i znanost.

Znatielja ---- Igra

Istraivanje poticano znatieljom(curiosity driven research).


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2) Kumulativnost

na ramenima divova (Isaac Newton) i patuljaka

razlika izmeu umjetnosti i znanosti:

Slap -Dobria Cesari

Tee i tee, tee jedan slap;to u njem znai moja mala kap?

Gle jedna duga u vodi se stvara,I sja i dre u hiljadu ara.Taj san u slapu da bi mogo sjati,

I moja kap pomae ga tkati.


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Doprinos neukih i uskih specijalista

(Jose Ortega y Gasset)

Velike grupe istraivaa, preko 100 koautora,samo nekolicina moe prezentirati rad iji su autori

industrija proizvodnje znanja.


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3)Univerzalnost

Zakoni fizike vrijede u itavom svemiru i od poetka svemira.(Diracova pretpostavka da objasni omjer jakosti elektrine sile i sile

gravitacije koji je upravo jednak starosti svemira: 13.7 0.3milijardi godina - izraenoj u prirodnim jedinicama (vrijeme preletasvjetlosti preko atomske jezgre):

3x10-15 m/ 3x108 ms-1 = 10-23s)mijenjanjem jedne od temeljnih fizikih konstanti utvreno je danije ispravna. konstante su vremenski konstante tijekom trajanjanaeg svemira.)


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Zato konstante imaju upravo ovevrijednosti??

Da li u nekom drugom svemiru vrijede

neki drugi zakoni?

Zakoni biologije: mogu je ivotkoji se ne bi temeljio na ugljiku, nego na siliciju.

Drave imaju razliite pojedine zakone.Povezanost zakona s kulturom. Ima oko 5000

razliitih kultura.

Da li postoji jedna civilizacija?

Usaglaavanje zakonodavstava u EU.


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4) Internacionalnost

U svojoj monumentalnoj povijesti znanosti G. Sarton je

ustvrdio da su sve kulture, sve nacije doprinijele razvoju znanosti.

Slino tvrde svi suvremeni povjesniari znanosti: npr: J. Bernal, J.

Needham i Derek de Sola Price.

Uloga migracije znanstvenika u povijesti znanosti braindrain, npr. odlazak progonjenih Nestorijanaca u ranom Srednjem

vijeku, slino pripadnici raznih kranskih sekti/ heretici,upoznavanje Europe sa znanstvenim dostignuima ArapaKriarskiratovi, migracije uzrokovane vjerskim ratovima u 16 i 17 stoljeu uEuropi, odlazak znanstvenika iz Europe za vrijeme Hitlera.


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Achievements and successProgress in science and novel understanding, e.g.:

quantum physics; theory of relativity: special andgeneral; Standard model and its limitations: WMAP:only 4% of ordinary matter, 23% dark matter (?),73% dark energy (?), age of our universe =13.7 0.3

Gyear. Paradigmatic change!nanosciences and their relevance in many areas;DNA; advent of genetic engineering; advances in lifesciences; brain researchadvances in chemistry and geosciences;

advances in psychology and social sciencesConsilienceadvances in all sci disciplines,

interdisciplinarity, transdisciplinarity.


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Advances in technology, e.g.:

Information-communication technology(ICT); advances in life science technologies:CT, PET, MRI, synthetic biology.New scientific disciplines, e.g. nuclear

medicine, bioarchaelogy, scientometrics.Our understanding and construction ofinstruments, and development of novelinstitutions, e.g.

LHC; Planck satellite;CERN; EMBO


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Consequences

rapid chages, (change) < (humanlifespan), and much faster than ever

globalization interconnectedness of the world

much longer life expectancy and longerhealthy active life duration (thruout theworld) demographic transition

increased quality of life (thruout the world)increased freedom in the world (are our

measurement reliable?)


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The contemporary world:

globalization science generatedTh. Friedman: 3 phases of globalization: 1) driven by states,

2) by states and MNC and 3) by and empowering individuals rapid changesscience generated

( we would be amoebas if there were no change) characterized by uncertainties and instabilities

number of Earths required to provide resources used byhumanity and to absorb their emissions for each year:1970 1980 2005 2007 Goal: 2050

0.86 1.00 1.25 1.27 1.00 (???)

ENVIRONMENT - ENERGY - FOOD - WATER

World is dangerously in a state of overshoot.

Increasing dissatisfaction of the public with governance


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People are the real wealth of nations. Thebasic aim of development is to enlargehuman freedom and choices so that peoplelive full and creative lives. This must benefiteverybody equitably.The State of Human Development, Human developmentindicators, 2004, p.127, UNDP

We add: people - healthy, educated, activeand happy, living in a society of socialjustice and social cohesion in a healthy

environment assuring sustainabledevelopment. Not less - not more.


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Bolonjski proces = vraanje korijenima

razvoja znanosti i obrazovanja.

Sutina Bolonjskog procesa:

- osigurati temeljno fundamentalno obrazovanje koje

omoguava u svakom trenutku dalnju izobrazbu. (vanostmatematike, ICT pismenosti, stranih jezika i

logike);

- omoguiti to ranije zaposlenje obrazovanih strunjaka-osposobiti osobu za sudjelovanje u procesu izrade strategija

i donoenja odluka (policy making, decision making).(iroko obrazovanje, npr. fiziar mora znati pravo iekonomiju, ali i obrnuto).


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Znanstvenici komuniciraju i za vrijeme sukobanjihovih drava:npr. Davy je iao u Francusku;

Hladni rat - Pugwash.

Znanstvena istraivanja ukljuuju znanstvenike

iz mnogo zemalja, koji se nekada i rijetko susreu.

To je potaklo razvitak interneta i razvitak www uCERNu.

Postotak znanstvenih radova s koautorimaiz vie nego jedne zemlje naroito je visok meuradovima koji imaju visoki utjecaj.

Z t di i li t d j


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Znanstvene discipline, grane, znanstvena podruja

Jedinstvo znanosti(consilienceskoiti zajedno plima die sve lae)

Jedinstvo znanja

ZNANJE:

Cjelokupna postojea znanost i tehnologija (tehnika)Istraivanje i razvojResearch and (Technological) Development

tekua i planirana istraivanjastruktura istraivako-razvojne djelatnosti (I+R):organizacijapolitika I+R djelatnosti, donoenje odluka,planiranje I+R djelatnosti,

mogu li se i kako definirati prioriteti- sustav vrednovanja

i sustav vrijednosti.


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Obrazovanjecjeloivotno, sveobuhvatno i za sve ljude

Kultura

Znanost generira brze promjene i

globalizaciju.

Istraivanje je u naim genima. Onda, da lije globalizacija pred-programirana?


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Organizacija I+R djelatnosti

Univerziteti i obrazovne institucije

Istraivake institucije:i) mono-, multi i inter- disciplinarne institucije voene

znatieljom,

ii) istraivanje odreeno ciljem (mission oriented)

Razvojno-istraivake institucije(uglavnom u gospodarstvu)

Sredita za izradu strategija(Think tank, Think and Do Tanks)

Mree (Networks)


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Politika I+R djelatnosti

Znanstvena politika

StrunjaciJavnost Politiari

(kratkovidnost strunjaka nae ponaanje kada idemo lijenikurazliiti sustav vrijednosti stranake politike nezainteresiranost

i strah od znanja.

Najvei napredak ostvaren je u znanosti.Najuspjenijadjelatnost ovjeka jeznanost.

Interakcija, isprepletenost znanja i politike

Planiranje I+R djelatnosti

M.Polanyi - J. Bernal polemika o mogunosti planiranje znanosti

i odreivanju prioriteta.


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SUSTAV VRIJEDNOSTI

ideje (IDEAS) (selekcija dobrih ideja i proces u kojem i loe idejeimaju svoju vrijednost i uzrokuju daleko manju tetu nego npr.ideologije)znatielja i igra

izgradnja kapaciteta (CAPACITY BUILDING) ulogaizgradnji ureaja, mjernih metoda, procesa; organizacija

inkrementalnih istraivanjaistina (? znanost nije dogma. Nema kraja znanosti. Kumulativnost

i objektivnost)

rjeavanje problema (problemi nastaju i rjeavani su u

kompleksnom prostoru, a znanost ima odreeno podruje)od ovjeka i drutva, za ovjeka i drutvo socijalna isocijetalna dimenzija I+R djelatnosti

LJUDI, SURADNJA PEOPLE - COOPERATION


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EUROPE OF KNOWLEDGE

The knowledge base is Europes richest resource

Lisbon and Barcelona objective: 3% of GDP:

R&D expenditure 06-04-05: proposal for the 7th Framework

Programme: Building the Europe of Knowledge.

ALLEA: Investing in Knowledge in Europe


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Basic or applied?

Distinction is less clear-cut than is often suggested; newterm: frontier research

Difference in orientation: science generated and conclusion

oriented versus problem induced and solution oriented Free science driven research: intrinsic relevance:augmentation of knowledge

But also essential for the stimulation of economic growthand social welfare (instrumental relevance); Maxwell,

polymer chemistry, physiological research, transistor,WWW

Fundamental research unpredictable and risky (??) Applied and instrumental research indispensible as well


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European Research Council

Independent body run by scientists, intended to fundresearch proposals on the sole criterion of scientificexcellence

Should be modelled on the principles of self-governance(cf National Research Councils) Budget of the order of the larger national research councils

(between 1.5 and 2 B. per annum) Frontier research as supported by ERC should not be used

for solidarity purposes. Specific measures needed (use ofsolidarity instruments and structural funds) to ensure thatthe economically less advanced countries will in duecourse draw level with the rest of Europe


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Transmodern Business

Knowledge SocietyTRANSMODERN

Danger

Industrial leftovers who havenot grasped the changeAgrarian

premodern

Agrarianleftovers

Culturalcreatives

IndustrialMODERN

Sept. 11,

2001?

New Women-MenPartnership Society

End ofPatriarchal Society

Transmodern Business

Knowledge SocietyTRANSMODERN

Danger

Industrial leftovers who havenot grasped the changeAgrarian

premodern

Agrarianleftovers

Culturalcreatives

IndustrialMODERN

Sept. 11,

2001?

New Women-MenPartnership Society

End ofPatriarchal Society

Transition to Transmodern

Death ?


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THE END OF INDUSTRIAL

WORK In 1900, in Europe, 87% were working in

agriculture

In 2005, 4% still work in agriculture, andtheir output is + 400% 1970-2000, in USA, the number of factory

workers (industrial) has declined from 33%to 17%.

In 2010, US industrial work = 12%.


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THE END OF INDUSTRIAL

WORK II In Europe the data are similar: Factories are

replacing manpower with machines.

Example: Sugar factory near Brussels, from5000 workers to 5 + robots

The same trend is everywhere.


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END OF INDUSTRIAL WORK II

But also in China, 1995-2002: 15% of allfactory work places have been eliminated,

in 7 years! In 2020, worldwide less than 2% of the

entire workforce will still be engaged in

factory work, in 2020. (J. Rifkin) It is the end of the industrial work.


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OTHER POLITICAL

ARGUMENTS US: Robert REICH US Sec. of Labor and

Laura dAndrea Tyson, US National

Economic Council BOTH have promised that US will create

jobs for all in the knowledge society.

RIFKIN thinks this is false. New Knowledge Jobs YES but for an elite.


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HUMANS = ASSET = CAPITAL

In Industrial management, Humans=cost In Knowledge society: Humans = asset

Management shifts 180 towards humancenteredness

More creativity - centred,

More gender - centredMore culture - centredMore inclusive and social


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A NEW DEBATE

If Human capital becomes crucial

If the post industrial logic is INCLUSIVE

If including immigrants could be increasingthe Human capital and creativity of the

business

If social action become a very importantintangible asset for the Business


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NEW DEBATE ON ACTIVITY

If those trends are confirmed, The debate could completely RENEWED

Other form of activity ? in networks, at home? Other type of activities ?

like cleaning the environment

Like social healing activities Other forms of remuneration ?

Alternative currencies?


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MAIN OBSTACLE :

UNDERSTANDING the SHIFT The main obstacle is that governments and

economists continue to reflect in the old

categories Citizens are not told about the huge

transformation going on.

Although they perceive it subconsciously They Know


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Intangible assets ?

Intangibles assets = Know how,

Reputation, Trust in the company,

Relations with personnel,

Relations with clients,

Relations with stakeholders, Relations with neighbourhood +nature

Relations with civil society


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Measuring intangible assets?

Stock exchange measurements are still looking atfinancial tangible assets (quantitative) but theyincreasingly look at intangible assets(qualitative).

Today a company is measured more and more byits intangible assets.

Example: Mens Wear USA. & World BusinessAcademy, Spirit in Business.

See also Neskey: www.neskey.com
http://www.neskey.com/http://www.neskey.com/


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Two EU strategies

for the Knowledge society Strategy 1 (S1): Knowledge society

This is a post industrial and post capitalist

society (Peter Drucker), because the tool ofproduction has changed.

Strategy2 (S2): Information society Thisis still an industrial society with moreservices + more ICT (information andcommunication technol.)


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LISBON I strategy was S1

Lisbon strategy at the beginning was S1 Knowledge approach . It presupposed a

post-industrial approach. It has failed because nobody explained the

post-industrial thing!!

And thus we have used a new approach anda new tool with old concepts, oldmanagement, and an old vision. Failure.


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Books

Peter DRUCKER: Post capitalist society, HarperBusiness, New York, 1993.

Verna ALLEE: The future of knowledge ElsevierScience, 2003, USA.

Jeremy RIFKIN: The European Dream: when Europesvision of the future is silently eclipsing the Americandream Penguin 2004.

Ray ANDERSON: Mid Course correction 1998.www.chelseagreen.com (Interface)

World Business Academy: www.worldbusiness.org Spirit in Business: www.spiritinbusiness.org Neskey on intangible measurements : www.neskey.com


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Rodrigo Rato: Greatest threats we face today are:

1) financial instability economic crisis ?

2) demographic transition to 10 G and then to 2 G ?3) climate change (Weather of Mass Destruction)(Annual conf. The Club if Rome, Madrid 2007)

Ratos dangers and threats are recent, andmany new threats will appear.

Add terrorism + organized crime + rogue

and failed-states + totalitarian regimes. But, many new opportunities andoptions will appear.


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Prepare for threats!Some threats/events are highly unlikely, but can

have profound effects Black Swan (N.N. Taleb) 3rd generation warfare think the unthinkable

In a global world - problems and threatscannot be contained, they affect the entire world

Present world is not fully global it is not

global when it has to react, and when it has toanticipate, stimulate and generate desirable

changes. Then becomes fragmented.


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CONSEQUENCES

PROBABILITY

MAJOR THREATS TO HUMANKIND

GL

OB

ALI Z

AT

ION

MAD

WMD

withterr

or.

clima

te

cha

nge

DESTRUCTION

OF CIVILIZATION

100 %

-

_

NATURAL


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CONSEQUENCES

PROBABILITY

G

LOBALIZATION

MAD

WMD

withterr

orism

xen

o

bio

cult

ure

localwar

clim

ate

chang

e

health

inadequategovernance

poverty

po

lluti

on

DESTRUCTION

OF CIVILIZATION

100 %

-

_

NATURAL


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Most of the problems and threats we are currentlyfacing cannot be approached much less solved by military

means.

Is military deterrence useful at all? It resulted in:

mutually assured destruction - MAD (nuclear arsenals100 x > required for any deterrent purpose).

(No evidence that MAD worked as a stabilizing force (G. Prins).

He claims that the threat of using nuclear weapons worked in one

case only: it forced the USA to provide Israel with spare partsduring the war, when Israel threatened to use his nuclear force to

prevent defeat.)


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Global peace index uses 24 different indicators, covers

140 states (Univ of Sydney + Economist Intelligence Unit

with support of J. Carter, D. Tutu, Mary Robinson):

Top: Iceland, Denmark, Norway, New Zealand, Japan,

Ireland (1.1761.410). Bottom: Iraq #140 (3.514)NW states:

France #36 (1.71) behind e.g. Slovenia #16 (1.49) and justahead of Vietnam #37 (1.72)

UK #49 (1.80), while Croatia #60 (1.93), B&H #66 (1.97)

USA #97(2.23) behind Syria #75(2.0), Serbia #85(2.1)

Iran #105(2.3), India #107 (2.36), Pakistan #127 (2.7),Russia #131 (2.8), N.Korea #133 (2.9), Israel #136 (3.0)


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The contemporary world is:very complex,

interconnected and interdependent,

rapid nonlinear changes in many features,characterized by uncertainties and instabilities.

We are influencing environment and our own evolution:Human species is now responsible for the evolution of all life on Earth.

(J. Huxley, Nobel laureate, first director general of UNESCO)Man is an architect of himself. (Pietro della Mirandola)

Our civilization is becoming the first global civilization. Globalizationrepresents shrinking in space and in time, where changes in a small

subsystem cause effects in large and remote systems.

Globalization and rapid changes are both science-generated.


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END OF SCIENCE ??

U N I V E R S E

Atoms 4 %Dark matter 23 %Dark energy 73 %

WHY DOES UNIVERSE EXIST AT ALL ?FINE TUNNING: - basic constants (c, h, G, e.....)

- forces, energies

DID GOD HAVE ANY CHOICE IN CREATING THEWORLD ?


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(instrument/

structure building)

(inkremental research)

(curiosity driven research)

yx

z


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1515

frontier research

(instrument/

structure building)



yx

z

15


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1515

frontier research

20

breakthru (new literacy)

5

25

(instrument/

structure building)



yx

z

10

15

K-intensive

innovative G


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The income gap between the fifth of the worlds people living in therichest countries and the fifth in the poorest countries

increased from 30:1 in 1960

to 60:1 in 1990and to 74:1 in 1997

The assets of the top four world billionaires surpass the combined GDP ofall least developing countries and their 600 million people.

Undernourishment in the industrial world averages less than 2.5%; itreaches over 40% in Central, East and South Africa.

Global pharmaceutical sales and disease burden are unevenly distributed:Europe and Middle East represent 15.4% of the share of total

pharmaceutical sales in 2002 and have 19.4% of the share of total disease

burden,

- The Americas: 76.3% and 9.8%, respectively- for Africa shares in sales is barely 0.3%

and in diseases 24.3%,- Asia-Pacific 5.7% and 46.4%, respectively.


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Failures and problems characterizing the 20.c.

Use of war, military and violence.During 20.c. 400 million men, women and children killed

by

their own governments, more than during wars

(Rummel).

States do not seem to be capable of protecting their owncitizens, nor assuring them their basic human needs.

Failure of governancemission impossible?About 200 nation(so caled)-states + 600,000 TNC

(with wealth often larger than some medium nation-states) + 50,000 international civil society

organizations + 5,000-10,000 different cultures

(languages - 90% with less than 10,000 persons).


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Old tools from old box still used, e.g. balance of power,deterence, enemies and friends concept.

Clash of civilizations (of cultures??)

New enemies and new problems: terrorism. Decrease in social capital.

Social cohesion:Inequality compatible with the axiompeople are the wealth of nationsPlato: common good ratio rich : poor = 5:1,

J.P. Morgan: bosses should have not more than 20 times

the salary of their workers.Global Inequalities Fades as Global Economy Grows ?!

Xavier Sala-i-Martin 2002


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R.F. Kennedy We will find neither national purpose norpersonal satisfaction in an endless amassing if worldly

goods. We cannot measure national achievements byGDP, since GDP includes air pollution, cigarette

advertisement and ambulances to clear our highways

after carnage. It counts special locks for our doors and

jails for people who break them. GDP includesdestruction of redwoods and of Lake Superior. GDP

grows with the production of napalm and nuclear

warheads. It does not include the health of our families,

the quality of their education, it is indifferent to the safetyof our streets... In short, GDP measures everything except

what makes life worthwhile.


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20.c is a measured century.

Feasibility, Reliability and Uncertainty

Robustness INDICATORS Input / Output

(GDP, HDI ) quantitative qualitative (case studies)

Inadequacies of GDP HDI, ISEW, GPI,...?

USA 1950 1970 1990 2000

GDP/c 11,672 18,773 28,434 36,595

GPI/c 8,611 13,034 14,893 15,035

Beyond GDP - EU and CoR, Nov 2007


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0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

1960-62 2000-02

GDP per capita in the poorest and the richest

countries

20 poorest countries 20 richest countries


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Significant successes have been achieved:

- the end of the Cold War,- spread of democracy,

-apparent robustness of the cultural diversity and

-some improvements in the quality of life.

The world average calorie per day per capita hasincreased from 2250 Kcal in 1960 to 2750 Kcal in

1997 and for developing world from

2100 Kcal to 2680 Kcal(FAOSTAT 2000).


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1.1. Progress and Public opinion

Enormous progress has been achieved:

- in 1893 only New Zealand could be considered a

true democracy,- in 1972 there were 43 free, 38 partly free and 69 notfree countries,

- in 2002 there were 89 free countries, 56 partly freeand 47 not free.


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Survey Free Partly free Not free World

Year Popul. in

billions

No of

Countr.

Popul. in

billions

No of

Countr.

Popul. in

billions

No of

Countr.

Popul. in

billions

No of Countr.

1981 1.61 (36%) 0.97 (22%) 1.91(42%) 4.49

1991 2.09 (39%) 76 1.49 (28%) 65 1.75

(33%)

42 5.33 183

2002 2.50 (41%) 85 1.46 (24%) 59 2.17

(35%)

48 6.13 192

FREEDOM IN THE WORLD


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However, citizens are not satisfied with their politicalsystems. Gallup International's 2002 Voice of the Peoplesurvey of 36,000 citizens across 47 countries on six

continents provided therefore, results statisticallyrepresentative of the views of 1.4 billion citizens.

Only 7% of the respondents strongly agree with the statement thatthe world is going in the right direction, and additional 23%

somewhat agree with that statement, a mere 30% to be comparedwith 36% in the year 2001.

61% of the respondents say that globalization has a positive effect

onthem and on their families and that percentage increased from 2001

when it has been 55%.

Fi 4 T t i I tit ti t O t i S i t ' B t I t t


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Fig 4 Trust in Institutions to Operate in Society's Best Interest

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Armed Forces

NGO's

Education System

UN

Religious Institutions

Police

Health System

WTO

Government

Press/Media

Trade Unions/labour

WB

Legal System

IMF

Global Companies

Large nat. companies

Parliament/CongressA lot/Some trust

Little/No trust


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Public confidence in leadership of selected

institutions:1973-98

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

Medicine Sci.Commun. Education Supreme court

TV Press Organized labor Average


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Country Governed by the Will of the People?

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Total Sample

Mid East

Latin America

Asia/Pacific

E & C Europe

Africa

European Union

North America

Non-EU Europe

Yes

No

3 Gl b l ld


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1.3. Global world

Our civilization is becoming the first global civilization.

Globalization represents shrinking in space and in time, wherechanges in a small subsystem through nonlinear processes cause

effects in large and remote systems making our world a singleorganism.

As never before, the future of each one of us depends on the good of all.(Nobel laureates 2000)

Our safety, our prosperity, indeed our freedom are indivisible.(Kofi Annan, 2005)

Globalization happens in all dimensions: political, economic, social,cultural and biological with both positive and negative consequences.


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1905- Annus mirabilis:

Photoelectric effect - Nobel PrizeBrownian motion PhD

Special theory of relativity and E = m c2

Many applications:

How useful is useless


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GLOBAL WARMING

Relatively small increase in temperature could lead to meltingof polar icebergs changing the salinity of Northern Sea and

modifying the course of the Gulf Stream - drastically changingthe climate in Western Europe.

If we postpone considering global warming until itbecomescertain, then it is already too late to do anything - totally novel

situation.

Old political mechanisms are not only useless butcounterproductive.

Global climate change has been calledweather of mass destructionWMD.


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Development measured by human development index (HDI)

is related with energy consumption:

HDI increases rapidly with energy consumption until thisconsumption reaches about 3 tons of oil equivalent per capita

per year (toe/ (capita year)). Above that level there isno correlation between HDI and energy.

If all countries would achieve the consumption of 3 tonstoe/ (capita year) and if the world population would be

constant, then by 2030 the energy consumption would be doubled.If world population would increase, as expected,

to 8.1 billion, energy consumption would

increase by a factor of 2.6.


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Precise measurements of worlds ocean temperatures over

40 years showed that the upper layer of the sea is warmerand that warming is anthropogenic, i.e. to increases in

greenhouse gasses (GHG) emissions.

Global warming will have serious consequencesfor 40 poor countries with a population of about 2 billions,since it will reduce the area of land available for farming.

FAO emphasized that global warming will lead tointensification of animal disease and plant pests.

The consequences are:


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- increased energy in weather systems with the redistributionof patterns of rainfall and desertification,

- rise in sea temperature causing sea level rise and decreasingthe oceanic capacity of carbon-dioxide absorption triggering

a positive feed-back in a global warming process,

-accelerating melting of glaciers lowering ocean salinity,reducing the reflection of sunlight and so triggering another

positive feed-back,

- thawing of tundra permafrost releases significant amountof methane - even more powerful GHG than carbondioxide - making this a third positive feed-back loop,

- as water surface temperature increases the abilityof planktons to absorb CO2 is reduced,

-as temperature and carbon-dioxide concentration levelspass a critical threshold, land-based bio-systems switch

from being a net carbon-dioxide sink to a net source.


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There is a critical point at which the feed-back

loops become dominant and render further increase intemperature independent of any reduction in

human-generated GHG.It is essential that this threshold should not be crossed.

From this case we ought to learn a general lesson:if we consider time dependence of any input to the

development, it is necessary to search for alternative

and different inputs as soon as we approachthe inflection point anddefinitely much earlier than

we reach a maximum.


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2. KNOWLEDGE AND CULTURES


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A political power shift: from political powerdominated by military, and then by military and wealth

and then more and more depending on knowledge,it is now dominated by knowledge (A. Toffler).

Therefore, the political strategy should beto increase knowledge.

A term triple helix - signifying society, scienceand economy intertwining - has been introduced.

Knowledge society is a new paradigm intertwiningknowledge with decision- and policy-making,

politics and governance.

Knowledge is the tool in addressing problems,


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Knowledge is the tool in addressing problems,dangers and threats. It is the approach for realizing

the opportunities we are being offered.

Knowledge is science and technology, ongoing andplanned research and technological development,

and education.

Knowledge includes language, literature and art.

An important caveat is required.While R&D, science and technology

are global and can be standardized, thesum of them all - knowledge is understood andcontextualized within a specific cultural system.


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Contemporary science shows similarities

with ancient wisdom:

If we ask whether the position of an electron remains unchanged,

we have to say: no. If we ask whether it changes with time, wehave to say: no. If we ask whether the electron is at rest, we have

to say: no. If we ask whether it moves, we have to say: no

(Oppenheimer)

Upanishads It moves. It moves not. It is far and it is close. It is

inside and outside of everything.

HOW DO WE BUILD A KNOWLEDGE SOCIETY?


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HOW DO WE BUILD A KNOWLEDGE SOCIETY?

Our history is marked by a dominant resource used at a specifictime, e.g. iron in the Iron Age, land and physical labor during

feudalism, capital and labor during early capitalism, oil inthe 20th century. Possession of these resources meant

political power and - since all of these resources are relativelyscarce - history has been characterized by continuous fight for them.

The essential resource of todays world is knowledge.

Knowledge is inexhaustible and is increased by sharing.

The emphasis is not on the knowledge anybody has, but on theknowledge one produces.

Other resources existed independently and separately ofpeople, knowledge resides exclusively in people. Therefore,

it is clear that the greatest wealth of any society is its people,its citizens.

4 MORE THAN COOPERATION


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4. MORE THAN COOPERATION

The Eskimos have a sayingThe best place to store food is in another person belly.

Social groups and social interactions play important rolesin the evolution of humans generating cooperation even

empathy and love, and competition even animosity and fighting.

In their quest for survival and reproductions

animals behave against the other members of their speciesin the same way as game players.

In 1973 John Maynard Smith applied game theory - first formalizedby John von Neumann and Oskar Morgenstern in 1953

to the evolution of animal strategies and introduced

the central concept evolutionary stable strategy (ESS).Animals not only compete but often share a resource

if that is beneficiary.


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Rather simple species display cooperation and theexplanation of the evolution of this unexpected behavior

is based on the special problem in the game theorythe prisoners dilemma.

Robert Axelrod found a winning strategy for repeatedprisoners dilemma. The winner: tit-for-tat: cooperate

and never be the first to defect, retaliate only after

your partner has defected, forgive and cooperateafter retaliating just once.

Altruism is an example of a non-zero-sum-game, i.e. a win-win game.The state when nobody can gain without somebody else losing

i.e. all win-win games are exhausted - is called the Paretooptimum. Innovations and more importantly,

scientific breakthroughs can increase the Pareto optimum.

In a global world the extreme of iterated prisoners dilemma


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g p

demands more than cooperation, more than tit-for-tat.

In all major cultures one basic moral law dominates:

Thou shalt love thy neighbor as thyself.(Lev.19:18, 1000 B.C.)

What you do not want others to do to you, do not doto others. (Confucius, 500 B.C.)

This is the sum of all true righteousness: deal with others as thouwouldst

thyself be dealt by. (The Mahabharata, 150 B.C.),

C. Darwin: As man advances in civilization, andtribes are united into larger communities, the simplest reasonwould tell each individual that he ought to extend his social

instincts and sympathies to all the members of the same nation.This point being reached, there is only an artificial barrier

to prevent his sympathies extending to men of all nations and races.


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Constantly increasing the Pareto optimum sciencegenerated

a global world. It can be almost said that the globalizationhas been pre-programmed it is the logic of humandestiny.

In our own selfish interest we have to get involved in

the betterment of global conditions. We need toemphasize

solidarity and compassion, increasing human optionsand

freedom rather than only competition, wealth andprofit.

A new paradigm emphasizes to berather than to have.


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IMPORTANCE OF MEASUREMENT (KELVIN)

MEASUREMENT DEPENDS ON THEORY (EINSTEIN)

Gross domestic product (GDP), improved and developedinto Human Development index (HDI) with inequalities

ratios

Environmental sustainability index (ESI),Globalization index (GI),

Competitiveness index (CI) and

Subjective well-being (SWB) which is the average ofhappiness and life satisfaction.

Country ESI HDI GCI GI HLS


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y

Range 0-100 0-1 Ranking Ranking:

62-1

0-100

Slovenia 58,8 0,879 31 25 69,5

Croatia 62,5 0,809 53 22 66,0B&H 51,3 - - - 61,5

S &MN - - - - 61

Macedonia 47,2 0,772 81 - 56

Romania - 0,775 75 40 59,5

Bulgaria - 0,779 64 - 45,0

Greece 50,9 0,885 35 26 -

Albania 59,7 0,733 - - -

Italy 47,2 0,913 41 24 84,5

Austria 64,2 0,926 17 8 81,5

Hungary 62,7 0,835 33 23 65,0

Czech Republic 50,2 0,849 39 15 69,5

Turkey 50,8 0,742 65 53 72,0

USA 53,2 0,939 2 11 89,5

Ireland 54,8 0,925 30 1 90,5


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5. SUSTAINABLE KNOWLEDGE SOCIETY

In his play Don Juan G. B. Shaw wrote to be in hell is to

drift, to be in heaven is to steer. and knowledge is needed

to steer.

Sustainable development is a dynamic state creatingconstantly

more human options and increasing the Pareto optimum.

Since knowledge is the best generator for increasing Paretooptimum we call such a state a sustainable knowledge-

based society.


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Science is the best source of reliable knowledge about the world

9 8

83

1417

68

24

12

64

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Disagree Unsure Agree

Percen

Scientists Legislators Public


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Public assesment of scientific research:1979-99

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

1999

1997

1995

1992

1990

1988

1985

1981

1979

Benef.sci.res. Benef.equal Harmful


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6. INTERTWINING KNOWLEDGE AND GOVERNANCE:

First, democracy is the best political system and it has to beconstantly improved to strengthen checks and balances.

Scientific activity is in many ways similar to democracy.It functions with minimum of formal structures, but it has

leadership, cooperation, rules of conduct and sanctionsagainst those who do not follow these rules. Scienceasks for transparency and new ideas, even heresy.

Politics of the past did not tolerate heresy and barely

accepted new ideas.


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Second, almost all major breakthroughs have beenaccomplished by the curiosity-driven research. It mightappear that the curiosity-driven research is morally neutral.

However, scientists as all citizens should be activeparticipants in democratic opinion making,

decision-making and in political actions.Einstein was an excellent example of a socially committed

scientist.

A. Einstein was the first citizen of a knowledge society.

Third, knowledge society cannot be an elite on an island


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d, o edge soc ety ca ot be a e te o a s a din a sea of mediocrity. The spirit of knowledge has to

permeate the entire society. Life-long educationencompassing the entire society is a condition

for building a knowledge society.

All countries are very far from that goal.

Only 21% of the EU working age population has

achieved tertiary education, compared with 38% inthe USA, 43% in Canada, 36% in Japan and 26% inSouth Korea. In the EU about 52% of the age group

is enrolled in higher education which is highercompared to 49% in Japan, but lags behind 59% in Canada,

81% in the USA and 82% in South Korea.

EU has 5.5% researchers per 1000 employees well below the9.0 in the USA or 9.7 in Japan.

7. CONCLUSION


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We need a sustainable knowledge society.In the European (civilization), Arabic

and Persian (madaniyya, tammadon) languagesthe word civilization is derived from city life

and laws relevant to living in a city.

By contrast, in Chinese and Japanese the words arewen ming(Chinese) and bun mei(Japanese) and they

suggest learning and enlightenment.

While a clash between systems governed by differentlaws is possible, the concept underlining learning and

enlightenment truly leads to a knowledge society.

It is not safe for apes to play with atoms. For the scientific

society to be democratic and to remain democratic, thepeople themselves must understand the nature of scientific

forces and the problems that dominate their lives.

Public understanding of scientific terms and concepts: 1999


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Public understanding of scientific terms and concepts: 1999

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

The continents are moving slowly

about on the face of the Earth

Light travels faster than sound

Knows that all radioactivity is not

manmade

Earliest humans did not l ive at tha time

of the dinosurs

The Earth goes around the Sun once a

year

Electrons are smaller than atoms

Knows lasers do not work by focusing

sound waves

Understands the term "DNA"

Understands the term "molecule"

Percent answering statements correctly

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

1999

1997

1995

DNA

1999

1997

1995

Molecule


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Nuclear power is simple when compared with the

complexities that the genetic research opens.It is not only more complex and richer,

it also advances in steps which do not need big R&Das the nuclear bomb did.

Edmund Burke wrote more than 200 years agoThe reason the world is suffering is not so much

because of the evil deeds of the wicked people, but

because of the inaction of the good people.

At the conference devoted to holocaust in Stockholmin 2000 the idea was put forward that

Ten Commandments should be augmented by two additional laws:11) Thou shalt not be a victim and

12) Thou shalt not be neutral.

The necessary condition for a sustainable knowledge

society is the active role of all its citizens.

predavanja dr. slaus 2008 (1)

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